Tag Archives: market analysis

February 2025 – Preview – Market Analysis

Salt Spring Island

Salt Spring Island

Lovely February, usually a traditional coastal reminder of the coming Spring, is visiting our coastal region wearing its Winter face. An Arctic Front is being forecast, with significant snow for Vancouver Island and the Gulf Islands. No one is ever ready for this weather downturn, especially after a Spring-like January. That said, it might only last a week…definitely a soft version of a real Winter.

It’s difficult to suggest a usual first day of a new month market report, this time around. Threatened tariffs from U.S. will affect Canada if put in place. February 1st was stated as the date they would kick in. As soon as an outcome is known, will make my “early month report”.

Meantime, listing inventory remains exceedingly low. Prices have remained relatively stable. After two and a half years of buyer inaction, sales did slowly begin in last quarter of 2024, with projections that this activity would continue in 2025.

The tariff issue with Canada’s largest trading partner is the wild card item. More later!

October 2024 – Market Analysis – Salt Spring Island

The Real Estate Market in Fall

October arrives with harvest season fully in play, with shorter days, crisper nights, and star-watching as the winter constellation of Orion climbs up the sky. Special events at ArtSpring, gallery openings in Ganges, Parks and Recreation offerings at the indoor pool, and the Canadian Thanksgiving Holiday Weekend mid-month.

The real estate market is also fully in play with the Fall Market (often called the “second Spring”). People may have viewed opportunities earlier and now have decided to offer. In some cases, new listings pop up as owners who chose to enjoy another summer have now listed for Fall. It’s a buoyant time.

Market Trends and Buyer Hesitation


Low inventory continues. Although the summer season (June, July, August) was quiet in sales across Canada, prices remained stable. The BOC (Bank of Canada) interest rate cuts (three so far) have not generated a corresponding buyer action. Buyers are still hesitant.

If a buyer needs to stay under a million on Salt Spring, the choice is a townhome. A single-family home requires one to consider a purchase in the range of 1.1 to 1.45 million, and this range will most likely require upgrades or renovations. To find a ready-to-go home, one will need to consider a price range between 1.6 and 2.1 million. Waterfront options are higher. If upgrades are needed, oceanfront listings can be found in the 1.7 to 2.3 million range. A ready-to-go waterfront home will most likely fall between 2.5 and 3.8 million. Estate properties are higher.

Post-Pandemic Real Estate Landscape

The rush to leave urban for rural, following the pandemic closures in 2020, created higher prices and low inventory. 2021 was characterized by many “over ask” and unconditional offers. Despite pauses in 2022 and 2023, prices remained stable and inventory low.

Projections call for continuing price stability and low inventory as we look toward 2025 and beyond. As long as the housing shortage persists and immigration grows, the economic reality of low supply leading to high prices will continue. Government efforts to address the housing crisis have not worked so far.

Lifestyle and Ownership Opportunities


Although a Gulf Island purchase might have been recreational several years ago, it is now mainly a lifestyle choice, and people plan to live year-round where they buy. The Islands Trust form of governance (in place since 1974) also keeps inventory low. Growth has been controlled through severe zoning and bylaw restrictions.

It’s interesting that an increase in renovations since 2020 is another reason for price increases. Owners are increasing the value of their properties, whether they sell them or not.

So, here we are, at the very beginning of October. Many consider the early part of Fall one of the loveliest seasons on the great Pacific Northwest Coast. It’s a good time to visit, explore opportunities for a purchase, and discover the many elements that make up the unique Gulf Islands/Salt Spring Island lifestyle: agriculture, arts, alternative health options, respect for and enjoyment of the natural world.

Already here? Be a visitor in your own backyard. Wanting to be here? Let’s explore ownership possibilities. Consider a land purchase and investigate new manufactured home options (recent changes in construction techniques can benefit buyers). What about shared ownership? A lawyer can explain the various ways to benefit from shared ownership with family or friends. Is it for you?

Meantime, October welcomes the harvest bounty of this dynamic time of year. Enjoy!

Salt Spring Island, February 2024, Market Analysis

February in the Pacific Northwest Coast Real Estate Market

February often starts the early Spring market on the Pacific Northwest Coast. The trend for 2024 might not be evident till March Break, but February introduces the early activity.

Salt Spring Real Estate Market – Early February

What do we see in the Salt Spring real estate market at this very beginning of February? The song of thin inventory continues. This is a theme seen in competing Vancouver Island communities…lack of listings is not just a Gulf Island issue.

Why Owners Hesitate to Sell

There are many reasons for owners not wanting to be sellers. That flight from urban to rural, post-pandemic, continues. It may be about a desire for safety. Geopolitical concerns are part of location decisions. A desire to be apart from city problems is a strong driver to action…a seeking of a “kinder gentler” lifestyle makes sense. There is also that “back to the land” component, where one can be self-sufficient if supply chains falter. These elements may propel buyers, but they also stop owners from becoming sellers…they are already enjoying these elements. IF they thought of selling, they would discover they can’t find a replacement property elsewhere…no inventory…and so it goes.

Gulf Islands Governance and Real Estate

Under the Gulf Islands form of governance (Islands Trust, with a mandate to “preserve and protect” the environmental beauties of the Gulf Islands for the benefit of all B.C. residents), in place since 1974, a buyer purchase/investment is ensured to remain as purchased. In this era of extreme change, this continuation of what one fell in love with, and purchased, is a strong feature of decisions to invest on a Gulf Island.

Ganges

Market Dynamics and Future Trends

It’s also a recipe for price escalation. Will we see multiple owners as a buyer profile, going forward, so that one can enjoy ownership of a Gulf Island property? Hmmm….there are always work-arounds and creative ownership models may be one outcome to encourage the opportunity to own, as prices rise and inventory remains static.

A February 2024 Market Analysis On Salt Spring

So: the very beginning of February shows continuing low inventory, with buyer interest showing up in all price ranges and property types, and now with a sense that one needs to act. The pauses in action, seen in 2022 and 2023, appear to be over. Oddly, this increase in activity began in November 2023. The interest rate fluctuations remain a factor in buyer outcomes. Those having to renew mortgages in 2024 and 2025 will also be making decisions as to whether to hold or to sell. Lack of inventory to buy or to rent may decide people to struggle on with current ownership.

Real Estate as Capital Preservation

Many on both sides of the seller/buyer divide are seeing real estate as a way to preserve capital. Concern about erosion of purchasing power of currencies has people thinking about how to retain value in their holdings.

Anticipating Future Outcomes

Lots of outcomes still waiting to be formed…it’s very early in what promises to be a busy year. It’s a good idea to attend seminars and financial webinars…all information is helpful in times of change. And also keep an eye on AI…implants that allow one’s thoughts to effect change? Hmmm…. Mid-Feb welcomes the Year of the Wood Dragon in the Asian Lunar New Year. The western zodiac sees Pluto in Aquarius, a line-up not seen since the French Revolution. Recipes for change? Keep your editing function fired up.

Exploring the Local Area in February

So: February. Check the garden…early bulbs and shrubs are flowering forward. Give yourself the gift of new…zip off to Victoria or Sidney and look at a different set of walls. Remember the Cowichan Valley…on our doorstep and lots to see and do there. Beaches to explore at Parksville/Qualicum or all the way to Tofino. Check out our close neighbours, the other Southern Gulf Islands…each with their own signature. A day trip makes us glad to get back to Salt Spring’s many charms. Family Day holiday weekend in mid-February invites us to sample other nearby spaces. Lucky us…adventure on!

Salt Spring Island, January 2024, Market Analysis

January ponderings…

The Roman god Janus gave his name to this beginning month of the New Year.
With two faces, one looking behind and one facing forward, Janus reminds us that every beginning carries with it some of what went before…and also introduces the new.

If you are interested in the Asian horoscopes, then it’s good to know that February 10th ushers in the Year of the Wood Dragon.

Change is The Wallpaper of Our Time

It’s taken 23 years for the real 21st century to finally arrive.
Early forays into websites and emails morphed into social media communications. It really is now possible to pretty much do one’s life and business off a smart phone. 5G speeds it all up.

Zoom during the pandemic closures got us all used to image only meetings. What will happen to all those empty office buildings? If there is a housing shortage (and there is), then why are they not being turned into interesting housing developments?

And what about AI? Clunky ChatGPT is only the rudimentary beginning. So: reality. Virtual, augmented, real…and so forth and so on. It’s called artificial intelligence…the second word implies thought.

If someone gave us a ticket to 1996, would we take it? It seems like a time that is already in the far far past.

Meantime, since change is simply the wallpaper of our time, and we must flow forward on this river of shift, it’s essential to recapture our editing function. Data is not information. What is visible on the internet may not be authentic. Only our editing ability will help us sort it out.

Is Real Estate Strengthening?

Yes. The almost two year “pause” (soft sales, low inventory, nervous buyers) of 2022/2023 is over. Prices are higher. Most owners do not want to be sellers. Buyers want to act. The difficulty about low inventory: not enough choice for a buyer. If they don’t find what they are looking for, they won’t act. Yes, there are fewer sales, but that’s because there’s less to sell. What will happen when many mortgages will be up for renewal in 2024? Often, secondary home/recreational marketplaces can be somewhat insulated from this renewal scenario.

At this very beginning of January:

There are approximately 77 residential listings on Salt Spring, not separating out single family, townhomes, farms, waterfronts.

There are 31 land listings, not separating out waterfronts, acreages, lots.

That’s a total of 108 listings…a balanced market might see 280 listings.

At the end of 2023, there had been approximately 179 sales, ranging between $55,000 for a mobile in a park and $4,288,000 for a waterfront on five acres. Projections continue to call for consistent positive real estate outcomes, based on strong immigration and lack of housing options.

The various government measures to increase rental stock and buyer options (vacancy tax, prohibition on out of country buyers, increased purchase tax for non-residents) have not proved to create more housing opportunities. Artificial government edicts do not take the place of encouraging private enterprise to build/to develop. The lack of housing will continue for some time.

Geopolitical concerns continue. Worries about inflation, and currencies also continue. Remember Voltaire and his warning that paper money always reverts to its true value: zero. Is another reason for buyers seeking out special properties in unique areas simply a desire to preserve capital? Is this also why owners are not wanting to be sellers?

Many changes in the real estate industry itself. Stay tuned as the ways to buy and to sell real estate undergo significant changes…just as all segments of society must grapple with serious change. Nothing is exempt.

January of 2024

Lots to think about as we emerge into early January of this New Year. It is a New Year and we can choose whether to look backwards or to opt for Janus’ forward staring face.

Meantime, January…a month to savour that every day is eight seconds longer. We are on the slow march to Spring. Now there’s a thought!

Salt Spring Island, November 2023, Market Analysis

November, 2023.

Feathered with Golden Leaves

November signals mid-Fall…forested hills feathered with golden leaves from Maples and Alders…more rainy days, and bursts of sun between storm tracks. Daylight Saving Time ends, and this adds to darker late afternoons. Some call it the cosy season and that image of a slower pace welcomes this softer season to Salt Spring and the Gulf Islands.

The 2023 pattern of the real estate market remains in place: very low inventory, in all property types and price ranges, and general stability in sale prices. Lack of choice for buyers remains an issue.

The Gulf Islands & The Islands Trust

Governments at all levels (federal, provincial, municipal) are struggling with the lack of housing inventory. The Gulf Islands, unincorporated areas (except for Bowen), are under the Islands Trust form of governance (a provincial government body put in place in 1974, with a mandate of “to preserve and protect” the Gulf Islands for the benefit of all B.C. residents). Strict zoning/bylaws prohibit growth. Two elected trustees per Island do not have the power to change the Trust mandate…the provincial government would have to do that.

Inventory & Immigration

Lack of housing of all types is an issue in all communities and the Gulf Islands are not immune. Lack of supply keeps pricing higher. Most owners do not want to be sellers, as world events continue to cause major insecurities…a search for personal safety and for capital protection are two threads behind current buyer searches…that flight from urban to rural continues. Social unrest is evident. Strong immigration to Canada, coupled with lack of housing product, continues.

A Fall Market?

So…November. A holding pattern in local real estate, with low inventory and continuing buyer interest. For several years, the main buyer profile has been from Vancouver/Lower Mainland. Outcomes in Vancouver do trickle down to the Gulf Islands. A Fall Market has also been a characteristic of Gulf Islands sales, for many years.

November offers: ArtSpring theatre events, craft fair at WinterCraft, farmgate
stands, receptions at galleries, folk club headliners, live music venues, easy access to hiking/walking trails, still lots to do and to enjoy.

The softer season…yes. Enjoy.

Salt Spring Island, September 2023, Market Analysis

Earlier Sunsets on Salt Spring

A lovely month in the Gulf Islands and on Salt Spring Island…September retains Summer moments and slowly segues into true Fall. Shorter days, earlier sunsets, star-watching pleasures, and the delectable harvest time.

On Salt Spring? Catch the amazing Fall Fair (September 9/10)…the old island meets the current one and each day is totally different. Don’t miss this annual event. The Ganges Galleries are showcasing the output of their signature artists, ArtSpring events are offered, and ArtCraft will gently close for the season. Wine and cider tastings, Saturday and Tuesday Farmers Markets continue, and farmgate stands are showcasing their produce. Lucky SaltSpringers! Labour Day Holiday Weekend starts the month.

Fall Market Salt Spring Real Estate

And what about that Fall Market in real estate? Several years ago, Summer and Fall became a busy time in the Gulf Islands. It can be busier than the Spring market, and some call this time of year “the second Spring”.

Although the 2023 year began late (mid-April?), it was consistent. Inventory remained low. Entry-level price points and residential listings found most of the action in the Spring/early Summer timeline. Towards mid-August, some upper tier priced properties also found their buyers. It is usual to see higher end opportunities finding their buyers in September/October/November, year after year.

Low inventory is likely to continue. Unless they have to, most owners are not interested in being sellers. IF they were interested in selling, they can’t find listings in the areas they might consider moving to. No one wants to be houseless.

Lack of Construction + Invitation for Immigration

The Canadian government’s invitation for immigration (500,000 + a year) bumps into the past forty years of lack of construction. Strong desire to buy, coupled with lack of housing options, result in price escalation. A lack of affordable housing (whether to purchase or rent) remains a Canada-wide issue.

Why Invest on Salt Spring Island

Salt Spring and the Gulf Islands governance model is under the provincial government body known as the Islands Trust (created in 1974). The purpose was to preserve and protect the environmental beauties of the Gulf Islands for the benefit of all B.C. residents. In a sense, these islands are like park reserves. Growth is capped via strong zoning/bylaws restrictions. The Islands Trust restrictions also keep inventory low, regardless of market trends.

Concern over currency uncertainties may be another factor in low inventory…choosing hard assets is one way to preserve capital in uncertain times. Owning property on Salt Spring and the Gulf Islands can be viewed as an important decision in one’s investment portfolio.

Seeking a successful real estate outcome on Salt Spring and the Gulf Islands? It’s very important to me that things work to optimum for you, whether selling or buying. Questions? Call me. Your best outcomes truly are my motivation. Information is key.

Fall is the season of mellow fruitfulness…

Meantime…it’s early September and the season offers beauty everywhere. September 1st is meteorological Fall…in spite of the calendar saying it’s summer till the 20th. As the poet John Keats described, Fall is the season of mellow fruitfulness.

Time to hike the trails at Ruckle Park, the Mt Erskine trail system, the Channel Ridge trails. Time to dine out at our amazing restaurants and taste the delights of the harvest season. Time to meander the galleries and discover the meaning of talent. Time to star watch and ponder a bigger picture. Time to choose fresh veggies and fruits at farm markets and test drive your culinary skills. Time to welcome the cosy season.

Fall’s softer season is there to enjoy. Accept the invitation.