Market Analysis

Salt Spring Island real estate in depth monthly analysis by Sea to Sky Properties’ broker, Li Read

April 2013, Market Analysis

Spring! Blossom Festival begins the dance of Salt Spring’s season.

We who live here are lucky to celebrate a lifestyle in the midst of beauty. Our wonderful weather “season” is from now until the Canadian Thanksgiving Weekend in early October…this is a treasured location.

Is the government mandated Islands Trust control of growth the reason for the preservation of the environmental beauties of the Gulf Islands? I think so.

The Trust’s mandate was to preserve and protect, for the benefit of all B.C. residents, the park-like allure of these islands, and it was put in place in 1974.

I think most residents & visitors would agree that this was a worthy goal, and that zoning restrictions were there to safe-guard the beauty.

When, though, does a loose body of regulations solidify into intransigence?

Isn’t the point of elected representatives to interpret a regulatory framework, for the good of the overall community? In that interpretive role, isn’t it essential to allow for individual responses without being afraid of the dreaded word precedent? Did the Trust forget the people?

A community’s self-sufficiency is based on the ability of its population to maintain itself, to foster and encourage sustainable growth, to respond to changing times for the benefit of the entire community. Entropy is the result of an unchanging response. Entropy leads to the death of an organism.

Salt Spring has been blessed in past years to be what I call a stand-alone community. One did not have to leave the island for services/amenities unless one wished to…the island was not a bedroom community of towns on nearby Vancouver Island. Can we say this is still the case?

In recent years, did the elected trustees overstep their mandate and stray into lifestyle decisions of the residents? Businesses that gave work to local residents have closed and moved off-island. More may be considering this.

The big box stores in Duncan are only a 20 minute ferry trip away: Home Depot, Walmart, Rona, Staples, London Drugs, plus the satellites that go along with plaza life (Starbucks, Tim Hortons, KFC, et al).

The Chamber of Commerce also has a mandate: to support local/community businesses and to create an atmosphere of opportunity for them. It is a volunteer body.

Salt Spring, as part of the Islands Trust governance model, is not a municipality. There are two elected trustees per Gulf Island. There is also a CRD director…CRD stands for Capital Regional District. This is also an elected position. As an unincorporated area, Salt Spring is under Victoria’s CRD re building permits, septic installations, etc.

One can see, though, as population slowly grew, since 1974, that there was a void there. The Trust is about land use bylaws. The CRD is about granting septic and building permits, so that construction is to current code requirements. There is no local elected mayor/council to aid the community’s progress.

What about an overall plan to ensure that residents lifestyles are also encouraged and preserved?

There is no funding from the provincial government to the local Chamber, as the Island is not a municipality. Thus, Chamber activities to benefit local businesses are all volunteer driven…with monetary support for tourism related events raised from the same local businesses.

The economic meltdowns between late 2008 and late 2012 caused tourism to halt in all secondary home/discretionary areas. On Salt Spring, tourism in 2010 & 2011 was apparently down by 40%. This affected accomodations, restaurants, studios, galleries, real estate…which in turn affected lawyers, contractors, architects, etc. It’s a wheel that rolls or else falters and collapses.

There is, at the moment, a sense that no one has been looking after the preservation of the Island’s lifestyle…no one helping the residents.

When I arrived in 1989, it seemed that “everyone” was here: affluent, old hippies, artists, farmers, retirees, young families, teachers, nurses, ferry employees, retail owners, summer people, spec builders, etc. Just the normal mix in any small rural community.

So…what happened?

Is it just the law of unintended consequences at work? Is it that those initial regulations to address uncontrolled growth have spawned into more regulations, narrowing interpretations of original bylaws, simply to fill a void?

The community did seem, in the 80s and early 90s, to work together…it still comes together to help when someone is afflicted with an accident or loss by outside circumstances. There now, though, also seems to be a very divisive attitude in evidence…fixed positions…no conversation of negotiation.

I sense that Salt Spring is well on its way to being a safe haven for an affluent buyer. It may be that those who service such an area will be coming from off island. The Trust’s point in 1974 was to preserve the park. This was accomplished.

A decision to control growth in a beautiful area does have the effect of making it a place one has to be able to afford. The Trust created, on all the Gulf Islands, an eventual outcome of being expensive places to live. The old adage of supply and demand in play.

It is what it is.

The Trust could have created thoughtful affordable housing zonings, industrial land groupings, & thus have preserved small family businesses, that hire locals, that support other local businesses. They did not.

Currently, there is a governance study underway on Salt Spring. There will be an eventual referendum to decide whether or not to have a Gulf Islands Municipality. This is the second such study/referendum process.

If a yes vote? The Trust would remain, with two elected trustees, and the bylaws in place. The CRD role would be taken over by an elected council, on Salt Spring, and so there would be local people in place to look after lifestyle options for the residents. The encroachment of the Trust into this realm, to fill a void, would end. The Trust, its elected local trustees, and its land use controls would remain.

Very recently, the CRD has struck a committee known as the EDC (Economic Development Committee). This committee has pulled people from local groups such as: accomodations, tourism, chamber volunteer groups…is it a think tank? Is it working to fill that local presence void, in case the governance study outcome is a nay vote? Are your concerns being met? Ask questions!

Is incorporation a good idea for Salt Spring? Attend the meetings, listen with an open mind. It’s an important issue with a serious outcome, on either side of the question.

My hope is that Salt Spring Island will remain that vibrant stand-alone community structure, with opportunity for all population segments. How best to ensure this?

Be a part of the decision making…it’s your island, after all. Be informed.

Tourism engenders real estate outcomes and thus ensuing good business outcomes for all other enterprises. Another reason to support the Chamber of Commerce.

The real estate market on Salt Spring Island, the Gulf Islands, and on Vancouver Island is still slow in sales. There is an increase in interest…inquiries are stronger…there is no marked trend, yet. In 2012, most sales were in entry level residential. In the final months of the year, some upper tier priced residential options found their buyer…at reduced price points from list pricings. Undeveloped land and commercial options remained “flat” throughout 2010, 2011, and 2012.

It may be that 2013 will be a year of authentic recovery in real estate in our secondary home/discretionary area. It may take until July to see this build in. The main sales now take place, in our seasonal marketplace, between mid-July and November. With the impact of the Internet, it’s important to be listed and “present”…otherwise, how will the searcher discover a specific property? Perhaps by early May, the trend-line for 2013 will be sufficiently in place to see a pattern.

The driver to action this year may be the seeking of a safe haven. Preservation of capital and the ability to be self-sustaining are powerful motivators to action. The cash on the sidelines may be flowing back into secondary home markets, and globally so. The issues in Cyprus, towards the end of March, may have hastened this shift out of cash, held in savings, in financial institutions.

Many insecurities abound, globally, and the Gulf Islands are not exempt.

What can we appreciate? A micro-climate that enjoys a year round opportunity, farms and the 10K diet are alive & well. The best protected boating waters in the world, at our doorstep. Ecological beauties to enjoy. Creative & thoughtful people to bring forward solutions to 21st Century issues. Lucky us, we who now call this region “home”.

May I help you to discover your special property on Salt Spring Island, on the Gulf Islands, and on Vancouver Island? Your best interests are my motivation. Please call…look forward to meeting you, and to helping you become an Islander, too!

March 2013, Market Analysis, Salt Spring

In like a lamb, out like a lion…

love those weather lore quotes. Always said with firmness, as if weather is a known quantity, unchanging, to be counted on.

March hovers between winter’s grey and Spring’s allure. This might be the year where we are gifted with one of those delectable Pacific Northwest Coast early Spring moments…fingers crossed.

A change of seasons is always welcome. Other changes may not be so pleasing. Attitude decides, perhaps?

Our moment in time seems to be about nothing but change, where suddenly what used to work no longer does.

The eraser of the Internet just keeps brushing through all of society, wiping clean earlier solidities.

That search engine eye never sleeps. Anyone anywhere (if governments allow it) can seek and find. Suddenly the seeker of information is in control of the process.

We can buy cars via an Internet search. We can buy stocks through Internet trades, do our banking online, purchase gifts and groceries and household items online, discover real estate choices via Internet marketing, make travel arrangements and accommodation bookings online, pay bills, meet significant others, and take part in online delivered education choices. Medical appointments dealt with virtually, books and music purchased and enjoyed online, business webinars held in lieu of flights to meetings in central locations…there is no aspect of our business and personal lives untouched by the impact of the Internet. Retail storefronts are abandoning their fixed locations and easing into online versions. What does this mean for commercial malls? What about the disguises offered by virtual worlds?

Two realities are meshing…face to face and virtual meet-ups. Isn’t that what social media is all about? Is one encounter better than the other?

Hybrid pre-Internet beings are betwixt and between, able to speak both Twentieth Century dialect and Twenty-First lingo. Post-Internet inhabitants don’t understand what all the fuss is about…it’s all just the surround sound of our time…the wallpaper, if you will, and not to be paid attention to.

So, a table of diners in a restaurant are observed flowing between texting those not present on that ubiquitous smart phone and chatting to each other…often at the same time. People walk along texting or checking emails or making calls. Laws are passed to prohibit driving and texting or using a cell phone, at the same time.

That smart phone blurs the physical and the mind’s eye, floating us between here and there, and effortlessly so.

Neither good nor bad…just what is.

Language is an elastic communication device, and as Marshall McLuhan reminded us: “the medium is the message”. So what if twitter and texting prescribe short-hand symbols? As long as the messaging is understood by the recipient, does it matter?

We live in a time when everything is still available to us, pre and post Internet styles seemingly evenly weighted. The terrain continues to quickly evolve. Still a brief time left to enjoy this moment of shift, between two world views.

Oh, yes…all you hybrid beings out there: how long did it take you to figure out LOL?

Laughter, remember, is essential at the cellular level. Out loud is just fine with me.

February 2013, Market Analysis, Salt Spring

Did you know?

Salt Spring Island has a hospital, plus extensive seniors oriented opportunities. A superb retirement lifestyle is available.

It has 3 elementary, one middle, & a state of the art senior secondary school. There is a private school on island, too. A great family oriented lifestyle can be found here.

Salt Spring also offers a theatre (ArtSpring), an indoor pool, and a brand new library resource centre in the heart of Ganges Village.

Two marinas, a Sailing Club with private dockage, plus 8 lakes (4 of them open to the public for swimming, sailing…no power motors allowed on the lakes).

Lovely beaches, easy access for beachcombing, swimming, kayaking, sailing…and always that alluring environmental beauty, preserved by the Islands Trust (the form of governance on the Gulf Islands).

Parks, hiking/walking opportunities (clubs to get involved with, if desired), plus a vibrant arts based economy (galleries, studio tours, artisan markets & craft fairs).

The 10K diet is alive and well…farmers markets, farmgate stalls where you pick up free range eggs and garden produce & leave the money for same (the honour system works here). Vineyards that produce award-winning wines…the islands are similar to conditions in the Loire Valley, in France.

3 ferries (from Vancouver Island, Victoria, & mid-Vancouver Island), plus 3 floatplane companies (regular skeds out of Vancouver downtown & airport, from Vancouver Island’s Maple Bay, & from Victoria’s airport) with year round service, and with seasonal service from Kenmore Air out of Seattle…very easy to come & go from Salt Spring!

Nothing is absolutely perfect, ever, but Salt Spring Island and the Canadian Gulf Islands come close!

The micro-climate is only one part of the charm of these special islands. Growth is curtailed by the stringent zoning/bylaws of the Islands Trust, in place since 1974. This lower rate of development, & subsequent smaller inventory of properties, can keep prices somewhat higher than an equivalent property on Vancouver Island, for example, where growth occurs more readily.

More info and details on how you can be a part of the Island lifestyle? Call me!

The Market

The real estate market is always a cyclical rhythm…between 2002 and 2005, sales volume on Salt Spring apparently rose by 50% and pricing by around 60%.

The economic slowdown showed up in secondary home/discretionary marketplaces, including on the Gulf Islands, by mid-2007.

The global economic meltdowns of late 2008 left no one exempt.

Between 2009 and 2011, sales in discretionary markets were very slow and conditions remained flat on Salt Spring and the Gulf Islands.

The first half of 2012 in secondary home markets saw sales rise in entry level residential options…volume in this specific segment saw a rise of around 30% on Salt Spring, but prices remained highly volatile/unstable…price reductions of a very substantial nature took place throughout a listing period, in all property types, and another reduction usually occurred at the point of any offer, regardless.

In the last weeks of 2012, some upper tier priced residential offerings on Salt Spring found buyers…with the same substantial price reduction dance en route and a further reduction at the point of the offer.

Prices may have suppressed on Salt Spring and the Gulf Islands by around 35%, between late 2008 and mid-2012, according to some appraisers. In many properties, this drop in market value is mirrored by a reduction in 2013 government property tax assessments (the government looks at sales from the previous year).

Sales of undeveloped land and commercial/business options and cottage/recreational offerings all still remain very flat in secondary home regions. That reluctant buyer profile has not yet decided to invest in raw land opportunities, perhaps.

Projections are calling for a stronger real estate market in 2013, with all property types and price ranges forecast to see an uptick in activity. For Salt Spring and the Gulf Islands, it may take until the summer/fall market to see strength in sales volume. As inventory thins, prices will stabilize. Will the first part of 2013 thus signal the end of buyers market conditions? Possibly….

January 2013, Market Analysis, Salt Spring

Market’s Promising Show of Continuing Strength

2013 is promising to show continuing strength in hard asset investment choices, & of course real estate is considered the premier opportunity for same.

Salt Spring Island Real Estate

2013, Salt Spring Island Real Estate

In 2012, on Salt Spring Island & in most Vancouver Island secondary home communities, the entry level residential category showed the most favour. 3 bed/2 bath options, in good order, found an investor-buyer…getting out of the banks/stock market & seeking that rental passive-income stream may have been the incentive to sales volume.

Towards the close of 2012, oceanfront residential below 1.9 began to find favour.

Significant Price Reductions at close of 2012

In most cases, there had been significant price reductions over substantial timelines…both realtors & real estate companies and concerned sellers all seeking that elusive bottom.

At the point of an offer, there was usually a further price reduction delivered at that time. The buyer, especially in secondary home/discretionary regions is always in control of outcomes. No one has to buy a second or recreational home…no one has to retire at any particular moment…everything is by choice.

While it remains (for the moment) without activity over 2 million, in the residential category, and still without action in undeveloped land choices, & in cottage/retreat opportunities, and without interest in commercial/business options, it’s clear that 2012 ushered in consistency in that 3 bed/2 bath family residential opportunity, & in both primary residence & in secondary home markets…this will strengthen & grow in 2013.

Sales Volume in 2012

Sales volume in 2012 was up dramatically, then, up to a certain price point, and only in residential. There was no price stability.

By the summer season in 2013, all property segments should see the activity so far only enjoyed by residential offerings. Thinning inventory brings price stability, & in some cases creates price escalation.

The uptick is underway.

It seems that the patterns of the last two months of a year are mirrored in the first two months of the new year…especially so in a secondary home/discretionary region. It takes time in a discretionary marketplace to catch the trends flavour of a year.

In our recreational regions there is a seasonality to physicality/viewings…March Break to Canadian Thanksgiving in October, perhaps?

Search Engines Never Sleep

However, the eye of the search engine never sleeps…essential to be visible at all times. Essential to be discovered. That’s what brings the physicality. There is no time in an Internet search. It is always. If you’re for sale, be visible…it’s no longer about waiting for Spring, & better weather. Somewhere, someone is searching.

1% of a buyer discovery comes off print. In a city 7% off signage. On a Gulf Island? Maybe back to that 1%. The buyer profile is not local in a discretionary area. That means the bulk of buyers in such regions come off an Internet search.

Local print media does not bring them to the island & neither does local signage.

While important to be there, the mls system no longer delivers buyers the way it once did…globally, there is no mls system. It’s a North American item. Buyers from Asia & Europe & U.K. are not seeking information off an mls system.

Franchise “big box” companies no longer deliver referral business as was the case in the pre-Internet era.

Hmmm…everything & nothing are both important in the hunt for the elusive buyer. What do I mean by this? Call me…let’s discuss the profound changes in marketing in today’s consumer driven & post-internet real estate industry. What will work for you? Let’s talk!

In change lies opportunity.

The economic downturn was in play by early 2007. The collapses of late 2008 were just the visible outcomes. Now, the uptick is underway, and as usual the mainstream pack has missed the signals…too much rear view mirror gazing & not enough looking down the highway?

These are just the opening days of this New Year…much to solidify in the coming weeks. By late February/early March, the tone of this calendar year will be clearer, in our secondary home marketplace.

Is the buyers market over? What’s next? Contact me, for some thoughts on this and also on how to create value for you, in a real estate holding.

December 2012, Market Analysis

Some market thoughts, as we go into this final month of the year. These are some of my impressions of 2012, and already it’s time to be looking forward to 2013’s adventure.

Sales Volume Up

It’s been good news in 2012, though, for real estate sales in secondary home regions, & that includes on Salt Spring & other Gulf Islands & in Vancouver Island communities. On Salt Spring, sales volume was up dramatically in entry level residential options, over the past two years.

The real estate downturn has been with us, in the residential segment, since 2006…certainly in secondary home/discretionary regions…& globally so. Not just about Salt Spring or another Gulf Island or Vancouver Island or Sunshine Coast, then…the absence of action, this slowing sales activity, was also visible in Spain & Aspen & Muskokas & Turkey…any seasonal/second home marketplace.

No one “has to” buy a second or third home, or retire in any particular timeframe. Such decisions are always by choice, & this choice now also includes the location in the world, in this post-Internet time. Suddenly, “some place” is in competition with “every place”…time is an element in all transactions in a secondary home region. Choice of the where and the when of a purchase also delivers time lags in action.

Suddenly, “some place” is in competition with “every place”…time is an element in all transactions in a secondary home region. Choice of the where and the when of a purchase also delivers time lags in action.

Southey Point

Superlative 5 acre point, with easy access oceanfront, private coves and bays, warm ocean swimming, dramatic & panoramic views, deep water dock in protected bay, sunrises and sunsets

Chronology of the Economic Downturn

So, even before October 2008’s plunge into economic meltdown territory, our kind of area was slowing. 2006 saw maintenance of pricings & inventory but less buyer action. Same story in 2007, but by Fall of that year prices were softening. In early 2008, prices were apparently down about 10 to 12% and sales were perhaps down about 20%. By end of 2008, the world had gone into the financial abyss.

2009, 2010, 2011 continued the lack of action in all secondary home markets. In B.C., that included Vancouver Island (outside of core Victoria), all Gulf Islands, Sunshine Coast, all B.C. Interior communities (even once buoyant Okanagan “grid”). Only some few neighborhoods in Vancouver experienced the “Chinese effect”. The rest of the city remained quiet. In our local area, appraisers generally feel prices reduced, between mid-2007 & mid-2012, by around 35%.

In 2012, on SSI, but only in entry level residential options, a significant increase in sales volume took place…this action mainly fell between January & June. It revolved around 3 bed/2 bath houses, older properties/older areas…these houses would be best described as rental situations…family homes. The buyers, then, might best be understood as investor buyers & were not, in the main, end users. The majority of 2012 sales fell into this description…with most sales on Salt Spring coming in below $500,000.

Since late August, we have finally begun to see action in the over one million residential segment…with the same dramatic price reductions, for the moment, as seen in the early months of 2012, in the entry level category.

Buyer Profiles

A traditional seasonal buyer on the Gulf Islands has been an Albertan…throughout late 2011 & most of 2012, they were buying in sunbelt states where prices had dropped from 50 to 70% and the Canadian Dollar was around par or higher. Their absence was noted on Salt Spring, during the past two years.

Another strong buyer profile on Salt Spring had been a seasonal resident from the U.S. This buyer, since the economic downturn, has also thinned. Seasonal purchases can be put on hold, indefinitely.

Business of Real Estate Reactions

The local real estate companies reacted to continuing slow patterns by consistently dropping prices, throughout 2011 & 2012, searching for a bottom. Unfortunately, this doesn’t make buyers come forward in secondary home marketplaces…sales in discretionary areas are by choice, & can be put on hold until better times. Buyer confidence is the driver to action in any discretionary area.

Buyer confidence is the driver to action in any discretionary area

Apparently, according to Salt Spring’s Chamber of Commerce, tourism was down by 40% in 2010/11. Tourism discovery is a large part of real estate activity, I think, in any secondary home market. People visit, fall in love with an area, buy recreational or future retirement options…and that real estate purchase delivers activity to architects, designers, contractors, lawyers, site prep businesses, grocery stores, furniture/hardware locations, restaurants, retail outlets, galleries, insurance, banks…all of a community’s infrastructure benefits from a real estate transaction. In a discretionary region, the initial action begins with tourism…the discovery & enjoyment of an area.

If it’s true that markets move in cycles, and that the real downturn in all discretionary areas began in 2006, then we may be going into year 8 of an 8 to 10 year cycle…& there could be a natural uplift.

Until early September, 2012, there had been a lack of activity in higher end residential, in undeveloped land options, & in commercial/business opportunities. It may be that 2013 will see an uptick in these segments, to match the action seen in the entry level residential category, in 2012.

Certainly, just since early September, we’ve seen sales begin in upper tier residential offerings…up to 1.825…yet most of these over one million options do fall between 1.1 & 1.395, and most would have been on market for 5 +/- years, & all had reduced hugely…dropping from 3.3 & selling for 1.325, say. The original list prices matched the market at that time…then these properties followed the market down, adjusting prices consistently, seeking a bottom. Nevertheless, there are now several such residential sales between 1 & 1.5 million, mainly in waterfronts, & this sales action didn’t happen last year or the year before.

Apparently, in key U.S. States, where two years ago people were forecasting an inventory supply of 10 to 12 years, they are now down to a 6 to 8 month supply…again, mainly in the entry level price points. In that pricing envelope they are starting to see multiple offers…based on inventory thinning out.

In January 2012, locally, in the lower end, there was a price reduction delivered at the point of the offer, in spite of big reductions en route. By late June, a buyer had to come closer to seller’s wish list, and this narrowing of the spread between list & sale is another marker of an improving market trend.

In a transition moment, everything is on the table/all at the same time: good & bad media reports, sales & no sales, worry & euphoria…all going on at once. Makes it very difficult to clearly see a path forward, especially when a seller is just managing to hold on & this effort to survive is creating exhaustion.

Nothing stays in the basement or the attic “forever”. There is significant movement in real estate sales this year. Yes, pricing is not yet stable, but hard asset purchases are underway, & sales volume is slowly improving. Perhaps a preservation of capital seeking & a safe haven search are driving this shift?

By-Laws & Local Business Trends

Even with a second incorporation study & referendum to eventually take place on Salt Spring, the Trust & the bylaws remain. A Gulf Islands municipality is a special form of a municipal structure. There would still be 2 elected trustees, the overall Islands Trust document would remain & zoning/bylaw growth controls would remain. The CRD (Capital Regional Director) position would be replaced by on island elected council members. Salt Spring would have more control over tax monies raised. Bowen Island voted for this type of municipal structure some years ago, & one can study that Island’s outcomes. The cap on growth delivered by the Islands Trust’s “preserve & protect” mandate is a form of protected investment…over time, price points rise in such areas & lack of scope for development ensures stability of the individual purchase.

Locally, it’s disturbing that we saw both the collapse of Royal Lepage as a branch office & the closing of Mark’s, a mini-department store clothing franchise outlet, in 2012. Other small businesses may be struggling, & yet several new ones have opened. Channel Ridge development may still be unresolved, & yet Bullock Lake parcel’s new owner is trying to organize something on that former SS Village Resort site. Everything on the table at once, again? Up & down visible, all at the same time? A marker of a transition moment? With an upward direction? I think so….

I often think that January/February of a new year carry forward the themes of late Fall, of the previous year. It seems to take until March for the rhythm of a new year to be clear. Perhaps we will find a renewal of seller’s market patterns in play? Hmmm…where is that crystal ball!

Thinking of selling? Call me for full market information…be informed. Discover the strengths of my unique marketing presence, both locally & internationally.

Thinking of buying? Call me, and benefit from my significant knowledge (of both inventory & of trends), & my negotiating expertise.

As a full service real estate agent, with access to all real estate listings, & successfully connecting buyers with sellers, since 1989, I welcome your call.

How may I help you to buy your special Salt Spring Island or Gulf Island or Vancouver Island property?

November 2012, Market Analysis

Here we are, easing from Fall Market into Winter.

This has been a continuing slow year in real estate sales, but it has been busier when compared to past three years.

There has been a definite rise in sales volume in the entry level priced residential segment, but only marginal action in the upper tier priced residential category.

Very substantial price reductions continue to come in, from all companies, in all property types. These reductions do not necessarily bring increased showings or offers. They do encourage other sellers to follow suit, in order to remain competitive in pricings. At the point of an offer, the buyer often delivers a further serious price reduction, in spite of consistent price drops en route.

So, sluggish conditions & further price instability, in entry level residential options. Lack of interest in undeveloped land choices. Little interest in commercial/business opportunities. Sporadic interest in upper tier priced residential offerings, & very significant reductions at the offer point, in most cases. It remains a very uncertain market, then, with periods of inaction across the board.

It is marginally improving in that lower end priced segment, but there is no certainty that this means consistent stronger conditions on the horizon. Media reports, which share information from the recent past, are still highlighting gloom re economic statistics. In Canada, they talk about potential real estate bubbles.

So, Year 8 of an 8 to 10 year cycle now coming up?

Implying a resurgence in sales, though not in pricings? Perhaps…. Early Spring will tell the tale. It appears that the last two months of a year ease into first two months of the following year. Takes until March, then, to see any shifts.

A seller needs to be patient…in our kind of discretionary marketplace, the buyer is always in control of the where & the when of any purchase.

In this kind of uncertain economic time, price reductions don’t necessarily create a desire to act, on the part of a buyer.

No one has to buy a second home or retire in any particular timeframe or purchase a recreational or a holding property. It’s always by choice, in a secondary home market.

Confidence in the overall economy will generate buyer action in a discretionary region.

 

If price does propel action, it will be driven by such a steep price drop, so much lower than assessed or intrinsic value, that it cannot be ignored by a potentially interested buyer.

Even then, the buyer will have to be targeted towards this island, with some knowledge of the deep cuts over the past 3 to 4 years. It can take significant time from a discovery on the Internet to physicality on island, to view.

General inquiries are where a process may begin, but it can take a good two to three years for an outcome, regardless of market trend in play. Buyers do not have to hurry to a decision…there is no immediacy to action in a secondary home region.

What to do then, as a seller?

It’s important to remain visible on the digital options…targeted print, with an auxiliary Internet presence, perhaps…

…the Internet, though, is truly the driver to eventual outcomes, in our 21st Century business model. The Internet never sleeps. It has erased time & geography. If you’re for sale, you need to be visible there.

It’s all seasonless now, & when a buyer sees you, it’s all new to them. Time lags, from a seller’s perspective, are not part of the buyer’s perception. So, more patience on the part of any seller, in any discretionary area.

For several years on Salt Spring, a printed monthly real estate supplement, put out by our weekly newspaper, was the sole vehicle for advertising property listings. This all changed with the Internet search engine. This supplement has now gone from 12 issues to 7…it is always woefully out of date, as info is given to them, to print, a good two weeks before it appears. This old style print supplement is not seen until the buyer comes to the island…it does not “bring them”.

 

choice of a particular island

Marketing to the potential buyer now requires the ability to focus on & to encourage a choice of a particular island. The Internet certainly erased time & geography. It opened an area to a much wider audience. In doing so, it also opened up a broader choice…suddenly, “some place” was in competition with “every place”. Ah…more reasons for time lags. Can’t choose yet, because we haven’t seen it all yet! Too much choice creates reluctance to act? Perpetual looking is an outcome? Hmmmm….

Time…& yet not time…busy and yet not busy…rumours of improving trends in real estate at the same time as media reports from banks and government sources that further downturns are ahead…in a transition moment, all things are on the table, all at the same time. This kind of confusion often forecasts a significant shift. The question: up or down?

Not biz as usual is about all that one can say, firmly.

No matter the market trend, Salt Spring & the Gulf Islands offer spectacular lifestyle opportunities. It’s always a good time to be a buyer, if the time is right for you. It’s always a personal choice in a discretionary area.