Tag Archives: market

January 2016, Market Analysis

January 2016, Market Analysis – Salt Spring Island

Salt Spring Island

Salt Spring Island


A New Year…a new adventure.

2016 may turn out to be the authentic first post-meltdown year, for discretionary real estate sales.

Salt Spring Sales – Between 2008 & 2014

In the secondary home markets, between end of 2008 and end of 2014, there was scant activity. Although most sales in 2015 occurred under the label “entry level residential”, such sales volume may have doubled and listing inventory dramatically thinned. This is a marker of an authentic recovery. In the end, all property types/price points find their buyer.

Hard Asset Investing

It’s called hard asset investing, and is perhaps the antidote to years of quantitative easing. When currency uncertainties are a factor, ownership of a good real estate option is a solid route to safe haven investing.

This is an excellent opportunity for many to consider amplifying their property portfolio: to consider a recreational purchase as a means to grow their asset base. Undeveloped land opportunities may be the “best buy” venue.

Interest rates still remain at almost historic lows. Sellers might agree to hold a mortgage in order to facilitate a sale. Prices reduced over the past eight year downturn; recreational options are affordable. Vacation rentals can help to offset costs. And, there is the enjoyment aspect in this “always on” post-Internet world. A ferry to a retreat…hmmm…a recipe for a pleasing lifestyle?

BC Ferries

BC Ferries

A Time For Action

A cottage. A garden. A kayak at a dock. A deck to invite one to ponder a view. A beach to stroll. A mountain trail to hike. A decompression chamber? Plus an appreciation component that makes the enjoyment also a good investment.

Timing is all. January reminds us of the message of the double faced Roman god who left his name on this beginning month: one face looked back to past days, and one viewed forward. A quick glance back shows a market finally in recovery. A glimpse forward sees a moment in time that invites participation.

A new year, a new adventure…will you answer the call? Time for that recreational purchase? Time to turn that daydream into reality? Time for action.

November 2015, Market Analysis

November 2015

Fulford Harbour, Salt Spring Island

Fulford Harbour, Salt Spring Island


We are now sliding into the Fall-into-Winter moment.

There is often a perception that Salt Spring, the Gulf Islands, and Vancouver Island are seasonal markets…busier in late Spring and Summer…with less happening in the supposed “off season”. Not so.

It’s important to be presented to the marketplace at all times, in this post-Internet era. The Google search eye never sleeps. Someone, somewhere is searching.

In our secondary home/discretionary region, on this thin strip of the beautiful Pacific Northwest Coast, potential buyers now turn up, physically, between mid-summer and late fall…to view what had caught their attention earlier, on the net.

Many sales thus take place between August and end of the year. This catches many sellers off guard, if they have only a Spring/Summer mindset for a possible sale.

At this point, in a still busy sales time, we can point to continuing signs of an authentic market shift…in a strong upward direction:

  • Thinning inventory.
  • Rising price levels in the entry level residential priced category.
  • Sales of undeveloped land.
  • Stronger interest in higher end residential options…with more sales in this segment.
  • Buyer desire to buy a retirement or recreational or investment property.
  • Concerns over currencies making hard asset investments of interest.
  • Media reporting on all the above.

No matter the market trend in play at any time, there is always opportunity in a property purchase. Over time, a real estate investment is an important one. It is a wealth builder and a wealth preserver, although it is a “long tail” investment decision.

If you are considering a purchase of a Salt Spring Island, other Gulf Island, or Vancouver Island property, call me. My strong referral network will connect you to the best agents if your wish list lies in an area outside my circle of expertise. Benefit from my knowledge, of both inventory & of trends…let me help you to discover the right property for you.

The transition period between a buyers and a sellers market is rapidly closing, in our Gulf Islands area.

In the entry level priced residential properties (below $550,000, say?), we are already seeing sellers conditions. In undeveloped land sales, it’s still early days. Waterfront & superlative ocean view acreages always see earliest activity, in upper tier residential (over $900,000), and this pattern has just started (since August?)…waterfronts and equestrian friendly acreages are currently most in demand. The spread between list and sale price points is rapidly narrowing in all property types.

These are the key factors pointing to the close of the transition period: narrowing price spread, thinning inventory, sales volume increase.

Our coastal secondary home regions only began to see “soft” recovery in late 2014. Now, although still not even-handed, and many properties still not seeing “fast sales”, we are almost through the transition period…many people, locally, liken both our current real estate and our small business recovery to 2006/2007 patterns. Pre-economic collapse of 2008, then. All good news!

How may I help you to buy your special Salt Spring Island, Gulf Island, or Vancouver Island property? Call me! Look forward to working with you.

February 2015, Market Analysis

February 2015, Market Analysis – Salt Spring Island

Salt Spring Island

Salt Spring Island

The reminder from that savvy Ancient Greek, Heraclitus, that we never step in the same river water twice, is a thought to hold onto. As he noted, the only constant in life is change.

3-D printer, robotics revolution, driverless car…the word is out: humans need not apply. So, if the age of jobs is over, what next?

Is the age of travel also over? Violence is found in all places. Going out to buy bread or meet a friend for coffee can result in death by violence…a politically motivated person can take events into their own hands & too bad for you, in the corner of the cafe, minding your own business, with totally distant thoughts.

What did John Donne alert us to? Never send to ask for whom the bell tolls, for it tolls for thee? That, yes, & also the reminder that any man’s death diminishes us all.

So, as usual, the poets instruct us.

Cavafey, a recent Greek poet, reminded us that there’s no point in waiting for the barbarians to arrive…they are already here…they are us. Isn’t that the news that Pogo brought back from the swamp? I have seen the enemy & he is us?

Hmmm….

Meantime, Voltaire suggested that we might want to just stay home & cultivate our own garden.

It’s difficult to offer specific outcomes in local real estate markets, when societal shifts of such a deep nature are in full swing. These societal shifts are shaping economic outcomes. Global rhythms shape specific regions…it’s called the global economy for a reason. No area is remote. The connectivity of the post-Internet world means the butterfly effect is in play.

A study of history, both far & immediate pasts, might be of some help when attempting an interpretive role.

When the Industrial Revolution exploded onto the centuries old agrarian lifestyle, it was a knife through an established & thus well understood pattern.

Today, technological innovation is slashing through the vestiges of the latter years of the 20th Century.

If you stand on the technology side of this shift, there is endless opportunity. If in the recent past…well…just read a George Eliot or Charles Dickens novel for some gloomier outcomes.

farmhouse

farmhouse

Big picture events colour our tiny lives. Within that frame, what does a move to Salt Spring Island, to a Gulf Island, to a Vancouver Island community offer?

Following Voltaire’s advice, a move to such rural coastal opportunities means experiencing community, means the ability to be self-sufficient, means the luxury of being slightly “apart”, without being isolated. These are safe haven venues. It is possible to be self-sustaining. More information? Call me!

Recent Salt Spring & Gulf Island sales appear to be predicting a shift from a buyers to a sellers market, in the secondary home markets. It is a slow but steady rhythm.

The tax assessments still reflect the past 7 year downturn. It may take until 2016 for the tax assessments to reflect recent sales volume uptick. Prices have not yet stabilized.

Thinning inventory will continue to highlight price stability…& possibly increases. The tail end of a transition period between market trends reflects both past & future, in the short-term.

Oceanfronts, oceanviews, acreages, building lots, residential, commercial, investment, recreational…varying types of properties, varying prices…your special property dream is out there, waiting for you.

I often find that the first two months of a new year follow the patterns of last two months of the previous year. Most sales have remained in that entry level residential segment. The spread between list & sale prices has been narrowing in this property segment…lower inventory encourages strengthening prices. Some recent sales in undeveloped land may also predict an uptick in a market. Sales growth in the upper tier priced residential market appears to be underway…price reductions at point of these sales remain dramatic.

The sudden collapse in commodities markets may have serious outcomes for the secondary home marketplaces. An Alberta buyer has been a traditional coastal purchaser.

It takes until mid-March to see the first aspects of a new year market take shape. March Break is the traditional beginning to the “season” on Salt Spring & the Gulf Islands.

I usually write my market thoughts at the beginning of a month. Between early January’s “report” & now, we saw events in France plus a continuing crash in the commodities markets…societal & economic shifts together can deliver a “pause” to a discretionary marketplace.

It’s important to act prudently. Should one make a lifestyle move to a softer/gentler place, & live more simply, & slightly “apart”? Hmmm…. Decisions, decisions. In change lies opportunity.

How may I help you to buy your special property on Salt Spring Island or on another Gulf Island or on Vancouver Island? Please contact me…your best interests are always my motivation.

Looking for information about specific areas? Information about properties and opportunities? Call me! Benefit from my knowledge (of inventory & market trends) and from my expertise (experience counts!).

January 2015, Market Analysis

January 2014, Salt Spring Island Real Estate

Welcome to these early days of the first month of a brand new year.

Ganges Harbour, Salt Spring Island
Named after Janus, the Roman god who looked behind & ahead, at the same time, January straddles what has been & what will be, in real estate outcomes.

Many indicators are out there that are predicting a strong transition from a down to an up market, in the secondary home marketplaces, & globally so.

Salt Spring Island, the Gulf Islands, & Vancouver Island are often the tail of the dog in a market recovery. A recovery is never even-handed. Some places & some property types recover faster than others. The good news: if every story has a beginning & a middle & an end, then here, on the coastal “rim”, we are at the close of the transition “middle ground” between market trends.

The beginning of the recovery might be seen as having become visible by October 2013. It began with sales volume increase in the entry level residential category. Prices did not stabilize.

By October 2014, all property types were finding interested buyers (undeveloped land, higher end residential offerings, thinning inventory in entry level residential options, which helped to solidify prices, & even commercial sales began to occur).

No market ever stays up or down

No market ever stays up or down. Since late 2013, then, our slow coastal region’s recovery, in discretionary areas, had begun.
Ganges Harbour
I often think that secondary home sales mirror the fine art world’s sales pattern…perhaps within six months. The late Fall 2014 art action at the auction houses would seem to point towards an active secondary home sales rhythm to be in place by April/May of 2015.

Perhaps safe haven investing is the biggest motivator to sales in a discretionary/recreational marketplace, right now. If there is a concern about currencies, then a hard asset purchase might be an outcome of such a worry. It’s about preservation of capital. The plus of self-sufficiency might be an alluring factor for choosing Salt Spring & a Gulf Island as the destination. Our lower Canadian dollar against the U.S. dollar is also often an attractor to a buyer, for our area.

Hmmm….

January is a good time to attend investment conferences…listen well. Soak in the prevailing thought. Read investment articles…catch the vibe. Being informed is always the best first step in decision making.

It’s also important to act. The buyers market conditions are dissipating in the secondary home regions. Between now & April, we may see the “deals” evaporating. It has been a long seven year downturn in “by choice” markets. Indecision meant buyer inaction. That is over. Short-term, the upper tier priced residential opportunities may still see some price spreads between list & sale. The entry level market has seen price solidity develop.

If you have long dreamed of owning & enjoying a Salt Spring & Gulf Islands property, now is your moment to buy. The market is shifting upwards…which results in less inventory & higher prices. That’s the description of a sellers market.

October 2014, Market Analysis

_DSC4340

October really is the segue from mellow Fall to stark Winter.

Early October pretends it’s still September…late October says, no-no…leaves flying, November’s almost here…it’s the Pacific Northwest Coast season of grey. (I think that means our form of Winter).

This thin strip of coastal beauty does offer a northern California “off season” weather pattern…& even more so on the amazing Southern Gulf Islands.

Salt Spring enjoys a “cool Mediterranean” climate, one that encourages orchards, berry production, vineyards, olive groves…& yet…Winter is Winter in any latitude that offers four seasons.

What about real estate sales in this soft “off season”?

What about real estate sales in this soft “off season”? The odd thing is that it can be busier in late-Summer-into-Fall than in the Spring/Summer season.

This change in physical arrivals on island, to view & to make decisions about buying, shifted into a last half of the year sales moment some substantial time ago.

It’s important to be consistently listed year round, if selling, so that a buyer can discover the property & then make plans to visit, & to view. The Internet search eye never sleeps & it’s important to be displayed to it, no matter the time it takes for a buyer response. The buyer profile for Salt Spring & the Gulf Islands is not “local”. Time is a component of the discovery-&-then-action cycle.

Very probable, though, that the arrival time to view will be in late Summer/Fall. Odd, when Spring can be such a beautiful time on this great Pacific Northwest Coast, but it is what it is.

So. The sales pattern to date: a repeat of late 2013. The bulk of sales remain in entry level residential, 3 bed/2 bath family homes, close to Ganges…good rental opportunities. This seems to point to a continuing investor-buyer purchaser, & not necessarily an end-user.

At the same time, undeveloped land sales, commercial/business interests, & upper tier priced residential opportunities remain flat segments. Random one-off sales infrequently take place, in these less active categories, but no clear pattern is yet in evidence. Also, in these random sales, a large reduction still takes place at the point of any offer, even when there have been previous reductions to that point.

Where are the best deals?

It may be, from a buyer perspective, that the best deals will now occur in the higher priced residential options or in the undeveloped land choices, in a secondary home marketplace.

Very slowly, there are whispers of interest in commercial opportunities, & from offshore investors. It may be that the strict zoning controls of the Islands Trust (in place since 1974) have an attraction…unique zonings, that can’t be repeated, have a value.

As inventory clears out, in that entry level residential category, it implies price strengthening. This may be the authentic transition moment between the end of a downturn & the beginning of an uptick. Rumours of mortgage rate increases, from recent historic lows, may also be a signal of an uptick momentum in a market.

The rhythm of the uptick is not a racing forward pattern…yet. It’s still a slow chug-chug momentum, but it’s steadily going forth. This consistency, even though most sales still remain in that entry-level category, is a very positive sign.

Not everything is market related… Other considerations…

It’s important to remember to appreciate the illuminating and naturally beautiful Islands we inhabit. Slightly “apart”, and yet close to major centres…with all services/amenities close at hand…with an interesting & caring community…with the thoughtfulness that an artists community encourages…with a self-sustaining lifestyle to preserve and protect…certainly, Salt Spring Island & the Gulf Islands are alluring locations to enjoy as a visitor or to call “home”, no matter the market trend in play.

Markets are a wave pattern. The downturn may have started in secondary home markets as early as 2006, though not have been totally evident till late 2008. The uptrend may be underway, now. Waves are not static, & markets are always in a flow of shift.

There are beginnings/middles/ends to all market cycles. Recovery also has a beginning, but it’s rarely even-handed. The Pacific Northwest Coast always seems to be the “tail of the dog”…last to see change. The secondary home/discretionary/recreational regions have been slow to recover, all over the Coast. Patience on the part of sellers is still an essential.

Buoyancy in that entry level residential segment, in these “by choice” regions, is a very good sign, & is the traditional start of an authentic market recovery. We may see more sales in the upper tier residential segment between now and early January.

August, July 2014, Market Analysis

The main real estate sales window on the Pacific Northwest Coast seems to have evolved into a Summer/Fall market.

This may be the case on Vancouver Island, on the Sunshine Coast, as well as on the Gulf Islands.

Secondary home/discretionary markets have a different pattern from primary residence/city markets. “By choice” regions have been slow to recover from this past six year downturn.

At this very beginning of July, the uptick does appear to be underway, although it’s not an even-handed recovery & most sales to date still remain in the entry-level residential category.

It’s essential for a seller (& their realtor) to showcase listings throughout the year, in order to attract that mainly non-local buyer profile…but the physicality timeline for this non-local potential buyer to visit an area/view properties will mainly occur in July/August/September/October….perhaps into early November, depending on Fall weather pattern.

Along with this later arrival time, to view property opportunities, we are also seeing more “interviewing of areas” first.

With the “boomer” retirement wave just starting, & a strong desire from many Canadians from other provinces to choose a coastal retirement location, it makes sense that they might vacation here a good year or two before actually moving to a specific location.

Thus, Salt Spring & the Gulf Islands & Vancouver Island are in competition with each other…the potential purchaser has to “buy” the specific locale, first, before seriously looking at a property to purchase. Why here? Why not there? Serious questions!

The Internet search engines do allow a global discovery/audience. All that potential choice of destination, though, can make decision-making slower…if one can go anywhere for a retirement or a recreational choice, then that very broad choice parameter might lead to hesitation in decision…one wants “to be sure”.

Hmmm….

Regardless of market trend, it can take one to three years to sell a specific property in any particular secondary home area. Time is always a component in the choice dance. Buyers set markets, not sellers or realtors. It’s only very recently that buyers are once again looking at the secondary home/recreational marketplaces.

The good news? Slowly slowly that secondary home/recreational marketplace is on the uptick, after that 6 year downturn. While mainly busy in residential sales of properties below 700,000, in the Gulf Islands/on Vancouver Island, the “real season” is just beginning…by October, sales should be occurring in all property segments.

For Salt Spring Island, the Gulf Islands, Vancouver Island? Slow but sure recovery…& eventually activity will be seen in all price points/property types.

Our market sales window has truncated down to July/August/September/October.Offers may come in later, but chances are that the viewing took place in those four intense months.

If a realtor is actively presenting a property, year-long, then a seller needs to have faith that they will deliver a buyer in the physicality timeline. The sale process is a slow one, for many reasons, in all secondary home markets.

In lieu of a monthly market update, this 2014 recovery year, I plan to let July/August take place…by mid-September, the shift should be clear, with provable statistics. Will report back in with verifiable statistics then, as opposed to reasoned projections right now. Important to let the beginning weeks of our “real market” take place. The rhythm/speed of our recovery is not yet totally clear.

Meantime, any questions, please contact me. I offer weekly driveby lists of all listed properties (not just board related options), plus weekly “solds to date” reports of all sales (not just board related options). The full information is thus always possible with me.

In September, I will report back with the total “actuality”, to that point. Meantime, it’s Summer, in the supremely beautiful Pacific Northwest Coast…enjoy!

Looking for your special piece of paradise? Your best interests are my motivation.

Whether buying or selling, please contact me for excellent service & all information. Knowledge is key.

Thank you!