Market Analysis

Salt Spring Island real estate in depth monthly analysis by Sea to Sky Properties’ broker, Li Read

June, 2012

June, 2012.

June…a feast for the senses in our part of the beautiful Pacific Northwest Coast.

The month of roses, of lilacs, of snapdragons, of lavendar, of orchards blossoming to fruition…lush and fragrant and so inviting!

Salt Spring and the Gulf Islands are a part of this envelope of largesse. Breathe it in…enjoy those patios that offer cappuccinos & green tea lattes…kayak out to meander Ruckle Park…dream into the sunsets from Vesuvius Beach…be inspired by vista (2) vistas…ocean and islands and mountains melding into silver and light. Beauty everywhere!

Lucky to be a visitor, lucky to be able to live here. Sometimes, though, it’s about timing.

Market-wise, we are nearing the half-way moment in this year’s rhythm.

To date, the sales action has continued in the entry level priced residential category.

The price ceiling for this property segment has been rising and inventory has been thinning…both good signs that a slow uptick is underway. This appears to be a general feature in all secondary home/discretionary areas.

Good news, after the past three to four “flat” years in our kind of discretionary area. No one “has to” buy a second home or a recreational property or a retirement investment…such marketplace regions can be put on hold, during troubled economic times. That describes the lack of action in the immediate (four year!) past.

Markets move in cycles. Are we in year 7 of a 7 to 10 year cycle in real estate and hard asset investing? If so, then we are in a natural upticking pattern.

By Spring of 2013, we should thus see increasing action in the undeveloped land & upper tier priced residential & in the commercial options. By Fall 2013, it should be a seller’s market once again.

Sound impossible? Motivation to preserve capital & to seek safe havens may be the propellers to this shift.

Those sellers who were able to wait out the downturn years will benefit from this shift into more buoyant times.

It is what it is, though, and, in a sense, we are all prisoners of our time.

Choice is the name of any secondary home marketplace…no one “has to” buy a recreational property, or a retirement option, or an investment purchase…it’s all at the behest of the buyer. We can be put “on hold” until things improve.

On the other hand, there now seems to be a move towards preservation of capital…a safe haven seeking. That is a strong propeller to action.

So, at an authentic shift moment, everything is on the table…up, down, seller moving towards a buyer and buyer moving towards a seller…it’s all there, and all at once! Inventory clean-out is a part of it, too.

At this beginning moment, at the start of June, much is yet to come forward. Our real market is July/August/September…almost upon us!

Meantime, enjoy the beauty of our area…a place to restore the soul!

May 2012, Salt Spring Island Real Estate Market Analysis

Copyright, Li Read, 2012

May, 2012.

It’s Spring in more ways than one…the slow uptick in the real estate market continues. Is this the renewed market everyone has been seeking?

Beginning days of improvement are underway, after the severe three year “Fall & Winter” flat/inaction in the hard asset investment choices…now there is a re-emergence of sales volume…are we in year 7 of a 7 to 10 year cycle? Perhaps.

If so, it’s a natural progression towards stability & growth. All markets follow cycles, and the feedback from all regions is that sales volume has jumped up in the entry level priced residential property category. Prices are still volatile.

This entry level pricings segment always improves first…in our local region, we have seen a sales volume uptick of around 30%, although the majority of sales to date are below 700,000…& most sales still fall below 500,000.

Prices are not stable and there are still serious price reductions at the point of an offer, in spite of earlier reductions en route to the offer.

Action in the upper tier priced residential category remains very spotty/flat…undeveloped land options & the commercial segment remain without interest.

Nevertheless, an increase in sales volume of around 30% in the first quarter is a sign of an emerging market. And in our specific area, this renewed activity is fully there at the beginning of our traditional “season”: May to early October. Good news, then, to have seen the first quarter busy when it should be & in the price level it should be. Timing is key to all markets.

Throughout North America, strong sales & thinning inventory are the outcomes of this first quarter activity, & this is now the case in secondary home/discretionary regions, too. Something new! Yes, the strong sales action is mainly in entry level priced residential properties, but this activity is seen across the board.

By July, all media options (they are always behind a market trend, as have to rely on statistics from past months) will be reporting this shift into renewed buyer action.

Why now? Perhaps the fear that cash is eroding as a means to preserve capital is making buyers reappear? Currencies are suddenly perceived as insecure, & there’s a growing desire for a safe haven, a seeking to be self-sufficient, a fear of the stock market’s volatility?…these all might be some reasons for the return to hard asset investment choices, & a resurgence in interest in discretionary properties. Suddenly, a purchase of a unique property in an area like the Gulf Islands is perceived as a good holding.

With huge uptick in entry level sales, which brings strengthening of prices & thinning inventory, and at the time of year this traditionally happens (first quarter), we are positioned to now welcome upper tier priced property buyers, & investors in land. May, July, August, early September are the key months, traditionally, for that investor buyer to appear.

The property market in secondary home/discretionary regions slowed in 2006. Sales volume decreased & a pause was very evident by 2007. The economic collapses of 2008 afflicted all regions, globally.

Primary residence/city markets saw a soft uptick in entry level sales by 2010…the secondary home/resort based marketplaces remained sluggish. Low interest rates never seem to jumpstart action. Buyers set markets, not sellers or realtors. When a buyer is “on hold” (& no one “has to” buy a second home or retire in any particular timeframe), then nothing will happen in a discretionary marketplace.

Price reductions don’t drive action. Those sellers who had the option to do so, and did remove themselves from the market, were wise. Pressure from companies to reduce prices (without an outcome) was perhaps understandable, from the company’s point of view, but it was not reflecting the buyer voice. When a buyer says: “I don’t know…I”ll think about it”…they mean it!

Now, the buyer is back, for the first time in the past three year period. The secondary home marketplace is busying up. By late Fall, we may see action having occurred in upper tier priced residential, in undeveloped land opportunities, & in commercial/investment options. We may be approaching year 8 of a 7 to 10 year cycle, and so should see thinning inventory/price stability/some multiple offer situations for unique & irreplaceable property options. Those owners who waited it out were wise; not always possible to do that, though.

The real estate industry itself continues to shift dramatically, in our post-Internet world. Change is the wallpaper of our global village. Thales was right that we never step into the same river twice. Now, as we enter May & the beginning of our “real” (& very short!) season, the buyers are back in our kind of market-by-choice, & the uptick is here. More info? Call me!

Don’t be looking in the rear view mirror…time for that down the highway vista!

Sales volume + thinning inventory + stability of pricing = movement to a sellers market.

And your thoughts are? Always welcome!

How may I help you to buy your special Salt Spring Island or Gulf Islands or Vancouver Island property? Call me!

April 2012, Salt Spring Island Market Analysis

April, 2012

Change is erupting all around us.

The change of seasons is the easy one!

The continuing evolution of our post-Internet 21st Century world delivers shifts on an almost daily basis, and in all spheres.

The MLS system is undergoing substantial change. The consumer control over connection means agent marketing must change, and what about social media venues for linking a buyer with a realtor and thus with a seller? What about that role of the realtor as the connecting bridge between a seller & a buyer?

Locally on Salt Spring, in real estate, we have seen the closing of a long standing franchise based local office and seen its office space & remaining realtors being assumed by a non-franchise off-island company.

I think this kind of amalgamation/restructuring will continue. The impact of the internet on all business models continues. Nothing remains untouched. The car industry, the travel industry, the stock market & financial side of investment, even education…these business models have completely changed because of that consumer-oriented Internet impact. The Real Estate industry is no exception.

The franchise model of real estate is a 20th Century and pre-Internet concept. Any benefits to a franchise connection were erased after the internet’s impact. The Internet delivered control of the sales process to the consumer of the service.

As the technological and consumer oriented world continues to progress, some franchise options are disappearing or are trying to survive by amalgamating with others. The “big box” solution.

Some others are attempting to fit the very different evolutions in the business world into their systems…add ons with the appearance of the “new” (meaning the “current”). Since the ground level is where the change has occurred, this band-aid approach may not be sustainable.

Localized boutique style and “niche” business models may be an arrow towards a new/different sales model…if such boutique ventures are using the Internet the way the consumer is involved with it, that is. One has to be where the customer is…otherwise, in the all encompassing terrain of the Global Village, the information won’t get to the consumer.

The bottom line: what system displays the information directly to the consumer, and, at the same time, invites a proactive response from that consumer? Ah…that is the question and the oh so sought after answer! Isn’t that what SEO is all about?

Real Estate companies put together an array of marketing ideas for their salespeople. The company charges their salespeople to use them. Nothing is for free. These options appear as logos on generic company sponsored business cards, and are mentioned on company websites.

To benefit from these options, though, an individual realtor would have to pay for their use. Belonging to a franchise company is the generic logo part. To use what that company promises, the individual realtors pay to take part. Unless they do that, the company descriptions are just logos, with no particular focus on specific listings/areas.

Marketing is about perception, of course. Even if no substance behind it, the mere statement of something promised will often create an initial business relationship. This does not deliver a hoped for result, however.

Be sure to inquire. Yes, yes…your company says “x”, but do you do that for me, as my individual realtor in my specific area? Be a savvy consumer!

A branch office of a franchise (each office is locally owned and operated; the franchise name is like an overall umbrella name), or a boutique option (specific to an area), or a realtor acting unilaterally, as a Licenced individual…the 21st Century allows them all, and due to the impact of that direct consumer experience, the search engine power, all of them are now equal in marketing venues. Now that is something different!

A “big box” name is sitting on the same level playing field, now, as the area specific boutique office or even the individual realtor presence. That leveling influence is, of course, the result of the consumer driven Internet search…with its capability that puts the user of the search in control of both the discovery & the outcome. Different days, indeed!

And what about that office? Is it real? Virtual? Does it matter? Not.

In the Ethernet space of the virtual Internet world, it’s the information that is being provided, to the searching & consumer driven “engine”, that is the essential item.

I always feel that our time is like that classic schism between the long ages of the agrarian lifestyle & the sudden, unforeseen, explosive impact of the Industrial Revolution. Those on the side of the older world experienced the pain of change & some jobs disappeared. Those on the side of the new world of the machine age experienced the euphoria of change & new jobs came into being. Sound familiar?

Change means different…something new replacing something old. In a post-internet business environment, the key is to get the information to the attention of the person who needs that information. However, that “consumer in control of the action” aspect means that the end user is in charge of the “where & the when” of the action.

I think real estate as an industry is in the middle of the change delivered by the Internet.

As a realtor, one has to be in the flow of the shift, and be attentive to what delivers the bridge moment between a seller and a buyer.

That is where a realtor lives…at the point of expediting that connection. Important, then, that the realtor remain nimble & willing to change, & to experiment, in the effort to connect a listing with a buyer.

Ah…in change lies opportunity.

Markets are not static items, either. This Spring, the Gulf Islands are showing a definite uptick in sales volume in the entry level priced residential category. It is just beginning to be felt by the upper tier priced residential options. Good news, indeed! We may be in the slow climb out of a downmarket…perhaps we are in year 7 of a 7 to 10 year cycle?

Our season is traditionally March Break to Canadian Thanksgiving Weekend, in early October. For the first time in four years, there is market buoyancy when there should be.

As a buyer, it’s important to recognize that the benefits of a buyer’s market may be dissipating. Seller’s market in place by late Fall or by early Spring, next year? Hmmm…change, remember. Being nimble..being in the flow of what is.

March 2012, Salt Spring Island Market Analyses

It seems, in our secondary home/discretionary area, that January & February are often a continuation of the rhythm of November & December, of the previous year.

March, then, usually begins the pattern of the current year, and the number of March Break arrivals to view property, and possibly to make offers, forecasts the summer season…busy at March-Break-into-Easter usually means brisk sales time from mid-May to mid-September (our traditional “season”).

We may be in year seven of a seven to ten year cycle, which means a slow upticking in sales volume may already have begun. To date, there have been fourteen firm sales, since beginning of January. Ten have been under 620,000…most below 500,000.

This steady sales pattern mainly in the entry level residential category has been a feature of the Salt Spring sales picture for about two years…this busier first two months is perhaps a sign of consistency to the marketplace…a good feature, indeed.

Sales in undeveloped land options have not yet improved. In a downmarket, buyers are not seeking a holding property nor do they want a building project. The slow roll-back of the HST tax may help in the new home category
, particularly in city or large town environments, with developments & spec housing…in discretionary/secondary home areas, where building projects are custom & personal options, the HST repeal may or may not create activity.

The upper tier priced luxury residential segment also remains quiet. In some few cases on Salt Spring & the Gulf Islands, extraordinarily motivated sellers have accepted very low prices, well below intrinsic or replacement values & also below tax assessments. Personal need is not noted by appraisers; they look at the sale price, only. These lower prices will affect stats.

In many cases, in the luxury segment, local realtors have encouraged very broad price reductions, in an effort to jump start action from a buyer. These reductions do not appear to create buyer interest. In a secondary home marketplace, a purchase is about choice…and that choosing can be deferred until the buyer sees a definite sign of a hard asset recovery. Buying is an action propelled by confidence.

Price reductions do affect all sellers, however, as it is essential to be seen to be competitive in pricing, when a buyer might be looking at equivalent properties, also for sale.

Thinning inventories may lead to price stability and then to slowly increasing prices.

Nothing ever stays down (or up)…that equilibrium moment, when the teeter-totter of a market cycle appears to be evenly balanced, is of very short duration.

Low mortgage rates are not the motivator to action that one might think. It is buyer confidence that creates a market response. Sellers and realtors do not create a market…buyers do.

In a city market, there are usually more entry level options available, overall, and correspondingly fewer luxury choices. In a secondary home/discretionary and resort-based area, the opposite is true. Such areas attract buyers lucky enough to own more than one property, or purchasers who, because of the Internet, can choose to live anywhere in the world and thus could work from a Gulf Island, or perhaps the buyer is someone who has done well elsewhere & can now choose a Gulf Island to retreat/”retire” to…it’s a specialized buyer profile who is in a position to create their personal dream.

A purchase in an area like Salt Spring Island and the Gulf Islands is about choice…and choice in timing is also a part of this. The buyer sets the pace in a discretionary marketplace.

The Gulf Islands are not municipalities…they are governed by the government body known as the Islands Trust. The Trust has been in place since 1974, & development on all the Islands is firmly controlled by strict zoning/density bylaws.

Bowen Island voted to become a Gulf Islands Municipality some years ago…the Trust & its bylaws remain in place, however. Salt Spring might consider this outcome, too.

There is an impression that the international market is moving out of cash right now and back into hard assets/commodities, including real estate. The continuing unraveling of the global economic picture has an impact on every region. We are in the post-Internet world, vitally interconnected, and the Global Village is with us. In difficult times, hard asset investment is understood as a way to protect capital.

An interesting sidebar to the post-Internet world is that it has not only erased time & geography, but has also made “someplace” in competition with “everyplace”. It’s a big world, after all! Choice, again….

Salt Spring Island and the Gulf Islands enjoy scenic beauty and environmental protection. They enjoy all of the amenities necessary to partake of life in the “real” 21st Century, and yet experience the allure of “yesteryear”. They have easy access to major centres, yet offer a village lifestyle. A temperate climate creates opportunity to be self-sustaining…the 10K diet is alive & well, here. A strong arts community, a dynamic cultural life, an oceanfront pleasure…these islands are in the heart of the best protected boating waters in the world. One is gifted to be able to live in this still very undiscovered area.

February 2012, Salt Spring Island Market Analyses

February, 2012.

January & February are the “winter holiday” months…skiers love the mountain escapes (Whistler
, Telluride, Vail, Aspen) & sunseekers are finding delights on beaches (in Hawaii, Southern California, Florida, Caribbean islands, and Mexico).

It’s a time when the Pacific Northwest Coast enjoys its “lull” time….we are a seasonal marketplace.

Property inquiries right now are mainly by phone, text, email, & Facebook, from potential buyers who are “elsewhere”…important then, as a seller, to be “out there”…have to be “seen” in order to be picked up on the Ethernet circles…that initial discovery is what brings interest, which is what brings a subsequent physical visit to satisfy that initial curiosity…then, if the visit “clicks”, there is an offer & a potential sale outcome.

This process all takes time.

Sellers need to understand the time lag aspect in all discretionary area sales.

On Salt Spring & the Southern Gulf Islands, the buyer profile is now mainly from out of province/out of country, and this has been the case since the Internet erased time & geography. Since 2001, perhaps?

In not being a “local buyer”, it immediately builds in time lags, regardless of market trend in play.

A downmarket trend may extend the time lag envelope, as the buyer becomes “reluctant”, but the distance between discovery to arrival to decision-making is a long one, regardless. It involves travel and discovery of an unknown destination…thus might mean two visits before a final decision is taken. It can take anywhere from 3 months to 3 years to sell a property in a discretionary area.

A successful transaction always involves a willing seller and an equally willing buyer. This equation has been a lop-sided one for several years, in our secondary home/discretionary marketplace…and it’s been the same, globally, in most secondary home/resort-based areas.

The “flat” period began in 2006; the economic debacle was evident to all by late 2008. All secondary home regions were afflicted by the fact that a discretionary purchase is always one of choice. One can put on hold the purchase of a second or third recreational home or a retirement decision can be deferred.

The uncertainty of the inflation vs deflation debate has also kept people, who are able to act, still choosing to hold cash positions.

Struggling homeowners have tried massive price reductions…with the strong Canadian Dollar against the U.S., and many sunbelt properties having reduced by 50%, we saw one of our traditional buyer profiles (Albertans) heading south of the border.

Price reductions did not work, for the most part, in our secondary home area…the discretionary buyer remains on the sidelines, and historically low interest rates are not yet generating sales action, either.

It’s about consumer confidence, of course. Until that returns, we can expect further doldrums in any secondary home environment, regardless of price point or property type, and that affects Salt Spring and other Gulf Islands, too.

Nothing remains up or down “forever”…all markets have cycles. In some areas of the U.S. there are reports of increased sales volume, resulting thinning of inventory, prices remaining suppressed but stable. This is good news, if authentic information and not wishful thinking. Statistics can be manipulated to support any particular situation!

I always think our local area is the tail of the dog…when the head shakes, the tail responds later, whether in an up or a down scenario.

It could be that we will look back two years from now & decide that the bottom-bottom in the housing market occurred between October 2010 & October 2011. We may actually be in year 7 of a 7 to 10 year cycle, which implies an upward process has begun. Sales volume will improve, if this is so, and sales of undeveloped land would also show improvement…a resulting thinning inventory would presage price increases.

Certainly it is currently a historic buyers market moment…price reductions of a substantial amount, good selection of properties, motivated sellers, historic low interest rates…what is needed is a significant recognition of this by the still reluctant buyers who could act.

This lack of confidence/lack of action is a global reaction to continuing economic uncertainties. Salt Spring & the Gulf Islands are affected, as are all secondary home/discretionary/resort-based areas. That global village means we’re all linked into the same information loop.

I always think that January/February continue what was going on in November/December. It seems to take until March to have the true tone of a year become evident.

In the meantime? Keep up to date on the day to day shifts in economic issues (the media will be sure to keep you easily in their narrow focus tunnel vision reports!), and also tune out, from time to time, to practice your periphery vision, which is always open to the creative spark that evolves the new….

If we’re in one of those major societal shifts, with the same lifestyle schism as the Agrarian/Industrial Revolution split offered, then our outcomes might depend on which side of the abyss we’re on. What abyss? Well, the one separating the 20th from the 21st Century, of course! If you’re on the right side of this major divide, then opportunity abounds….

There are always buyers & sellers. Inventory & prices may shift & change…the dance of markets is wave-like…an up & down rhythm.

Looking for details on “what’s for sale” & “solds to date”? Call me…Salt Spring Island, Southern Gulf Islands, Southern Vancouver Island…I look forward to helping you to discover your dream. Waterfronts, oceanviews, farms, building lots, commercial/investment, recreational…call me!

How may I help you to buy your Salt Spring Island or Gulf Islands property?

January 2012, Salt Spring Island Market Analyses

January 2012, Salt Spring Island Market Analyses

Happy New Year!

I think many people will be glad to see the back of 2011…we may look back a few years from now and decide that 2011 was the key year in the societal shift that has been underway since 2000. Key in the sense that change erupted in all spheres & all at once…political, economic, societal, and personal…you name it, it will have changed, shifted, evolved, erased…and what about the newly created? 2011 seemed to be the year all elements conspired.

The economic downturn of October, 2008, global in its impact, broadened from the housing bubble to the banks and to Wall Street. Now it has further expanded to the geopolitical level. Nothing is exempt…the Arab Spring, the Eurozone meltdowns, the economy continuing to wallow in the doldrums, the power of the consumer of services restlessly angry…think about the now global Occupy Movement & the new Russian dissatisfaction with potentially rigged elections…plus wars & rumours of wars & unrest in Syria, Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan, DR Congo…shift everywhere!

In change lies opportunity…well, yes, but the speed of change is the unknown. The internet’s binary rhythm (on/off, act/react) can occur in an eyelid’s blink. In the past, change was a much slower animal…in some cases, it was possible to think through a shift and to reposition.

Today, our technology has erased time, and instant responses are demanded. Flexibility has become an essential. Twitter’s immediacy gets data out there asap, and the reaction to it is just as immediate.

What about our editing function? Important to turn all that undifferentiated data into worthwhile information…what’s important/what not?

I like to save my projections till later in the month…so many trajectories underway: the uncertain outcome of the bid to save the euro world, the worry about the U.S. ability to restructure & move forward, the concern over outcomes in North Korea, the potential for unrest in China, the continuing dilemmas of terrorism & sectarian violence in Africa & in the Islamic world, and the potential for unrest in Russia. Important, I think, to digest the effects of the last quarter of 2011, and to see what the winds of change are blowing our way in the first quarter of 2012. Perhaps the real beginning to a new year is in early March?

Hmmm…the Chinese lunar new year is earlier this year, arriving at the close of this month, and heralding the Year of the Dragon. Sounding fiery?

Important at such moments of flux to remember what is important…to be thoughtful with our nearest & dearest, to be inclusive & remember those on their own or needing a helping hand, to take time to eat healthily, to walk that 15 minutes a day, to admire a beautiful day, to breathe deeply and to calm that rapid fear-based breath. Read more, less t.v. Move away from the virtual world and take five in the reality check zone. Learn something new…how about a foreign language? A humbling experience & a way to keep the mind active!

It’s the start of a New Year, with everything before us, second chances & new discoveries…let’s take five and accept the challenge.

Oh, yes…the real estate market…well, I think it’s hard asset investment time again, and that those who can will seek safe havens…both as a way to preserve capital and for personal safety/sustainability. Regions such as the Gulf Islands/Salt Spring Island and Vancouver Island will be on the shopping list. Inventory is medium, interest rates remain historically low, prices have reduced around 30 to 35 % between 2007 and now…sellers are highly motivated, allowing for further reductions at the point of an offer. An ideal time to be a buyer…. It may be that we are entering year seven of a seven to ten year cycle, and thus are already slowly on the way up…. Hmmm. Wish I could find where I put that crystal ball!

More information? Call me!