November… darker (end of Daylight Saving), post-harvest, thoughtful. Yes, it’s “fall back” time.

 

November 11th offers appreciation for those who served in wars past and those who serve today, to protect Canadians and their values, their lifestyles. Wear the poppy on Remembrance Day, in acknowledgement of sacrifices made.

Nature is wearing a more somber palette in November, as leaves drift from trees, and dark branches meet skylines. November speaks the tongue of grey…pewter seas, pearl clouds, charcoal forests, the metal hues of grey meshing with rain squalls that smear our vistas.

 

November…a time to light candles, investigate specialty soups, start to read a fat book, and remember to keep active.

Fall Market Trends

The real estate market? Oddly enough, the Fall Market can see a busier sales season. This has been the case in 2024, after an oddly quiet summer.

Often, buyers view properties earlier, and then they bring an offer later in the year. Sometimes, it’s about a hope that a seller will look favourably on an offer…the end of a year, the end of a season, and possibly a seller may just want to be out of the stress of selling. Sometimes that is the case.

 

Buyer Patterns and Market Dynamics

It can also be about the buyers rhythm…they know they want to leave urban for rural, but they have not decided on the “where”. Salt Spring and the Gulf Islands have competition from Vancouver Island communities, and buyers want to be sure of their decisions.

It takes time to visit areas and to make that choice of “where”. Until that is done, the “when” of a move is not in place.

Time lags are a factor in the rural secondary home markets. A buyer sees something interesting on the internet, then comes to view, then checks out other areas “to be sure” of initial impressions, then returns to seriously view available inventory in the acceptable price range, and then considers an outcome. This whole process can take several months.

Usually there are two and possibly three visits to an area. Fall is often when all the questions gel into answers and a buyer makes an offer.

 

There is no local market on the Gulf Islands and so visits are often widely spaced. It can take one to two years to sell a Gulf Island property. The outcome of this unknown offer timeline is that sellers respect buyers offers.

Since late 2020/2021, the inventory has been very low in most secondary home markets. Most owners do not want to be sellers. Sometimes, it’s because they can’t find a replacement property where they might move to. As something sells, little new comes on market to take its place.

The Gulf Islands are also under the Islands Trust form of governance, and that “preserve and protect” mandate (in place since 1974) controlled growth and maintained low inventory, beyond market forces. So, low inventory continues to be a factor at this very beginning of November.

In 2021, post-pandemic, there was a rush to seek safer, more self-sufficient areas (as in rural) to move to…”over ask” bidding wars became a feature. Inventory diminished. Prices rose. Generally, without further rises, prices have remained relatively stable since then. As the Bank of Canada has offered serious interest rate cuts in 2024, we may start to see some cautious buyers re-emerging. In 2022/23, buyers were reluctant to act. If seeking a move-in ready residential property below one million, then strata townhomes remain as the main option on Salt Spring…or else it’s undeveloped land and build.

The currency concerns (diminishing purchasing power of our Canadian Dollar) remain and buying real estate in unique areas is also seen as a preservation of capital decision. There have been some oceanfront sales in the two and three million range for residential this Fall, and this may reflect that investment buyer activity.

 

Mixed messages then, in 2024’s real estate market. Projections from “big box” companies are calling for an improving trend and busier sales, in 2025. It’s a difficult call to project into 2025, based on the haphazard 2024 patterns.

Interest rate cuts will have an effect, but it’s an unknown as to the degree of same. Are regular consumers still concerned about cost of living, of job security (what will be the real effect of AI?), of immigration pressures on housing, of continuing lack of housing? And so on…. Lots of questions and without serious answers the consumer may continue to rest on the sidelines.

Traditionally, though, lack of inventory and strong buyer desire do result in price escalation, and this trend remains in place at this very beginning of November.

 

Meantime, in spite of many concerns globally, and worries about election outcomes, the great Pacific Northwest Coast offers beauty at any season. November may sing the song of grey, but it also reminds us that it’s a month to allow us to step back into ourselves for a moment, to remember the fallow field opportunity (time to replenish our roots), and to enjoy the serenity of a quieter time. A little “mulling” never hurt anyone.

November: let’s pick a rainy day, meet a friend for lunch, watch the drizzle slide against windows, blurring the Harbour views… floatplanes chortling in and out, seal slithering past docks, boats straining at anchor, eagle hunched on a cedar branch, pondering…the amazing “wet coast” smiles hello.

It’s November. Enjoy!