Tag Archives: market

October 2014, Market Analysis

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October really is the segue from mellow Fall to stark Winter.

Early October pretends it’s still September…late October says, no-no…leaves flying, November’s almost here…it’s the Pacific Northwest Coast season of grey. (I think that means our form of Winter).

This thin strip of coastal beauty does offer a northern California “off season” weather pattern…& even more so on the amazing Southern Gulf Islands.

Salt Spring enjoys a “cool Mediterranean” climate, one that encourages orchards, berry production, vineyards, olive groves…& yet…Winter is Winter in any latitude that offers four seasons.

What about real estate sales in this soft “off season”?

What about real estate sales in this soft “off season”? The odd thing is that it can be busier in late-Summer-into-Fall than in the Spring/Summer season.

This change in physical arrivals on island, to view & to make decisions about buying, shifted into a last half of the year sales moment some substantial time ago.

It’s important to be consistently listed year round, if selling, so that a buyer can discover the property & then make plans to visit, & to view. The Internet search eye never sleeps & it’s important to be displayed to it, no matter the time it takes for a buyer response. The buyer profile for Salt Spring & the Gulf Islands is not “local”. Time is a component of the discovery-&-then-action cycle.

Very probable, though, that the arrival time to view will be in late Summer/Fall. Odd, when Spring can be such a beautiful time on this great Pacific Northwest Coast, but it is what it is.

So. The sales pattern to date: a repeat of late 2013. The bulk of sales remain in entry level residential, 3 bed/2 bath family homes, close to Ganges…good rental opportunities. This seems to point to a continuing investor-buyer purchaser, & not necessarily an end-user.

At the same time, undeveloped land sales, commercial/business interests, & upper tier priced residential opportunities remain flat segments. Random one-off sales infrequently take place, in these less active categories, but no clear pattern is yet in evidence. Also, in these random sales, a large reduction still takes place at the point of any offer, even when there have been previous reductions to that point.

Where are the best deals?

It may be, from a buyer perspective, that the best deals will now occur in the higher priced residential options or in the undeveloped land choices, in a secondary home marketplace.

Very slowly, there are whispers of interest in commercial opportunities, & from offshore investors. It may be that the strict zoning controls of the Islands Trust (in place since 1974) have an attraction…unique zonings, that can’t be repeated, have a value.

As inventory clears out, in that entry level residential category, it implies price strengthening. This may be the authentic transition moment between the end of a downturn & the beginning of an uptick. Rumours of mortgage rate increases, from recent historic lows, may also be a signal of an uptick momentum in a market.

The rhythm of the uptick is not a racing forward pattern…yet. It’s still a slow chug-chug momentum, but it’s steadily going forth. This consistency, even though most sales still remain in that entry-level category, is a very positive sign.

Not everything is market related… Other considerations…

It’s important to remember to appreciate the illuminating and naturally beautiful Islands we inhabit. Slightly “apart”, and yet close to major centres…with all services/amenities close at hand…with an interesting & caring community…with the thoughtfulness that an artists community encourages…with a self-sustaining lifestyle to preserve and protect…certainly, Salt Spring Island & the Gulf Islands are alluring locations to enjoy as a visitor or to call “home”, no matter the market trend in play.

Markets are a wave pattern. The downturn may have started in secondary home markets as early as 2006, though not have been totally evident till late 2008. The uptrend may be underway, now. Waves are not static, & markets are always in a flow of shift.

There are beginnings/middles/ends to all market cycles. Recovery also has a beginning, but it’s rarely even-handed. The Pacific Northwest Coast always seems to be the “tail of the dog”…last to see change. The secondary home/discretionary/recreational regions have been slow to recover, all over the Coast. Patience on the part of sellers is still an essential.

Buoyancy in that entry level residential segment, in these “by choice” regions, is a very good sign, & is the traditional start of an authentic market recovery. We may see more sales in the upper tier residential segment between now and early January.

August, July 2014, Market Analysis

The main real estate sales window on the Pacific Northwest Coast seems to have evolved into a Summer/Fall market.

This may be the case on Vancouver Island, on the Sunshine Coast, as well as on the Gulf Islands.

Secondary home/discretionary markets have a different pattern from primary residence/city markets. “By choice” regions have been slow to recover from this past six year downturn.

At this very beginning of July, the uptick does appear to be underway, although it’s not an even-handed recovery & most sales to date still remain in the entry-level residential category.

It’s essential for a seller (& their realtor) to showcase listings throughout the year, in order to attract that mainly non-local buyer profile…but the physicality timeline for this non-local potential buyer to visit an area/view properties will mainly occur in July/August/September/October….perhaps into early November, depending on Fall weather pattern.

Along with this later arrival time, to view property opportunities, we are also seeing more “interviewing of areas” first.

With the “boomer” retirement wave just starting, & a strong desire from many Canadians from other provinces to choose a coastal retirement location, it makes sense that they might vacation here a good year or two before actually moving to a specific location.

Thus, Salt Spring & the Gulf Islands & Vancouver Island are in competition with each other…the potential purchaser has to “buy” the specific locale, first, before seriously looking at a property to purchase. Why here? Why not there? Serious questions!

The Internet search engines do allow a global discovery/audience. All that potential choice of destination, though, can make decision-making slower…if one can go anywhere for a retirement or a recreational choice, then that very broad choice parameter might lead to hesitation in decision…one wants “to be sure”.

Hmmm….

Regardless of market trend, it can take one to three years to sell a specific property in any particular secondary home area. Time is always a component in the choice dance. Buyers set markets, not sellers or realtors. It’s only very recently that buyers are once again looking at the secondary home/recreational marketplaces.

The good news? Slowly slowly that secondary home/recreational marketplace is on the uptick, after that 6 year downturn. While mainly busy in residential sales of properties below 700,000, in the Gulf Islands/on Vancouver Island, the “real season” is just beginning…by October, sales should be occurring in all property segments.

For Salt Spring Island, the Gulf Islands, Vancouver Island? Slow but sure recovery…& eventually activity will be seen in all price points/property types.

Our market sales window has truncated down to July/August/September/October.Offers may come in later, but chances are that the viewing took place in those four intense months.

If a realtor is actively presenting a property, year-long, then a seller needs to have faith that they will deliver a buyer in the physicality timeline. The sale process is a slow one, for many reasons, in all secondary home markets.

In lieu of a monthly market update, this 2014 recovery year, I plan to let July/August take place…by mid-September, the shift should be clear, with provable statistics. Will report back in with verifiable statistics then, as opposed to reasoned projections right now. Important to let the beginning weeks of our “real market” take place. The rhythm/speed of our recovery is not yet totally clear.

Meantime, any questions, please contact me. I offer weekly driveby lists of all listed properties (not just board related options), plus weekly “solds to date” reports of all sales (not just board related options). The full information is thus always possible with me.

In September, I will report back with the total “actuality”, to that point. Meantime, it’s Summer, in the supremely beautiful Pacific Northwest Coast…enjoy!

Looking for your special piece of paradise? Your best interests are my motivation.

Whether buying or selling, please contact me for excellent service & all information. Knowledge is key.

Thank you!

July 2014, Market Analysis

The main real estate sales window on the Pacific Northwest Coast seems to have evolved into a Summer/Fall market.

This may be the case on Vancouver Island, on the Sunshine Coast, as well as on the Gulf Islands.

Secondary home/discretionary markets have a different pattern from primary residence/city markets. “By choice” regions have been slow to recover from this past six year downturn.

At this very beginning of July, the uptick does appear to be underway, although it’s not an even-handed recovery & most sales to date still remain in the entry-level residential category.

It’s essential for a seller (& their realtor) to showcase listings throughout the year, in order to attract that mainly non-local buyer profile…but the physicality timeline for this non-local potential buyer to visit an area/view properties will mainly occur in July/August/September/October….perhaps into early November, depending on Fall weather pattern.

Salt Spring Island

Salt Spring Island


Along with this later arrival time, to view property opportunities, we are also seeing more “interviewing of areas” first.

With the “boomer” retirement wave just starting, & a strong desire from many Canadians from other provinces to choose a coastal retirement location, it makes sense that they might vacation here a good year or two before actually moving to a specific location.

Thus, Salt Spring & the Gulf Islands & Vancouver Island are in competition with each other…the potential purchaser has to “buy” the specific locale, first, before seriously looking at a property to purchase. Why here? Why not there? Serious questions!

The Internet search engines do allow a global discovery/audience. All that potential choice of destination, though, can make decision-making slower…if one can go anywhere for a retirement or a recreational choice, then that very broad choice parameter might lead to hesitation in decision…one wants “to be sure”.

Hmmm….

Regardless of market trend, it can take one to three years to sell a specific property in any particular secondary home area. Time is always a component in the choice dance. Buyers set markets, not sellers or realtors. It’s only very recently that buyers are once again looking at the secondary home/recreational marketplaces.

The good news? Slowly slowly that secondary home/recreational marketplace is on the uptick, after that 6 year downturn. While mainly busy in residential sales of properties below 700,000, in the Gulf Islands/on Vancouver Island, the “real season” is just beginning…by October, sales should be occurring in all property segments.

Li Read Group

Li Read Group


For Salt Spring Island, the Gulf Islands, Vancouver Island? Slow but sure recovery…& eventually activity will be seen in all price points/property types.

Our market sales window has truncated down to July/August/September/October.Offers may come in later, but chances are that the viewing took place in those four intense months.

If a realtor is actively presenting a property, year-long, then a seller needs to have faith that they will deliver a buyer in the physicality timeline. The sale process is a slow one, for many reasons, in all secondary home markets.

In lieu of a monthly market update, this 2014 recovery year, I plan to let July/August take place…by mid-September, the shift should be clear, with provable statistics. Will report back in with verifiable statistics then, as opposed to reasoned projections right now. Important to let the beginning weeks of our “real market” take place. The rhythm/speed of our recovery is not yet totally clear.

Meantime, any questions, please contact me. I offer weekly driveby lists of all listed properties (not just board related options), plus weekly “solds to date” reports of all sales (not just board related options). The full information is thus always possible with me.

In September, I will report back with the total “actuality”, to that point. Meantime, it’s Summer, in the supremely beautiful Pacific Northwest Coast…enjoy!

Looking for your special piece of paradise? Your best interests are my motivation.

Whether buying or selling, please contact me for excellent service & all information. Knowledge is key.

June 2014, Market Analysis

Well, here we are at the beginning of June, a half-way point in our calendar year…yet only the beginning of our main sales window in our secondary home/discretionary marketplace.
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Our busiest viewings/potential sales timeline has truncated down to mid-May (two holiday weekends) to mid-October (Canadian Thanksgiving Weekend). The most active months are July/August/September.

These summer season months dovetail with the boating season in our beautiful protected marine environment.

It used to be that our Salt Spring Island & Gulf Islands destinations were seen as “seasonless”…people would pop in as visitors & as potential buyers throughout the year, although with summer obviously still being the busiest time.

Post-Internet, though, decisions as to tourism destinations are global & Hawaii, Mexico, Florida, Arizona, Palm Desert, the Riviera, Spain, Portugal are seen as winter season ports of call…plus New Zealand & Australia, with their summer in our winter.

payphone

The entire Pacific Northwest Coast, then, has become this seasonally oriented tourist destination…late Spring, Summer, early Fall. I do believe that tourism drives real estate sales in all discretionary regions, & globally so. A shortening of a visitor timeline affects all resort-based area business.

Post-Internet, a potential property buyer also has huge choice as to where to buy that second home, whether for future retirement or recreational for now….

Choice. Too much choice means that it’s difficult to make a decision. An extra element of the post-Internet world.

Time lags for many reasons are a feature of all purchases in any secondary home/discretionary region…including on Salt Spring & the Southern Gulf Islands. Patience, then, is necessary on the part of both sellers & realtors. The buyer propels a market in any “by choice” area.

After a long six years of suppressed conditions, with price reductions between 29 & 45%, depending on property involved, with properties remaining on the market between 2 & 7 years, this year has so far seen a serious uptick in sales volume activity on Salt Spring Island.

Though still mainly busy in the entry-level property segment, the inventory in this category has also been “thinning out” & price points have thus been rising…it was the busiest March Break in six years. This early point in our ever shorter sales window usually foretells our main selling season…summer/early Fall. All good news, then, at this beginning of June moment.

June is often oddly quiet, until the final week. Until summer, it’s a weekend business. The Gulf Islands are recipient markets, buyers are not local, & a tourist visit often creates a real estate sales result.

To date, most sales remain below $800,000, mainly residential…with the majority of sales below $600,000. A scant handful of sales are over one million. These are early days in our short seasonal market, & a true picture of this 2014 “year of recovery” may not be clear until late August.

One marker of authentic market shift, in an upward direction, would be the resurgence of the undeveloped land category.

There are many societal shifts underway right now. A seeking of a safe haven might be the reason for a return of interest to the secondary home marketplaces…including in the Canadian Gulf Islands.

The ability to be self-sufficient, the proximity to major centres, the peaceful allure of yesteryear in everyday life, the sense of community with all the 21st Century amenities at hand, with a temperate micro-climate, & in the heart of the best protected boating waters in the world…Salt Spring Island & the Gulf Islands are practically perfect.

Looking for your dream Island property? Call me! Your best interests are my motivation. I work for you!

There are many stellar properties awaiting your discovery: waterfronts, oceanviews, farms, vineyards, building opportunities, commercial/business options, acreages/lots…call me, & let’s view. This may be the tail-end of the buyers market….

How may I help you to buy your Salt Spring Island or Southern Gulf Islands property?

May 2014, Market Analysis

May to October is now our main window of opportunity for real estate viewings/subsequent sales, in our specific secondary home/discretionary marketplace.

Perhaps the two May holiday weekends (Victoria Day & Memorial Day) are the busier May times…June is often a quieter month, until the last few days…the July 1 & 4 holidays begin our summer season…with mid-July to end of September being the busiest months for property showings.
Salt Spring Island
Offers may come in at other times, but it’s probable that the initial viewings took place in that May to October timeline.

A secondary home market is always about choice.

A secondary home market is always about choice. The buyer sets the pace. Sellers & realtors present, & try to attract the buyer side, but it’s the buyer who decides the “where” & the “when” of a property purchase in a discretionary region.

Globally, the secondary home/resort-based areas all suffered after the economic meltdowns of late 2008. In many such discretionary areas, the slow-down in sales actually began as early as 2006.

Certainly, on Salt Spring Island, & on the other Gulf Islands, sales volume lessened pre-2008 & prices began to soften dramatically. Sellers did not appreciate the downward signs…it was a slow & steady down trend…in the end, appraisers were stating that prices had reduced by 29% to 45%, with 2006 to 2008 as the start dates of this down trend, leading to the close of 2013.

It may be that 2014 will prove to be the year of recovery in the Gulf Islands & on Vancouver Island. It’s a slow pace.

At the moment, at this early May time, the busy segment remains the entry-level priced residential category.

As inventory “thins”, we may see a move into sales of raw land…one might be able to buy a lot/build a dwelling for less than a renovation of a dated entry-level priced home. That will signal an authentic market recovery.
Skywater
Some higher priced residential options are slowly finding interest, although they have markedly reduced in price point & have accepted a still lower price at the point of the offer. As inventory also begins to “thin” in this $900,000 to 2 million priced segment, we will see price stability build in…this may not be evident till late Fall.

In these beginning days of what has become our main (& very seasonal) sales window, in our specific secondary home/discretionary coastal marketplace, it can be noted that the recovery is softly underway.

Investment properties are also seeing interest from a Mainland Chinese buyer…Sunshine Coast & Vancouver Island communities have benefited from this buyer profile. To date, on Salt Spring, some waterfront residential options have sold to Chinese buyers, & interest in commercial/investment holdings has just begun.

So…poised for recovery, at the beginning of May. The true buyers market has ended.

In the upper tier priced residential properties, there will be “deals” short-term. The key is the inventory clean-out rate.

It’s not a sellers market by any means, but neither is it a buyers market. Transitional markets don’t last…a market rarely rests in equilibrium…it’s either going down or going up. It appears to be an upward trend.

Will be interesting to look back, after the activity of the next 5 to 6 months…my guess: low inventory, stable prices, slow price point uptick.

More information on the market & how you can benefit from the changes? Call me! “Caring expertise…knowledge for you”.

April 2014, Market Analysis

Here we are at the beginning of April, with Spring totally visible, & with a very encouraging consistent buoyancy finally appearing in the local secondary home real estate market. At last!

Our very seasonal Gulf Islands real estate sales market now takes place between March Break & Thanksgiving Weekend. March Break was the busiest I’ve seen it in almost six years. A very good sign.

A good foretelling …

March Break usually foretells the rhythm of the summer season. Yes, it’s still mainly active in entry level residential, but the action is steady & is clearing out a lot of inventory.

At this early moment in the sales cycle, the business always takes place in that entry level residential category. In the main, single family home properties listed between 300,000 & 600,000 catch the most attention…3 bed/2 bath, with rental options. Recreational cottage properties, even waterfronts, remain quiet. These buyers usually arrive later in the season…perhaps tied to the boating season.

As we continue along our market cycle, however, I think we will find sales volume occurring in all property prices & types, including in some undeveloped land opportunities.

I’ve always thought that raw land sales mark the turn into a true sellers market. Buyers are again willing to hold land as an investment, or to develop it? Then we’ve turned a corner into sellers market territory.

I think 2014 will be the year of total recovery in the secondary home marketplace, but it may take until late October to fully understand the dynamics…right now, we’re just at the beginning of the shift into better times.

Down markets have beginnings/middles/ends…transition markets also have beginnings/middles/ends…I think we’re at the end of the beginning of a transition between a down & an up market.

In a transition, everything is there at same time: price reductions, price stability, price increases…buyer insecurity & reluctance, buyer rush to secure a safe haven investment…downward worries, upward enthusiasm. It’s all swirling around at the same time.

Nothing remains down or up; a market is a wave pattern…the slide up the wave does seem to be underway, at last, in all secondary home/discretionary areas, & globally so. Two years ago, one couldn’t give away recreational retreat properties in Greece or Spain or Portugal. Now, these markets are hopping!

The Pacific Northwest Coast (including Vancouver Island, Salt Spring Island & the other Gulf Islands) has always been the tail of the dog: last to go down & last to go up. Finally the uptick experienced in other discretionary regions has arrived here.

As this season progresses, then, we can expect to see consistent sales volume. As inventory decreases, with little new coming onstream to replace it, we will see price stability. This will segue into price increases as that good old economic axiom kicks in: the law of supply & demand drives real estate markets.

It may be that a seeking of a safe haven is the motivating force behind the interest in the Gulf Islands. The buyer profile may have changed, but the desire to own beauty, privacy, with proximity to major centres, combined with an easy apartness & a cap on growth (Islands Trust), all ensures that the Islands will always find their special & appreciative buyer.

There are many societal changes afoot, mostly as a result of the internet’s broad brush scrubbing through. The real estate industry has changed & continues to do so.

The treading water inaction in real estate sales, though, in the secondary home/rural marketplace, over the past five to six years, is over.

It will be very interesting to arrive at early November & look back at the pattern of this clearly shift year. We have just started our season & the good news is that March Break was busy! Let’s see what April & Easter Break bring….

The uptick is not uniform in occurrence, every property & area sells in its own time, but eventually all sellers will have the opportunity to sell. Buyer desire is back.

Should a seller sell? Might it make better sense to hold an Island investment, if possible? Hmmm…that’s definitely a sellers market quandary!

Buyers interested in a Salt Spring & Gulf Islands purchase are seeking the opportunity to enjoy that yesteryear lifestyle, with all the conveniences of “now”. The Trust’s zoning/bylaws to control growth, in place since 1974, mean limited inventory over time. That seems to spell protected investment.

In change, lies opportunity.

More information on current market trend & how you can benefit from it? Call me!

Your best interests are my motivation.