Tag Archives: market analysis

Salt Spring Island, September 2023, Market Analysis

Earlier Sunsets on Salt Spring

A lovely month in the Gulf Islands and on Salt Spring Island…September retains Summer moments and slowly segues into true Fall. Shorter days, earlier sunsets, star-watching pleasures, and the delectable harvest time.

On Salt Spring? Catch the amazing Fall Fair (September 9/10)…the old island meets the current one and each day is totally different. Don’t miss this annual event. The Ganges Galleries are showcasing the output of their signature artists, ArtSpring events are offered, and ArtCraft will gently close for the season. Wine and cider tastings, Saturday and Tuesday Farmers Markets continue, and farmgate stands are showcasing their produce. Lucky SaltSpringers! Labour Day Holiday Weekend starts the month.

Fall Market Salt Spring Real Estate

And what about that Fall Market in real estate? Several years ago, Summer and Fall became a busy time in the Gulf Islands. It can be busier than the Spring market, and some call this time of year “the second Spring”.

Although the 2023 year began late (mid-April?), it was consistent. Inventory remained low. Entry-level price points and residential listings found most of the action in the Spring/early Summer timeline. Towards mid-August, some upper tier priced properties also found their buyers. It is usual to see higher end opportunities finding their buyers in September/October/November, year after year.

Low inventory is likely to continue. Unless they have to, most owners are not interested in being sellers. IF they were interested in selling, they can’t find listings in the areas they might consider moving to. No one wants to be houseless.

Lack of Construction + Invitation for Immigration

The Canadian government’s invitation for immigration (500,000 + a year) bumps into the past forty years of lack of construction. Strong desire to buy, coupled with lack of housing options, result in price escalation. A lack of affordable housing (whether to purchase or rent) remains a Canada-wide issue.

Why Invest on Salt Spring Island

Salt Spring and the Gulf Islands governance model is under the provincial government body known as the Islands Trust (created in 1974). The purpose was to preserve and protect the environmental beauties of the Gulf Islands for the benefit of all B.C. residents. In a sense, these islands are like park reserves. Growth is capped via strong zoning/bylaws restrictions. The Islands Trust restrictions also keep inventory low, regardless of market trends.

Concern over currency uncertainties may be another factor in low inventory…choosing hard assets is one way to preserve capital in uncertain times. Owning property on Salt Spring and the Gulf Islands can be viewed as an important decision in one’s investment portfolio.

Seeking a successful real estate outcome on Salt Spring and the Gulf Islands? It’s very important to me that things work to optimum for you, whether selling or buying. Questions? Call me. Your best outcomes truly are my motivation. Information is key.

Fall is the season of mellow fruitfulness…

Meantime…it’s early September and the season offers beauty everywhere. September 1st is meteorological Fall…in spite of the calendar saying it’s summer till the 20th. As the poet John Keats described, Fall is the season of mellow fruitfulness.

Time to hike the trails at Ruckle Park, the Mt Erskine trail system, the Channel Ridge trails. Time to dine out at our amazing restaurants and taste the delights of the harvest season. Time to meander the galleries and discover the meaning of talent. Time to star watch and ponder a bigger picture. Time to choose fresh veggies and fruits at farm markets and test drive your culinary skills. Time to welcome the cosy season.

Fall’s softer season is there to enjoy. Accept the invitation.

Salt Spring Island, February 2023, Market Analysis

February…and the slow slide into Spring begins.

It’s a short month, with a romantic allure on Valentine’s Day (Feb 14th), and a weekend holiday on B.C. Family Day (Feb 20th) Weekend.

Yes, a mix of winter and early spring, with that freshening sense of new beginnings (always the welcome message of real Spring).

Early Real Estate Patterns Emerging

What about the real estate patterns that are also beginning to emerge? It often takes until mid-March to get the tone of a market in a secondary home marketplace, such as the Gulf Islands. The buyer profile on the Gulf Islands is not local…buyers arrive from elsewhere…and for the last several years (perhaps fully since 2015?), the main buyer has been from Vancouver/Lower Mainland.

After the first pandemic closures in early 2020, real estate activity began…the flight from urban to rural was the main driver to action. The ability of the internet to authentically allow the option to work from home, no matter that location, also was in place by 2020…allowing that rural shift to successfully take place.

In 2021, the inventory thinned out dramatically in all rural areas and in some cases there were bidding wars (more buyers than sellers). The low inventory continued throughout 2022, but buyers were pausing…inquiries came in, viewings would take place, but activity from buyers had slowed. Uncertainty was the culprit.

In the latter part of 2022, worries about the impact of distant wars, supply chain issues, concerns about lingering pandemic and health outcomes, fears about rising interest rates, currency concerns, reports of a global recession…all of these uncertainties had buyers simply treading water…are we safe? That seemed to be the major question. A pause is not necessarily a correction.

Lack of supply is what keeps prices stable and potentially tracking higher. The federal government is seeking immigration of 500,000 each year for the next two years. At the same time, they are putting a two year ban on foreign ownership. (There are many exemptions and one of them is that the ban will not apply to recreational areas (such as the Gulf Islands). Check the federal government website for further details).

Less Supply, More Demand…

CMHC (Canadian Mortgage and Housing) forecast last year that unless 22 million housing units were built by 2030, there would be no alleviation of the lack of supply in Canada. So: few housing units and increased immigration…sounds like a recipe for price increases, in foreseeable future. Hmmm…..

It is interesting, when looking back to previous serious recessionary times, that real estate usually softens a year before other indicators point to such outcomes. If so, that would put 2022 as the softened year in real estate. From early March to early December, 2022, the hesitation in buyer activity did see some dramatic price reductions, to try to jumpstart sales action. In most cases, these reductions did not result in either more viewings or in sales. When a buyer is treading water, it means a period of inaction. Real estate also often recovers sooner than other lagging sectors.

Unusual Active January

In early 2023 (January, often a quiet month), it became active again (working around bursts of winter weather, of course). Sales of some properties that had been listed over a year, and with reductions that had been ignored, suddenly took place. As we enter the very beginning of February, inventory remains extraordinarily low.

Owners do not want to be sellers, it appears, unless they have to. To own a property in a unique area, where the Islands Trust form of governance effectively capped growth (in 1974), may be seen as a stalwart investment…a hedge against inflation and currency pressures. Buyer choice remains limited. By April, media reporting may be highlighting this renewed buyer activity and the lack of listings. More information? Contact me (liread33@gmail.com).

A Time of New Possibilities

We are all prisoners of our time…this current time period is full of unknowns and uncertainties and this does create hesitations. It may also be a time of new possibilities. Ever more important to sharpen up our editing skills. We are all swimming in a sea of raw data…making sense of it is a task indeed.

February is a good month to read, listen to webinars and podcasts, attend investment seminars, to glean bits of wisdom to guide us, to take the information in and then to see what makes sense individually. Also important to keep up to date on AI discoveries…things like ChatGPT could be serious game changers for our era. We are now all, in a way, our own experts. Important to trust our own inner editor.

Meantime, it’s inspiring February. Early flowering shrubs, snow drops and crocus bulbs are up, early daffodils in protected areas are smiling hello. Remember to get out and about in the natural world. In our digital universe it is ever more important to really “see” our companion natural environment. Walking meditation is a lovely entry to such appreciation.

February…an invitation to softer days, lighter days, and all that an early Spring promises. Enjoy!

February…and the slow slide into Spring begins.

It’s a short month, with a romantic allure on Valentine’s Day (Feb 14th), and a weekend holiday on B.C. Family Day (Feb 20th) Weekend.

Salt Spring Island, December 2022, Market Analysis

The first of December is considered meteorological Winter, although the calendar says it begins on the 20th. The great Pacific Northwest Coast experiences shorter days (dark by 4:30 p.m.) and every year is slightly different, weather-wise. This year promises snow and arctic cold. I prefer the usual rain that has our west coast location often described as “the famously wet coast”. (I am allergic to snow at sea level).

Salt Spring Island

Things To Do on Salt Spring Island This Winter

Lots of art gallery openings and receptions in December, plus the annual WinterCraft at Mahon Hall until the 23rd, the annual Beaver Point and Fulford Hall craft fairs (December 2 to 4), and other loved pop-ups…closed for two seasons due to covid closures, these displays of artistic flair are welcomed. ArtSpring offers choral/seasonal concerts…check out the website for dates. Enjoy the lights in the Village, and the decorated shops. Tasty special menus at coffee stops and restaurants…decorated farm gate stands encourage a jaunt around the island. Live music venues (Moby’s, the Legion) are fun. Check out the Christmas on Salt Spring events (the Chamber of Commerce website or Visitors Centre). Does Santa really arrive by floatplane?

Close to major centres and yet wonderfully apart…a visit to a Gulf Island/to Salt Spring Island can be a restorative and peaceful experience at this softer Winter season.

Real estate at this end of the year

Real estate at this end of the year time is still consistently chugging along. Buyers remain interested and active. Snow storms mean some delays for some viewings, but Winter does not last long in our region. Inquiries remain strong. Winter is often a weekend business in a secondary home market. The lack of inventory remains a factor. The desire for a buyer to leave the city and to live in the country is still the main reason for activity. That authentic internet connectivity allows this profound lifestyle change. A softer gentler lifestyle seems to be the goal. A very human need: to be safe.

Housing Supply & Purchase Taxation

The governments (provincial and federal) are attempting to solve the lack of affordable housing supply through taxation (offshore purchase taxation, empty home (speculation) tax, moratorium on non-Canadian buyers, interest rate rises), and yet the federal government is also looking for 1.5 million immigrants by 2025. CMHC has forecast that 22 million housing units would need to be in place by 2030, to solve this “lack of housing” crisis (not including immigration pressures).

First time buyers are affected by the series of interest rate rises. Some experts are forecasting more rate rises to come…others think not (possibly fearing societal unrest?).

Affordability is tied to supply…instead of taxing existing options, which does not grow supply, governments need to encourage construction…an entrepreneurial answer to supply and demand issues.

Real Estate – Still A solid hard asset investment

Meantime, real estate remains a solid hard asset investment (especially during currency fluctuations) and keeps pace with inflation.

December is a time to be thoughtful, a time to acknowledge traditions and to practice the art of gratitude. A time to create new traditions and to include those on their own in our celebrations. It’s fun to research other seasonal events and definitely important to have lots of candles, have a fire in the hearth, and to invite light into our homes. Maybe a year to reread Charles Dickens’ classic: A Christmas Carol?

Feasting is allowed. A pause is encouraged.

December…a time of joy. Good to partake.

Salt Spring Island, November 2022, Market Analysis

What about the real estate market as November begin

November…the season of craft fairs and holiday events. Standard Time returns (Fall back, remember). Shorter days/longer nights…rain, rain/sun mix, golden leaves scratching across pavement, temperatures cooling quickly.

After a 90 day warm and sunny drought, with rivers and creeks so dry the spawning salmon could not fulfill their October cycle, everyone is glad to see November rains appear.

November also brings Remembrance Day…wear your poppy, and if on Salt Spring try to be at the cenotaph for this annual community tribute. Thank you to those who served.

What about the real estate market as November begins? Several years ago, Salt Spring and the Southern Gulf Islands became a Fall Market. Although basically a seasonless marketplace, with buyers arriving throughout the year, there are high point times for sales. Fall is one of them. Late August to year end can be busy.

The Spring/Summer market was a holding pattern

2022 saw a “six weeks late” scenario. Spring was late (remember Juneuary?). The farming community noted that the growing season was six weeks later than usual. This flat-line “pause” seemed to be mirrored in real estate activity. The Spring/Summer market was a holding pattern.
Salt Spring
If 2021 was the year of consistent sales and multiple offers, 2022 has been the year of “maybe”, from a buyer perspective. (Maybe I will decide to buy a property…or maybe I’ll see how things play out. What about interest rate rises? When will there be more inventory to choose from? Will prices go down substantially? Should I act now or wait and see? What about all the chaos globally? Supply chain issues? Wars and rumours of wars? Will renewal of covid shut things down again?). Worry is the background sound of 2022. Uncertainty can create pauses in action.

 

A pause is not a correction

Mount Baker
A series of substantial price reductions took place in late Spring/early Summer, but many of these reduced properties still remained without showings or sales. The six plus week pause in activity was not about price, then. Worry, worry, worry…and worry makes a buyer just tread water. A pause is not a correction.

Lack of supply is the key to market outcomes. The low inventory in properties for sale will continue. Inward migration is also a factor. The flight from urban to rural remains a principal driver of action. Time is a component in most secondary home sales, once again. Media reporting on all markets is always reactive, not predictive. September “reports” might be reflecting June…December will give the picture of September…and so on. The bottom line: lack of supply and desire to buy.

Activity is filling in again

As buyers slowly digest the parameters of this softer marketplace, activity is filling in again. A desire to be safe, and to preserve one’s capital…these are strong reasons for a buyer interest in rural lifestyles. The authentic ability to work from home, via a robust internet, is a further stimulus to a rural decision. To be “apart”, as 2023 unfolds…with its suggestion of further upheaval…perhaps makes good sense.

Ganges

So…November. On Salt Spring and the Gulf Islands? Catch the galleries and craft fairs…special and unique opportunities to “shop local”. Dine out at our amazing and varied restaurants…local produce & talented chefs. Hike the trails around the islands on the finer Fall days. Try a restorative spa ritual. Galleries invite one to enjoy the amazing artistic talent. Remember the value of taking time…a softer season reminds us how to “see”. Maybe join a choral group…or learn line dancing (yes, they still do this). Evening classes offer new discoveries.

Seeking your special Gulf Islands property? Benefit from my knowledge (of trends and inventory) and expertise (managing broker licence). Your best interests are my motivation. I look forward to hearing from you (liread33@gmail.com).

Softer…slower…a different kind of rhythm. Salt Spring smiles its November hello.

Salt Spring Island, October 2022, Market Analysis

October is beginning with a continuing long late summer weather pattern. The beauty of this harvest season is visible everywhere on the Pacific Northwest Coast.

It’s also the civic election time in B.C. (every four years), and it seems that all communities are seeing many people running for only a few seats…many more people are wanting to be involved than there are available spaces.   Salt Spring is no exception.

Usually, civic/community elections are lackluster…it’s provincial and federal elections that capture attention. The community level is very important, as it guides the day to day lives of those who live there. Important to get out and vote. Be informed.

Support the candidate that reflects your views. Those elected will be in place for the next four years.  The Gulf Islands form of governance (Islands Trust) means each island votes for two trustees and also for a CRD director. Apathy is not a choice in 2022.

October is the Canadian Thanksgiving month…an authentic Harvest season. It’s the perfect time to be a visitor on the Gulf Islands.   The micro-climate on these islands supports vineyards, wineries, cideries, farmers markets, and the park hiking/walking trails beckon. Galleries showcase the artistic culture that creates the ambiance of the Gulf Islands.

The real estate market?   Low inventory remains a factor.   Sales do take place in all price ranges.   The frenzy market of 2021 is over, but buyer inquiries remain strong.   Uncertainties create hesitations, but action is still happening.   There are both price reductions and also new listings that come onstream with higher than expected pricings.

The key to all markets is supply and the flight from urban to rural remains a key demand motivator in deciding for a purchase of a country property.   Increased interest rates do affect first time buyers, and hesitations/pauses in action are a feature, but sales activity remains consistent in many secondary home locales.   More information on current listings and sales on Salt Spring Island, as the market evolves?   Contact me for updates.   Thank you.

Meantime: it’s October…a month for star-watching as the days shorten and crisper evenings invite us to watch our skies.   The annual Apple Festival on Salt Spring, the Thanksgiving holiday weekend, the gallery openings and receptions, the ArtSpring events, the switch to Sunday races at the Sailing Club, the Saturday and Tuesday farmers markets, the olive grove and vineyard and apple orchard harvests and creation of new wines/new ciders…this is a time of beauty and the gift of restorative Nature.
The ease of the Fall Season is with us.   Enjoy!

Salt Spring Island, September 2022, Market Analysis

Back to school always signals the end of summer, even though the calendar says Fall is not official till September 20th. In the great Pacific Northwest Coast region, both September and October can be harvest months of tranquil beauty.

Lots happening in September, on delectable Salt Spring: Fall Fair, gallery openings, ArtSpring presentations, live music and patio dining pleasures continue, dine with an inspiring view at one of our amazing restaurants (Auntie Pesto’s, Seaside, Moby’s, Salt Spring Inn, Treehouse, Rock Salt, Hastings House). Farm gate stands, Tuesday Farmers Market, Saturday Market…enjoy the agricultural harvests. Check into the Visitors Centre (a Chamber initiative) to find out what else is happening in serene September.

How about that real estate market? We all realize that 2022 is not the frenzy observed in 2021.

That said, listing inventory on the Gulf Islands remains low. The desire to leave urban for the rural lifestyle remains strong. Most buyers continue to come from Vancouver and they plan to live on the Gulf Island of their choice.
Skywater Acres

Salt Spring offers a year-round lifestyle: has a hospital, 3 elementary and a state of the art senior school, has 3 separate ferries (to Vancouver, to Victoria, to mid-Vancouver Island), and regular sked year-round floatplane service to downtown Vancouver and to the airport.

The Islands Trust – Provincial Body, created 1974

The form of governance on the unincorporated Gulf Islands is a provincial government body created in 1974…to “preserve & protect” the environmental beauties of the islands for the benefit of all B.C. residents. The Islands Trust resulting cap on growth means real estate will always be more expensive as there will always be a limited inventory. Add a frenzy market, as in 2021, on top of the Trust cap on growth, and you get the “over ask” scenario.

What’s Next

The immediate aftermath of overheated markets is generally a flat/pause pattern. The Spring / early Summer Market saw this pause locally in buyer action. Inquiries continued and some viewings did take place, but often there was no resulting offer. Reflecting this “pause” in action, we saw some substantial price reductions from some companies. These aggressive reductions did not lead to sales activity. The pause was not about price.

2022 may end by being characterized as a Fall Market, with sales taking place between mid-August and year end.

Why Should I Buy Real Estate?

It’s important to think about buying a property as a place for personal enjoyment…that you will live there…and not as a type of market investment. Houses are places to reside. If you buy what you like, and resale enters the picture, someone else will also appreciate your choice. Always buy from the heart and not the head. Markets go up and down and go flat…sales continue, always. Timing can be different (slow, fast, balanced), but outcomes continue. To enjoy one’s personal space is the key.

Spring is upon us, Salt spring

So, entering September, we find continuing low inventory. Sales in all property types and price ranges do take place, but the rush to purchase has eased. Price reductions at the point of an offer are also taking place. One might call this a balanced market. Buyer interest in living in a rural environment continues. Working from home is still desired. The rush to buy anything/anywhere is over. Although interest rates are rising, and this does affect first time buyers, transactions continue.

More information on market conditions and projected trends? Call me. Seeking to sell or to buy a property on Salt Spring and the Gulf Islands? I look forward to bringing my knowledge, expertise, and experience to your benefit.

Meantime, beautiful September’s harvest season is here…enjoy.