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Salt Spring Island, August 2023, Market Analysis

August, 2023.

Salt Spring Island Attractions

Wow…Summer is at the half-way point. August has arrived.

Time to enjoy the fruits of the season…shop the Saturday and Tuesday Farmers Markets for home grown delights. Dine out al fresco on the patios and decks at our exceptional restaurants. Kayaking, paddle boarding, sailing through these beautiful Gulf Islands…whales, sea lions, seals sleekly move among us. Hiking trails, forest bathing choices, spa retreats, beaches for sunset viewings and swimming in lakes and ocean. How lucky we are to experience the real reality of this special part of the great Pacific Northwest Coast. Lucky Salt Springers!

Salt Spring Real Estate Market

And that always interesting real estate market in this secondary home/recreational region? The theme remains: low inventory and stable pricing.

This year is also seeing a return of buyers, in spite of the continuing worries about interest rate rises, supply chain issues, lack of good choices, inflationary pressures, currency concerns, wars and rumours of wars…the surround sound of our current moment seems to be worry-worry. In 2022, it paused activity. In 2023, although there was a late start to the year’s cycle, action is again with us.


The rhythm is not the over ask frenzy of 2021. There are subject offers now, there is time for a buyer to do due diligence, and sellers listen to buyer thoughts on offer prices.

The thing for a seller to remember: a buyer chooses to come to Salt Spring. No one “has to” buy on a Gulf Island. It’s always a two-step dance: a buyer chooses the Gulf Island to live on and then chooses the property on that island. Very different from a primary residence/city marketplace.

There is always a time element to a purchase…often takes three visits before an offer is made. There can be months between visits. Patience is a part of all property purchases on all Gulf Islands.

Push for Immigration

The federal government push for immigration (500,000 a year from 2023 to 2025) is occurring at same time as a lack of housing…right across Canada…and on the Gulf Islands/Salt Spring Island, too. Lack of rentals, work rentals, and affordable housing persist. This lack of inventory is projected to bring serious price escalation.

So, a desire for hard asset investment to preserve capital in inflationary times…and increased immigration with low housing inventory…these seem to promise a strong real estate market.

I always think it takes till mid-September to see the real tone of a real estate market on any Gulf Island. We are almost there… Several years ago our recreational/secondary home region became a late summer/fall sales market…stay tuned.

Something to pay attention to during these last lazy days of summer, as August unrolls…the impact of AI (those in the know say it is going to create profound change, more than was experienced with the arrival of the internet). Maybe leave the fat entertainment book in the hammock and look into this game-changer?

Meantime, it’s still summer-summer in our real reality location and August brings earlier sunsets, star watching opportunities, lush gardens, a sense of needing to quickly capture this amazing time of year…September and Fall are on the horizon…don’t delay. The bird is on the wing.

A little sail out the Harbour? Meet you at the dock. It’s Summer. Catch it.

Salt Spring Island, June 2023, Market Analysis

June, 2023.

The Low Tides of Summer

It’s June…the month when the calendar says “Summer”, when schools are out for summer vacation, when the days are longest and beaches beckon (yes, those are low tides).

Summer has the word “ease” at the heart of it. Kayak to Chocolate Island, sail through these amazing Gulf Islands (some of the best protected boating waters in the world), enjoy beachcombing, swim in the lakes, hike the trails, picnic wherever your fancy takes you, enjoy al fresco dining with a view at the super restaurants around the island.

A highlight of June? The annual Tour des Iles weekend (voyage between the five Southern Gulf Islands…live music and new discoveries. A WOW). Check the Visitors Centre for dates and details.

The Salt Spring Real Estate Market

So, what about the real estate market at this very beginning of June? The story of low inventory coupled with consistent buyer desire for rural/recreational areas (yes, still the flight from urban to rural) continue to be in place.

The immigration push (federally, the government is encouraging 500,000 immigrants a year, for 2023, 2024, 2025), at the same time as lack of housing (to buy or to rent) remains an issue everywhere, seem to predict rising prices. Lack of supply is always the reason for price increases. It remains, quite simply, a sellers market.

This is not yet the crazy market seen in 2021. So far, we are not noting many multiple offers all at once, with “over ask” outcomes.

Sellers do get close to list, in many cases. In others, price reductions happen first and then often a further reduction at the point of a sale. These differences merely point to the pace of recovery after “the great pause” of 2022. It may take until late August/September to really see the tone of 2023, for real estate patterns.

There are many lingering concerns: interest rate further rises, inflationary pressures, lack of good choices for a buyer, supply chain issues, rising cost of materials (one reason why some buyers ignore undeveloped land listings), geopolitical worries, currency concerns. Worries do create slower outcomes…the persistent refrain: “are we safe yet?”.

Since 2016, most buyers have been from Vancouver in the Gulf Islands, and in other rural venues. These buyers plan to live where they purchase, and so take time in considering “where” to relocate. It always takes time to sell property on any Gulf Island, no matter the market trend.

Close to Everything and Yet Wonderfully Apart…

So, we segue into June with fewer listings and renewed desire to own property on a Gulf Island…close to everything and yet wonderfully apart. Remember, too, our form of governance (the Islands Trust) and its preservation mandate. The Trust also keeps growth low. Between the Trust and the lack of interest from most owners in becoming sellers, and the pressure for housing, one might agree that price points will rise in real estate.

Look forward to helping you with your real estate needs (whether selling or buying) on Salt Spring and the Southern Gulf Islands. Your best interests are my motivation.

E-Mail: LiRead33@Gmail.com

Meantime, June is here…and whether a resident or a visitor, Salt Spring and the Southern Gulf Islands smile a Summer hello. Enjoy!

Salt Spring Island, March 2023, Market Analysis

March, 2023.

Meteorological Spring

March 1st is meteorological Spring…the calendar says it’s March 20th. This 2022/2023 winter La Niña weather pattern on Salt Spring and the Gulf Islands brought several snow and wind storms, (not our usual “cool Mediterranean” winter pattern). Now the very beginning of March says hello and smiles its daffodil promise. I’m in.

A pause is not a correction

What about that mixed message real estate pattern? In Fall 2022, there was a significant pause in activity/outcomes, although low inventory remained the theme. Buyers appeared to be digesting fearful issues such as increases in interest rates and impacts of inflationary pressures. A pause is not a correction.

In early 2023, activity began again. The same uncertainties remained: impacts of interest rate rises and inflationary pressures, worry about geopolitical issues (distant wars, supply chain inadequacies, concerns about lingering pandemic outbreaks and possible new ones, currency worries, among others)…it seemed, however, that people just wanted to get on with their lives, and so action ramped up.

The main driver to action continues to be that flight from urban to rural. The main buyer profile in the rural areas continues to be from Vancouver/Lower Mainland.

Lack of Housing Remains

The lack of housing is a huge problem across Canada, and also impacts the entire province. Federally, the government is seeking to attract 500,000 immigrants a year, starting this year. Lack of housing to buy or to rent will continue to keep prices stable in all regions…and possibly lead to renewed price increases, especially in desired areas.

On Salt Spring, at this very beginning of March, there are very few single family homes listed for sale, and those residential offerings under one million tend to be strata properties (mainly townhomes) or small recreational cottages or serious fixer-uppers. Even properties over a million may need renovations…there are very few step-in ready opportunities available at this moment.

Self Reliance vs Assistance

Interest in farm-style options continues…a desire to be self-sufficient (yes, that’s our friend the “back to the land” movement again). Boaters do ask about waterfronts with a dock…and these are quite rare now. Rare does imply stronger pricing.

There may be some listings opening up from aging retirees, who might like to return to city options, to be close to specific health requirements or to family, but they can’t move unless they can find something where they would like to move to…lack of inventory is an issue everywhere. These aging boomers do not want to be houseless, and so that lack of housing product everywhere does stop listing outcomes on the Gulf Islands.

We live in an era of profound change and part of that is to do with impacts of artificial intelligence on our everyday lives. Another: the moving off of the boomer voice and the impact of the millennial shift. It’s important to think about that when listing a home built in the 1990s, say. A lot of that era is on the Gulf Islands. Who is the buyer? What is a millennial seeking? How might one create that in a boomer-built house?

In spite of so many shifts and concerns, it’s important to remember the important things: family, friends, volunteering, keeping an eye on the future (no need to fear it…it’s just the evolution of what we always do…live our lives), and to work for best outcomes for our communities.

Looking to move to Salt Spring or a Gulf Island? Thinking of selling your piece of paradise? Call me. Successfully connecting buyers with sellers since 1989, I look forward to bringing my expertise, knowledge, and experience to your benefit. (liread33@gmail.com).

So…March. Time to pick up a picnic lunch and renew your experience of Ruckle Park trails and ocean vistas. Time to meet with friends for lunch or dinner with a view (Moby’s, Seaside, Auntie Pesto’s, Rock Salt, Hastings House). Time to seriously Spring Clean (it’s the windows…sparkle them up). Time to get ready for all the upcoming openings (Saturday Market, galleries showcasing new artists works, splashes of colour in gardens, the delectable coves and beaches to visit and to inspire summer plans).

March is the beginning of our Gulf Islands season. The earth flowers forward. Be there. Notice. Be inspired. Welcome.

Salt Spring Island, February 2023, Market Analysis

February…and the slow slide into Spring begins.

It’s a short month, with a romantic allure on Valentine’s Day (Feb 14th), and a weekend holiday on B.C. Family Day (Feb 20th) Weekend.

Yes, a mix of winter and early spring, with that freshening sense of new beginnings (always the welcome message of real Spring).

Early Real Estate Patterns Emerging

What about the real estate patterns that are also beginning to emerge? It often takes until mid-March to get the tone of a market in a secondary home marketplace, such as the Gulf Islands. The buyer profile on the Gulf Islands is not local…buyers arrive from elsewhere…and for the last several years (perhaps fully since 2015?), the main buyer has been from Vancouver/Lower Mainland.

After the first pandemic closures in early 2020, real estate activity began…the flight from urban to rural was the main driver to action. The ability of the internet to authentically allow the option to work from home, no matter that location, also was in place by 2020…allowing that rural shift to successfully take place.

In 2021, the inventory thinned out dramatically in all rural areas and in some cases there were bidding wars (more buyers than sellers). The low inventory continued throughout 2022, but buyers were pausing…inquiries came in, viewings would take place, but activity from buyers had slowed. Uncertainty was the culprit.

In the latter part of 2022, worries about the impact of distant wars, supply chain issues, concerns about lingering pandemic and health outcomes, fears about rising interest rates, currency concerns, reports of a global recession…all of these uncertainties had buyers simply treading water…are we safe? That seemed to be the major question. A pause is not necessarily a correction.

Lack of supply is what keeps prices stable and potentially tracking higher. The federal government is seeking immigration of 500,000 each year for the next two years. At the same time, they are putting a two year ban on foreign ownership. (There are many exemptions and one of them is that the ban will not apply to recreational areas (such as the Gulf Islands). Check the federal government website for further details).

Less Supply, More Demand…

CMHC (Canadian Mortgage and Housing) forecast last year that unless 22 million housing units were built by 2030, there would be no alleviation of the lack of supply in Canada. So: few housing units and increased immigration…sounds like a recipe for price increases, in foreseeable future. Hmmm…..

It is interesting, when looking back to previous serious recessionary times, that real estate usually softens a year before other indicators point to such outcomes. If so, that would put 2022 as the softened year in real estate. From early March to early December, 2022, the hesitation in buyer activity did see some dramatic price reductions, to try to jumpstart sales action. In most cases, these reductions did not result in either more viewings or in sales. When a buyer is treading water, it means a period of inaction. Real estate also often recovers sooner than other lagging sectors.

Unusual Active January

In early 2023 (January, often a quiet month), it became active again (working around bursts of winter weather, of course). Sales of some properties that had been listed over a year, and with reductions that had been ignored, suddenly took place. As we enter the very beginning of February, inventory remains extraordinarily low.

Owners do not want to be sellers, it appears, unless they have to. To own a property in a unique area, where the Islands Trust form of governance effectively capped growth (in 1974), may be seen as a stalwart investment…a hedge against inflation and currency pressures. Buyer choice remains limited. By April, media reporting may be highlighting this renewed buyer activity and the lack of listings. More information? Contact me (liread33@gmail.com).

A Time of New Possibilities

We are all prisoners of our time…this current time period is full of unknowns and uncertainties and this does create hesitations. It may also be a time of new possibilities. Ever more important to sharpen up our editing skills. We are all swimming in a sea of raw data…making sense of it is a task indeed.

February is a good month to read, listen to webinars and podcasts, attend investment seminars, to glean bits of wisdom to guide us, to take the information in and then to see what makes sense individually. Also important to keep up to date on AI discoveries…things like ChatGPT could be serious game changers for our era. We are now all, in a way, our own experts. Important to trust our own inner editor.

Meantime, it’s inspiring February. Early flowering shrubs, snow drops and crocus bulbs are up, early daffodils in protected areas are smiling hello. Remember to get out and about in the natural world. In our digital universe it is ever more important to really “see” our companion natural environment. Walking meditation is a lovely entry to such appreciation.

February…an invitation to softer days, lighter days, and all that an early Spring promises. Enjoy!

February…and the slow slide into Spring begins.

It’s a short month, with a romantic allure on Valentine’s Day (Feb 14th), and a weekend holiday on B.C. Family Day (Feb 20th) Weekend.

Salt Spring Island, January 2023, Market Analysis

Salt Spring Island

Resolutions

January…it starts with resolutions.

There’s something about that blank palette at this very beginning of the month, in this introduction to a new year. We want to shape ourselves up.

A new year invites change. Change offers inspiration and also brings uncertainty. A mixed bag. The beginning of January is also full of forecasts for the new year…investment suggestions are at the forefront. The key question: how to be safe?

And what about specific real estate forecasts?

For Salt Spring and the Southern Gulf Islands, it always seems that the last two months of the preceding year are similar to the first two months of the new year.

Rise of Interest Rates

Looking at late Fall, 2022, then, we noted that the listing inventory continued to be very low. Properties below a million tended to be strata options or small homes/cottages (most needing renovation or rebuild work). There were quite a few residential listings between one and two million. Sales were mainly below the million mark. A very few sales took place between 2 and 3 million. That “middle” person price category of one plus million seemed to have softened by late 2022. Was this a result of rising interest rates?
Salt Spring Island

Arriving at the beginning of the new year, we note continuing low inventory. Prices have seen downward pressure since late Fall, and this may continue in early 2023. Price reductions do not always trigger viewings or offers. If a buyer is reluctant to act, they will tread water, seeking some market clarity. Most buyers continue to be from Vancouver and the desire to drop urban and seek rural remains a propeller of action.

It’s a good idea to attend investment seminars, whether in person or by webinars/podcasts. No one really has a definitive blueprint in this time of shift, but it’s good to let information pass through us…something that speaks to us will jump out. Be listening.

I found it interesting that some major National real estate brands were surprised that very little inventory came onstream in late 2022. They had thought the interest rate rises would have led to a spill-out of listings. However, if they can, it appears that most owners are choosing not to be sellers.

Some Certainties Lie Ahead

The Canadian government is seeking 1.5 million immigrants by 2025 (that’s 500,000 new arrivals each year, starting in 2023). At the same time, the federal government is banning foreign purchases for two years…starting January 1. Mixed messaging?
Salt Spring Island

As long as supply is low, it seems to promise price stability in real estate markets. CMHC (Canadian Mortgage & Housing) noted in 2022 that 22 million dwellings would need to be in place in Canada by 2030, or the lack of housing problem would not be addressed. Hmmm….. Add in that real estate keeps pace with inflation, and may protect from currency issues, and it seems that stability in real estate, especially in unique and beautiful places, may continue.

Until March, Predictions can be in vain

The very beginning of January is too early to make any significant projections about local real estate markets. Impacts of government taxation measures, interest rate rises, lack of supply, concerns about impending recession, continuing inflationary pressures, questions about currencies…one cannot ignore these global concerns. Locally, it always takes until March Break in the Gulf Islands to see the possible tone of this new calendar year. Continuing low inventory will be key.

Meantime: it’s the beginning of January. Time to enjoy the softer season on the Gulf Islands. There are always things to see and do…and every day is that little bit lighter and longer. Meteorological Spring begins on March 1st…a hop, skip, and a jump from January 1st.

Salt Spring

So, time to hike and walk the trail systems, to do some early spring cleaning, to sort files and spiff up the office, to keep up on projections, to meander the art galleries (to inspire one’s soul), to do lunch at our great restaurants and ponder the views (important to support local), to take 5 as the great Brubeck played…and to simply be. A fallow field moment is always restorative. A time out.

It’s January. Enjoy!

Salt Spring Island, December 2022, Market Analysis

The first of December is considered meteorological Winter, although the calendar says it begins on the 20th. The great Pacific Northwest Coast experiences shorter days (dark by 4:30 p.m.) and every year is slightly different, weather-wise. This year promises snow and arctic cold. I prefer the usual rain that has our west coast location often described as “the famously wet coast”. (I am allergic to snow at sea level).

Salt Spring Island

Things To Do on Salt Spring Island This Winter

Lots of art gallery openings and receptions in December, plus the annual WinterCraft at Mahon Hall until the 23rd, the annual Beaver Point and Fulford Hall craft fairs (December 2 to 4), and other loved pop-ups…closed for two seasons due to covid closures, these displays of artistic flair are welcomed. ArtSpring offers choral/seasonal concerts…check out the website for dates. Enjoy the lights in the Village, and the decorated shops. Tasty special menus at coffee stops and restaurants…decorated farm gate stands encourage a jaunt around the island. Live music venues (Moby’s, the Legion) are fun. Check out the Christmas on Salt Spring events (the Chamber of Commerce website or Visitors Centre). Does Santa really arrive by floatplane?

Close to major centres and yet wonderfully apart…a visit to a Gulf Island/to Salt Spring Island can be a restorative and peaceful experience at this softer Winter season.

Real estate at this end of the year

Real estate at this end of the year time is still consistently chugging along. Buyers remain interested and active. Snow storms mean some delays for some viewings, but Winter does not last long in our region. Inquiries remain strong. Winter is often a weekend business in a secondary home market. The lack of inventory remains a factor. The desire for a buyer to leave the city and to live in the country is still the main reason for activity. That authentic internet connectivity allows this profound lifestyle change. A softer gentler lifestyle seems to be the goal. A very human need: to be safe.

Housing Supply & Purchase Taxation

The governments (provincial and federal) are attempting to solve the lack of affordable housing supply through taxation (offshore purchase taxation, empty home (speculation) tax, moratorium on non-Canadian buyers, interest rate rises), and yet the federal government is also looking for 1.5 million immigrants by 2025. CMHC has forecast that 22 million housing units would need to be in place by 2030, to solve this “lack of housing” crisis (not including immigration pressures).

First time buyers are affected by the series of interest rate rises. Some experts are forecasting more rate rises to come…others think not (possibly fearing societal unrest?).

Affordability is tied to supply…instead of taxing existing options, which does not grow supply, governments need to encourage construction…an entrepreneurial answer to supply and demand issues.

Real Estate – Still A solid hard asset investment

Meantime, real estate remains a solid hard asset investment (especially during currency fluctuations) and keeps pace with inflation.

December is a time to be thoughtful, a time to acknowledge traditions and to practice the art of gratitude. A time to create new traditions and to include those on their own in our celebrations. It’s fun to research other seasonal events and definitely important to have lots of candles, have a fire in the hearth, and to invite light into our homes. Maybe a year to reread Charles Dickens’ classic: A Christmas Carol?

Feasting is allowed. A pause is encouraged.

December…a time of joy. Good to partake.