Market Analysis, September 2016, Salt Spring Island

Salt Spring Island

Salt Spring Island

Beginning of the Fall Market

So…we begin the Fall Market…here it is, the beginning of September. The calendar says summer goes on till the 20th, but most of us see Labour Day Weekend as the “end”.

Sales volume in the Spring/early Summer market has gone up markedly on Salt Spring Island, in residential properties below $750,000. Over that price point, it remains softer.

In that entry-level residential segment, though, it could be described as sellers market conditions.

What does a seller’s market mean? Limited inventory plus strong buyer demand creates a seller’s market. Price escalation occurs with lack of product.

In a Gulf Island region, there is always a limited inventory

In a Gulf Island region, there is always a limited inventory. The Islands Trust, a provincial government body created in 1974, with the mandate to “preserve and protect” the environmental beauties of the Gulf Islands, for the benefit of all B.C. residents, also effectively “capped” growth.

On Salt Spring Island

On Salt Spring Island

Growth in the Gulf Islands is controlled by strict zoning/density bylaws. On Salt Spring, commercial zoning is focused in both upper and seaside Ganges Villages, and they can’t expand beyond their boundaries. The small commercially zoned options at Vesuvius, Fulford, and Fernwood cannot expand. Home occupations are encouraged, but there are rules around these usages, too.

As soon as growth is limited, values do appreciate over time. Between 2002 and 2005, prices escalated by around 60% on Salt Spring. Then a pause developed in 2006 and 2007. Late 2008 delivered the global economic downturn, and secondary home/recreational areas (globally) saw a sharp fall-off in activity. Between early 2009 and early 2015, prices locally had reduced by around 45%.

Buyers who acted between 2013 (the “worst” year?) and late 2015, have benefitted by that dramatic levelling off of prices, in the secondary home markets. It’s difficult for people to act before clear signals of a market shift are in place…those who do act seem to have that “wolf’s sniff the wind” directional arrow.

Important always, though, to be looking down the highway and not in the rear view mirror…opportunity is ahead.

By late 2015, one could see an improving trend coming into play in the secondary home markets. The Sunshine Coast and the Okanagan saw renewed activity in the Fall of 2015. Early Spring brought action to Victoria and to some Vancouver Island communities. Mid-Spring delivered activity to the Gulf Islands. Salt Spring (perhaps because of its year-round lifestyle opportunities) usually shows market improvement first, among the Gulf Islands choices.

The interesting thing is the change in the buyer profile for Salt Spring and the Gulf Islands: almost 100% from Vancouver.

Traditionally, a Gulf Island buyer has come from Alberta (perhaps 20% of coastal buyers?) or from the U.S. (perhaps 30% of coastal purchasers?). This time, it’s buyers from Vancouver, who have sold during the extremely “hot” market there. They are seeking new areas to reside…not just recreational/seasonal buyers, thus.

These previously Vancouver based buyers will live here year round, and that has all sorts of good outcomes for the day to day business life on the Island. Shop Local becomes a viable item when there is a year round resident, and not just a seasonal impact.

Within the past 11 weeks, sales volume dramatically rose (perhaps tripled?) in the entry-level residential segment. On Salt Spring, that would be between 300,000 and 750,000. Low inventory with high buyer demand leads to price escalation. Couple that with an area with a no-growth policy (Islands Trust) and you can see that we may be returning to that 2002 to 2005 model.

Opportunity continues to exist in upper tier priced residential, in undeveloped lots and acreages, in recreational cottages/cabins, and in commercial options. These market segments have not yet seen the quick sales of the entry level priced residential properties. As these property categories start to sell (and they are slowly becoming more and more active), and inventory begins to thin out, price points will also stabilize/rise.

The sales stats to date break out as follows.

January 1 to August 28 “solds to date”:

  • 26 sales between 1 and 200,000.
  • 29 sales between 2 and 300,000.
  • 47 sales between 3 and 400,000.
  • 45 sales between 4 and 500,000.
  • 44 sales between 5 and 600,000.
  • 26 sales between 6 and 700,000.
  • 10 sales between 7 and 800,000.
  • 9 sales between 8 and 900,000
  • 5 sales. between 9 and 1 million.
  • 16 sales between 1 and 2 million.
  • 3 sales between 2 and 3 million.
  • 2 sales between 3 and 4 million.

There is always opportunity in any market trend. Creativity wins the day in a discretionary region. A buyer’s market means lots of inventory and few buyers. A seller’s market means little inventory and lots of buyers seeking.

Market Analysis, August 2016, Salt Spring Island

Summer on the great Pacific Northwest Coast is a superb season…and the micro-climate enjoyed by Salt Spring Island and the Southern Gulf Islands is delectable.

Salt Spring Island

Salt Spring Island

It’s a short season…and here we are at a mid-point. Time to get out there and enjoy all of the amazing opportunities offered in our special Islands region.

A time for Inspiration

Lakefront swimming, ocean kayaking, sailing between alluring anchorages, savouring produce from farm gate stands, being inspired by artists and crafts artisans in galleries and on studio tours, enjoying live music venues, theatre productions, and a hiking/walking experience that re-introduces one to the natural world preserved on the Gulf Islands.

The real estate market has recovered on the Gulf Islands in what I call the residential entry-level property segment. On Salt Spring, that would be 350,000 to 750,000 price range.

It does appear that the Spring market in the Gulf Islands is about sales in that entry level residential category.

Between mid-July and end of November, upper tier priced residential properties begin to find their buyers.

Some years back (and who knows why), the Gulf Islands became a late summer/fall real estate marketplace.

This market analysis is always written at the beginning of a month. For market updates, reflecting the rest of the month’s outcomes, check out my blog. Also check back to my June and July “reports”…this is a very new recovery (just 10 weeks old? After an 8 year downturn.).

So, the first half of the year saw the following breakdown of sales (January first to July 18th):

  • 19 sales up to 200,000.
  • 26 sales between 200 and 300,000
  • 40 sales between 300 and 400,000
  • 43 sales between 400 and 500,000
  • 37 sales between 500 and 600,000
  • 24 sales between 600 and 700,000
  • 9 sales between 700 and 800,000
  • 5 sales between 800 and 900,000
  • 5 sales between 900 and one million
  • 12 sales between 1 and 2 million. (most below 1.7)
  • 1 sale between 2 and 3 million
  • 1 sale between 3 and 4 million

You can see, then, that the Spring market is about the beginning stirrings of the authentic recovery. From mid-July to end of November it’s the upper tier time.

An outcome of thinning inventory is price increase…for the moment, a buyer may have to meet the benchmark set by the seller, as listings diminish. Sales volume may have tripled, and prices may have stabilized…but price increases have not yet been strongly evident. As we ease into the Fall market, we may start to see prices escalate.

Why Should you Purchase on Salt Spring>

Why consider a purchase on Salt Spring Island or a Gulf Island? One thought: the Islands Trust (created in 1974) effectively capped growth on the Gulf Islands. A limited inventory, combined with a strong buyer demand, creates a higher price point for all purchases. It’s the economic axiom that low supply plus high demand equals price escalation. A property purchase on a Gulf Island is perhaps a protected investment.

Perhaps a more important reason for a Salt Spring Island or Gulf Islands purchase: to enjoy a softer, gentler lifestyle, with an emphasis on the natural world and the impact of an artists voice.

Salt Spring and the Southern Gulf Islands are an easy commute to Vancouver, to Victoria, and to Seattle. Whether by ferry (3 different regular scheduled ferries service Salt Spring) or by floatplane (regular sked flights to downtown Vancouver, to Vancouver Airport, from Salt Spring), it’s very easy to come and to go…and yet these Island gems swim enticingly apart in the Salish Sea.

Proximity to major centres, yet serenely apart. All opportunities in the 21st Century available, yet an alluring yesteryear ambiance. A thoughtful and caring community, yet strong opinions. Definitely an interesting place to reside!

Market Analysis, July 2016, Salt Spring Island

‘Tis The Season!

July is the mid-point in our year and is also the beginning of our “real season” in real estate showings and subsequent sales. Salt Spring and the Gulf Islands, and many of the Vancouver Island communities, are secondary home markets. They are busiest between July and October.

salt

Secondary home/recreational areas do not follow the sales rhythms of primary residence/city regions. Thus, although eventually propelling activity in discretionary areas, Vancouver and Victoria real estate outcomes are quite different from those on Salt Spring or Mayne or Gabriola or in Parksville.

The huge sales volume in Vancouver, with resulting price increases, appears to now be mirrored in some parts of Victoria. That kind of sales frenzy is never the outcome on a Gulf Island or on Vancouver Island…the Islands are “by choice”/discretionary areas. By choice, I will buy on Salt Spring…by choice, I’m moving to Pender…by choice, I’m considering Qualicum…and so on.

What does this mean for a seller in these secondary home regions?

It’s become essential to have maintained one’s property.

It may be that all those popular HGTV style home shows have created a buyer who expects things to be “done”. Buyers do not want to call in a contractor…they are not looking for a fixer upper or a handyman special. If one has that kind of deferred maintenance property to sell, it may be necessary to come to market with a severely below market price tag. It’s interesting, this lack of buyer desire for a property needing “work”.

A new roof, a new deck, a septic system in good order, a well with water treatment system in place…these are now considered essentials. Interior items? Kitchens and bathrooms remain the two key components that will attract a buyer’s interest. Next would be flooring choices. Home ownership does bring with it consistent maintenance care. Renovations to update an older more dated home are often required.

Stiff Competition Remains

In our global post-Internet world, all secondary home areas are in competition with each other. It’s not just about a Salt Spring property being in competition with another Salt Spring home. A Salt Spring property is now competing for a buyer’s attention with a home on Galiano or on Thetis or in South Cowichan or in Parksville or in Courtenay/Comox…and also in Sidney or in Victoria. That means that a buyer also has to choose for the community itself, and not just a house in that location.

One thing that is of interest for any purchase on any Gulf Island: the form of governance has “capped” growth via strict zoning/density controls. The Islands Trust’s mandate (in place since 1974) is to preserve and protect the Gulf Islands. There is no opportunity then to see an explosion of growth on any Gulf Island.

On Salt Spring, as one drives about the Island, one is pretty well looking at “what is”. This retained beauty is important, but a cap on growth also leads to an escalation of prices, over time. Buyer interest coupled with low inventory of properties does lead to price stability and price rises.

The past downturn in all secondary home markets, and globally so, has eased or ended. It was a long eight year downturn. That lack of buyer interest did lead to lots of inventory and to lower prices. This is apparently now over.

Sales volume has dramatically increased on Salt Spring and inventory has returned to low levels.

The same dynamic is in play on other Gulf Islands and on Vancouver Island.

The difference from previous times? That competition factor. A house in Qualicum is competing with one on Salt Spring which is competing with a property in Sidney…the playing field between locations has broadened.

This means that one has to sell Salt Spring itself, not just the property located there. Hmmm….another reason to shop local and so to ensure the continuing allure of Salt Spring Island? Interested in how to help to do this? Connect with the Chamber of Commerce and become a supporter of the entire community.

At this mid-point moment: between $300,000 and $750,000 price range, there are very few residential options left. Spring sales volume doubled and little new inventory came onstream. Low inventory plus renewed buyer interest leads to price increases.

Now, we are seeing interest in undeveloped land…with a view to putting up a modular or packaged home…or building a cottage and then the house. This scenario might allow one to remain at budget.

Slowly, we are seeing the upper tier priced residential offerings capturing interest. Inventory is also thin in that price point. There is renewed interest in commercial options.

Market Analysis, June 2016, Salt Spring Island

Seasonless Investment Opportunities

Here we are, entering what might be seen as the mid-point of our year.

Although in a way seasonless, with people visiting the Island and also seeking property investments, at any time throughout the year, the main grid of real estate sales action does fall between May 2016, Salt Spring Market Analysis and October 2015, Market Analysis.

Salt Spring Island

Salt Spring Island

Here we are, entering what might be seen as the mid-point of our year.

Although in a way seasonless, with people visiting the Island and also seeking property investments, at any time throughout the year, the main grid of real estate sales action does fall between May and October.

June can be a quieter month, at least in the first weeks. Perhaps it’s because of the school “year end” activities, graduations, weddings, planning for summer vacations…there is often a brief “pause” in the first days of this month. By the last week, though, summer-summer is with us.

Salt Spring Family

This is the Year

This is the year of an authentic market recovery (after an eight year downturn of huge proportions). It began, on Salt Spring & the Gulf Islands, about 9 weeks ago. Very new, then.

At the moment, the main sales have been in residential…and on Salt Spring mainly between 400,000 and 750,000. There are some few sales between 900,000 and 1.8 million.

Salt Spring Island

Salt Spring Island

Slowly, slowly we are seeing an improving trend in Skywater Acres, Undeveloped Land Salt Spring Island, in upper tier priced residential, and in commercial options. The brisk sales in that 400 to 700,000 residential range have mainly been to buyers from Vancouver…most of them have sold to off-shore buyers, and are thus seeking their new lifestyle alternatives. Last Fall, they were buying on Sunshine Coast and in Okanagan. Then, their attention turned to this side of Georgia Strait. First, into Victoria…and now throughout Vancouver Island and the Gulf Islands.

Vancouver Residents Now Call Salt Spring Home!

The traditional buyer profile on Salt Spring and the Gulf Islands had been from Alberta, Canada and the U.S. Some few buyers from the U.K. and Europe…plus from Asia…and some retirees from Ontario. The Alberta and U.S. buyers have not currently been in evidence. This influx from Vancouver buyers is something new.

Things about our Trust You Should Know

The Gulf Islands form of governance is managed by the provincial government (Islands Trust). Two elected trustees every civic election. The Trust documents were put in place in 1974. Growth is strictly controlled by strong zoning/density bylaws. The CRD (Capital Regional District) also has an elected representative on Salt Spring.

The Trust’s mandate is “to preserve and protect” the environmental beauties of the Gulf Islands, for the benefit of all B.C. residents. These restrictions effectively capped growth, and so there is always a thin inventory of properties for sale on the Gulf Islands, regardless of market trend in place. Finite inventory creates price escalation, over time.

Opportunities to Give Back

I notice that there is a strong volunteer spirit alive and well on Salt Spring Island. Volunteers have been behind: ArtSpring, Library, indoor pool, the pathways for pedestrians on main roads, trails in parks for hikers/walkers, etc. Lately, it’s been a fundraising effort to add a squash court to the indoor tennis building on the golf course property.

Kathy Reimer’s work to bring the fish back to spawn in the creeks on Salt Spring is an amazing example of the spirit of volunteerism. So many similar stories….

I think, when the boardwalk (sea walk? Harbour walk?) is completed, we should have a lovely curving stone wall there, one that would allow for “thank you plaques”…so many volunteers over the years who have contributed to the Salt Spring community. Time for a commemoration feature to thank them? Long overdue!

So, a pleasing and thoughtful and energetic community, in a scenically beautiful region, with a stellar marine environment, and with a limited amount of developable land (the rest is preserved in natural state)…hmmm…a recipe for property investment of a unique kind?

Markets have a rhythm. After that 8 year downturn, the local real estate market is on the uptick. Couple market action with the non-growth governance model and one can see why a Salt Spring or Gulf Island property purchase is at a higher price point than in some other areas.

There is always opportunity, regardless of market trend.

With low inventory, and high buyer demand, the result is always higher prices. In some price segments, we are already noting seller’s market conditions. Perhaps by late Fall, we will see this in all property categories.

A market is a wave pattern…crest, trough, crest…we appear to be on the way to a crest moment again.

Market Analysis, May 2016, Salt Spring Island

Market Analysis, May 2016, Salt Spring Island

Market Recovery - Salt Spring Island

Salt Spring Island

Signs of a Seller’s Market Recovery

Yes, it’s really true…after an 8 year market downturn, we are finally seeing a resurgence of authentic activity in our secondary home/discretionary real estate market.

Many listings had followed the market down. Fine properties and well-marketed…but few buyers around. In a downmarket, buyers are scarce. In past five weeks, many of these long listed properties have now sold. Very few new listings are coming onstream to replace these steady “solds“…this is the sign of a seller’s market.

At the moment, it appears that sales volume has doubled over the same period as last year and that prices have stabilized (meaning that the buyers are having to offer close to or at list price to secure a property). Price rises and back-up offers may be next.

Salt Spring Island Ganges Harbour - Market Recovery

Salt Spring Island Ganges Harbour

Vancouver Origin

This authentic recovery is very new…began from one-day-to-the-next, approximately 5 weeks ago. Most buyers are from Vancouver. They have sold properties in Vancouver’s hot market, and are now seeking alternative places.

In late Fall of 2015, these property seekers were first looking on Sunshine Coast & in Okanagan communities.

Finally, it’s now the turn of Salt Spring, Gulf Islands, and Vancouver Island, to be considered as the new lifestyle choices.

The desire for a unique hard asset investment is strong again. The “safe haven” seeking may also be a part of sales in our beautiful coastal region. The natural rhythm of a market recovery…every 10 years there is an uptick?…is also a part of this return to a strong sales pattern. There is never just one reason for a market recovery.

Recoveries are never even-handed, especially when they first begin. There remain very pleasing properties at approachable prices. There are still opportunities for a buyer.

As residential offerings continue to thin out, it may be that an undeveloped land purchase will be in a buyer’s favour. Build a cottage, or barge on a home being saved from a city’s destruction, or consider a package home.

A renovation project on great land should always be considered.

Call me for ideas that work.

Creative financing can be a buyer’s friend in an upmarket trend.

April 2016, Market Analysis

April 2016 – Salt Spring & The Gulf Islands

Salt Spring Island

Salt Spring Island

I always think that the Salt Spring Island & Gulf Islands marketplace falls into thirds: January to April encompasses early Spring/”real Spring”. May to September could be seen as our “main season”. October to December can still be busy with actual sales, but viewings most likely took place between April and September.

Even in the 8 year downturn (late 2008 to late 2015), the scarce viewings/sales still followed this rough “third/third/third” timeline.

Solidly in a Market Shift

We are now solidly in a market shift, with a strong upward direction. In this first “third” of the overall market, inventory has been dramatically clearing out…especially in properties below $600,000. The spread between list & sale price points has narrowed appreciably in that same price segment. Between $600,000 & $900,000, the buyer is still momentarily in control of outcomes, re pricings. Fewer action in these early weeks in the “over a million” price range.

The key is always inventory…as it clears out, leaving very few options for a buyer to choose from, prices first stabilize and then rise.

For first time in 8 years, the secondary home/recreational/discretionary markets are on “the improve” side of the equation.

Previously, many buyers on Salt Spring/Gulf Islands came from Alberta. Post-commodities “crash”, this buyer profile has disappeared (for now).

Another strong buyer profile in the past has been a U.S. purchaser. In spite of our lower dollar, we are not seeing renewed interest (yet!) out of U.S.

So, where are these early responder buyers coming from?

At the moment, they are coming out of Vancouver. The six key neighbourhoods finding out-of-country buyers are propelling those sellers to other areas…buying down & putting $$ in the bank.

Salt Spring Island

Salt Spring Island


Initially (Fall/2015), these buyers were looking in the Okanagan (Kelowna) & on the Sunshine Coast. Now, they are looking on this side of Georgia Strait (Vancouver Island, Gulf Islands (particularly Salt Spring Island), & Victoria).

Such a buyer coming to look at Salt Spring is also looking at Vancouver Island & in Victoria. Salt Spring has competition, then, for that buyer. They are ready to buy, as they have sold their homes in those 6 busy neighbourhoods in Vancouver.

Many properties on Salt Spring followed the market down. No one’s fault…it was just “the market”. Now, after that 8 year downturn, the market says: we’re on the way back up. The difference? The buyer is back.

One always has to sell a Gulf Island itself first…before one can sell a property on that Island. A secondary home/discretionary market is about choice. If someone likes a property, but doesn’t like the Island it’s located on, then they will not buy. It’s always a 2-step dance on any Gulf Island.

Salt Spring Island

Salt Spring Island


Right now, then, Salt Spring is benefitting from a return of a buyer…willing to act, & not just to look. That said, it’s important to treat these qualified (they have sold their Vancouver property) buyers with respect. They do not “have to” move to Salt Spring. Competing areas are part of the current buyer decision process.

Even in the very busy time on the Gulf Islands (2002 to 2005), sales were not automatic…one still had to “choose for” the Island before “deciding for” a property on it.

Sellers and buyers may change places on any given market trend, but both of them are a part of a successful transaction. A buyer’s market is characterized by lots of listings & few buyers…the scant number of buyers acting are in control of outcomes re prices. A seller’s market is characterized by few listings & lots of buyers. As inventory cleans out, sellers are in control of prices. However, it takes a willing seller & a willing buyer to have a successful transaction take place, regardless of market trend. In the end, there has to be “agreement”.