January ponderings…
The Roman god Janus gave his name to this beginning month of the New Year.
With two faces, one looking behind and one facing forward, Janus reminds us that every beginning carries with it some of what went before…and also introduces the new.
If you are interested in the Asian horoscopes, then it’s good to know that February 10th ushers in the Year of the Wood Dragon.
Change is The Wallpaper of Our Time
It’s taken 23 years for the real 21st century to finally arrive.
Early forays into websites and emails morphed into social media communications. It really is now possible to pretty much do one’s life and business off a smart phone. 5G speeds it all up.
Zoom during the pandemic closures got us all used to image only meetings. What will happen to all those empty office buildings? If there is a housing shortage (and there is), then why are they not being turned into interesting housing developments?
And what about AI? Clunky ChatGPT is only the rudimentary beginning. So: reality. Virtual, augmented, real…and so forth and so on. It’s called artificial intelligence…the second word implies thought.
If someone gave us a ticket to 1996, would we take it? It seems like a time that is already in the far far past.
Meantime, since change is simply the wallpaper of our time, and we must flow forward on this river of shift, it’s essential to recapture our editing function. Data is not information. What is visible on the internet may not be authentic. Only our editing ability will help us sort it out.
Is Real Estate Strengthening?
Yes. The almost two year “pause” (soft sales, low inventory, nervous buyers) of 2022/2023 is over. Prices are higher. Most owners do not want to be sellers. Buyers want to act. The difficulty about low inventory: not enough choice for a buyer. If they don’t find what they are looking for, they won’t act. Yes, there are fewer sales, but that’s because there’s less to sell. What will happen when many mortgages will be up for renewal in 2024? Often, secondary home/recreational marketplaces can be somewhat insulated from this renewal scenario.
At this very beginning of January:
There are approximately 77 residential listings on Salt Spring, not separating out single family, townhomes, farms, waterfronts.
There are 31 land listings, not separating out waterfronts, acreages, lots.
That’s a total of 108 listings…a balanced market might see 280 listings.
At the end of 2023, there had been approximately 179 sales, ranging between $55,000 for a mobile in a park and $4,288,000 for a waterfront on five acres. Projections continue to call for consistent positive real estate outcomes, based on strong immigration and lack of housing options.
The various government measures to increase rental stock and buyer options (vacancy tax, prohibition on out of country buyers, increased purchase tax for non-residents) have not proved to create more housing opportunities. Artificial government edicts do not take the place of encouraging private enterprise to build/to develop. The lack of housing will continue for some time.
Geopolitical concerns continue. Worries about inflation, and currencies also continue. Remember Voltaire and his warning that paper money always reverts to its true value: zero. Is another reason for buyers seeking out special properties in unique areas simply a desire to preserve capital? Is this also why owners are not wanting to be sellers?
Many changes in the real estate industry itself. Stay tuned as the ways to buy and to sell real estate undergo significant changes…just as all segments of society must grapple with serious change. Nothing is exempt.
January of 2024
Lots to think about as we emerge into early January of this New Year. It is a New Year and we can choose whether to look backwards or to opt for Janus’ forward staring face.
Meantime, January…a month to savour that every day is eight seconds longer. We are on the slow march to Spring. Now there’s a thought!
