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Salt Spring Island, November 2023, Market Analysis

November, 2023.

Feathered with Golden Leaves

November signals mid-Fall…forested hills feathered with golden leaves from Maples and Alders…more rainy days, and bursts of sun between storm tracks. Daylight Saving Time ends, and this adds to darker late afternoons. Some call it the cosy season and that image of a slower pace welcomes this softer season to Salt Spring and the Gulf Islands.

The 2023 pattern of the real estate market remains in place: very low inventory, in all property types and price ranges, and general stability in sale prices. Lack of choice for buyers remains an issue.

The Gulf Islands & The Islands Trust

Governments at all levels (federal, provincial, municipal) are struggling with the lack of housing inventory. The Gulf Islands, unincorporated areas (except for Bowen), are under the Islands Trust form of governance (a provincial government body put in place in 1974, with a mandate of “to preserve and protect” the Gulf Islands for the benefit of all B.C. residents). Strict zoning/bylaws prohibit growth. Two elected trustees per Island do not have the power to change the Trust mandate…the provincial government would have to do that.

Inventory & Immigration

Lack of housing of all types is an issue in all communities and the Gulf Islands are not immune. Lack of supply keeps pricing higher. Most owners do not want to be sellers, as world events continue to cause major insecurities…a search for personal safety and for capital protection are two threads behind current buyer searches…that flight from urban to rural continues. Social unrest is evident. Strong immigration to Canada, coupled with lack of housing product, continues.

A Fall Market?

So…November. A holding pattern in local real estate, with low inventory and continuing buyer interest. For several years, the main buyer profile has been from Vancouver/Lower Mainland. Outcomes in Vancouver do trickle down to the Gulf Islands. A Fall Market has also been a characteristic of Gulf Islands sales, for many years.

November offers: ArtSpring theatre events, craft fair at WinterCraft, farmgate
stands, receptions at galleries, folk club headliners, live music venues, easy access to hiking/walking trails, still lots to do and to enjoy.

The softer season…yes. Enjoy.

Salt Spring Island, January 2023, Market Analysis

Resolutions

January…it starts with resolutions.

There’s something about that blank palette at this very beginning of the month, in this introduction to a new year. We want to shape ourselves up.

A new year invites change. Change offers inspiration and also brings uncertainty. A mixed bag. The beginning of January is also full of forecasts for the new year…investment suggestions are at the forefront. The key question: how to be safe?

And what about specific real estate forecasts?

For Salt Spring and the Southern Gulf Islands, it always seems that the last two months of the preceding year are similar to the first two months of the new year.

Rise of Interest Rates

Looking at late Fall, 2022, then, we noted that the listing inventory continued to be very low. Properties below a million tended to be strata options or small homes/cottages (most needing renovation or rebuild work). There were quite a few residential listings between one and two million. Sales were mainly below the million mark. A very few sales took place between 2 and 3 million. That “middle” person price category of one plus million seemed to have softened by late 2022. Was this a result of rising interest rates?

Arriving at the beginning of the new year, we note continuing low inventory. Prices have seen downward pressure since late Fall, and this may continue in early 2023. Price reductions do not always trigger viewings or offers. If a buyer is reluctant to act, they will tread water, seeking some market clarity. Most buyers continue to be from Vancouver and the desire to drop urban and seek rural remains a propeller of action.

It’s a good idea to attend investment seminars, whether in person or by webinars/podcasts. No one really has a definitive blueprint in this time of shift, but it’s good to let information pass through us…something that speaks to us will jump out. Be listening.

I found it interesting that some major National real estate brands were surprised that very little inventory came onstream in late 2022. They had thought the interest rate rises would have led to a spill-out of listings. However, if they can, it appears that most owners are choosing not to be sellers.

Some Certainties Lie Ahead

The Canadian government is seeking 1.5 million immigrants by 2025 (that’s 500,000 new arrivals each year, starting in 2023). At the same time, the federal government is banning foreign purchases for two years…starting January 1. Mixed messaging?

As long as supply is low, it seems to promise price stability in real estate markets. CMHC (Canadian Mortgage & Housing) noted in 2022 that 22 million dwellings would need to be in place in Canada by 2030, or the lack of housing problem would not be addressed. Hmmm….. Add in that real estate keeps pace with inflation, and may protect from currency issues, and it seems that stability in real estate, especially in unique and beautiful places, may continue.

Until March, Predictions can be in vain

The very beginning of January is too early to make any significant projections about local real estate markets. Impacts of government taxation measures, interest rate rises, lack of supply, concerns about impending recession, continuing inflationary pressures, questions about currencies…one cannot ignore these global concerns. Locally, it always takes until March Break in the Gulf Islands to see the possible tone of this new calendar year. Continuing low inventory will be key.

Meantime: it’s the beginning of January. Time to enjoy the softer season on the Gulf Islands. There are always things to see and do…and every day is that little bit lighter and longer. Meteorological Spring begins on March 1st…a hop, skip, and a jump from January 1st.

So, time to hike and walk the trail systems, to do some early spring cleaning, to sort files and spiff up the office, to keep up on projections, to meander the art galleries (to inspire one’s soul), to do lunch at our great restaurants and ponder the views (important to support local), to take 5 as the great Brubeck played…and to simply be. A fallow field moment is always restorative. A time out.

It’s January. Enjoy!

Salt Spring Island, June 2022, Market Analysis

Salt Spring Real Estate Market, June 2022

Almost everyone agrees that the entire Pacific Northwest Coast (this includes Salt Spring and the Gulf Islands) is approximately six weeks behind the normal Spring weather pattern. A typical La Niña weather outcome. So…June will be May. Some forecasters say we may not see “real summer” until mid-July

Global Events & Salt Spring Island Real Estate

Meantime, the global concerns continue to roll along: wars and rumours of wars, stock market wild fluctuations, continuing pandemic concerns, supply chain disruptions, immigration pressures due to population dislocations, inflation, and the ever evolving tech changes that make some business models redundant while others become breakthrough patterns leading to the future. Well, that pretty well sums up this societal rewrite that is underway. That means individual lifestyle changes, too. Change is never easy…yet opportunity does live in change.

The lengthy covid shut-downs, with many events and businesses closed down for almost two years, did create anxiety, worry, and fear. In keeping lifestyles tamped down, out of fear, and so causing the demise of many livelihoods, quick trigger responses were also created…anger under the surface. Recovery after traumatic experiences takes time. As we hopefully continue to segue out of a closure mind-set, it’s important to be patient. It is easier to close down than to re-open. Essential to remember that we all recover from significant change differently…it is never one size fits all.

And what about real estate markets? The rush from urban to rural, brought on by the covid closures of 2020, and encouraged by the authentic ability to work from home, are still the main drivers to action in the secondary home markets.

In the main, the buyer profile on the Gulf Islands and on Vancouver Island is a Vancouver purchaser. The secondary home/recreational areas in B.C. depend on a busy Vancouver sales scenario. Pauses in that major city market create pauses in the rural outcomes. Low inventory and buyer interest still remain in place, at this time.

Residential Listings

At this very beginning of June, there are approximately 63 residential listings on Salt Spring Island, not separating out waterfronts, view, farms

Sixteen of these are listed between 239,000 and 995,000
Twenty-six of these are listed between 1,125,000 and 1,998,.000
Nine residential listings are between 2,100,000 and 2,890,000
Four are listed between 3,333,000 and 3,995,000
Two are listed between 4,395,000 and 4,595,000
Two are listed between 5,790,000 and 5,990,000
One is listed at 6,950,000
One is asking 11,975,000
Two are listed at 14,000,000

There are approximately 24 land listings on Salt Spring Island, at this very first of the month, not separating out waterfronts, view, farms, lots or acreages…simply undeveloped land.

Nineteen of these are listed between 259,000 and 998,000
Three are listed between 1,038,000 and 1,495,000
One is listed at 2,995,000
One is listed at 5,400,000 (a farm, three titles, 17+ acres)

Inventory Remains Low on Salt Spring Island

Inventory remains very low. There are now some price reductions on the way to a sale, unlike the consistent bidding wars seen in mid-2021, and often there are further reductions at the point of a sale. The key seems to be about the amount of remedial work that may be needed by a property listing. A step-in ready home may sell at list price…there may be more than one offer and thus sell over-ask…but this is less often than in 2021.

Salt Spring Island and the Real Estate Services Act

The frenzy of sales action occurred between February and September 2021, and buyers (perhaps out of fatigue) are more measured in 2022. In response to Vancouver’s hot market in 2021, the provincial government is bringing in further significant changes to the Real Estate Services Act, throughout B.C. These changes may be in place by summer. One such would stop blind bidding and another would enact a three day cooling off period for a buyer, after an accepted offer. Stay tuned for more definitive information on these important changes.

Was this past February the “top” in buyer activity? Perhaps for the short-term moment…it is about supply, though, and the serious lack of housing supply may continue to uphold the sellers market scenario for some substantial time yet. Low supply and the strong desire to be safe…which implies a seeking of a rural/apart lifestyle…continue to propel the Gulf Islands markets. In inflationary times, real estate is also often viewed as a hard asset that keeps pace.

Sales on Salt Spring Island

At this very beginning of June, there have been approximately 80 sales to date on Salt Spring

Forty-six of these have sold between 100,000 and 998,000
Twenty-nine of these have sold between 1,038,000 and 1,995,000
There were four sales between 2,000,000 and 2,559,000
There were two sales between 3,200,000 and 3,725,000

Meantime, whether it’s a continuing late Spring as June unfolds or a quick segue into summer-summer, the natural beauty experienced at this time of year is an inspiration. In our always daily busyness, it’s important to pay attention to this lush beauty displaying around us. Salt Spring and the Southern Gulf Islands are in the heart of some of the best protected boating waters in the world (a kayakers dream) and are located mid-way between Vancouver, Victoria, and Seattle. Easy to get to, and yet wonderfully apart.

Always Opportunity on Salt Spring

There is always opportunity if you are seeking to buy or to sell a real estate holding. In these erratic times, on either side of the sales equation, creative thinking can carry the day. The Islands Trust, a provincial government body created in 1974, to preserve and protect the Gulf Islands, capped growth via strict zoning/bylaws. This ensures low inventory, regardless of market trend in play. More information on this non-municipal form of governance?

March 2022, Salt Spring Island Market Analysis

The Seasonal Shift on Salt Spring Island

March brings meteorological Spring (early) and calendar Spring (later…the 20th signals the change of season) and this year also welcomes a later local March Break. The days are visibly longer, gardens and orchards show us the seasonal shift, and whispers of real Spring/almost Summer are everywhere.

It is a time to shake ourselves awake from winter’s cocoon message, and allow the season’s ease to invite us to also flower forward.

Yes, clean those windows, gift on things no longer needed, sort out the office (real or at home), and switch up the menus from soups to salads. You know the drill…time to welcome Spring with fresh thoughts and tidy spaces and new possibilities.

What about the real estate market at this very beginning of March? The buyer interest in real estate in secondary home/recreational/rural regions remains very high. IF owners become sellers, it is possible to achieve the asking price and perhaps even be in an “over ask” bidding war outcome.

Is Buyer Interest Still High? Depends.

That said, there have been recent sales that saw price reductions at the point of the sale. Does this mean a mixed market is evolving? Or simply that existing inventory requires serious renovations and the buyers are noting and making offers based on this necessary upgrade perception?

I always think the tone of a year for real estate sales in secondary home markets takes till March Break/Easter to be visible. The first two months of a year seem to carry on the last two months of the previous year.

What are some Signals of Market Conditions on Salt Spring Island?

There are always signals, though, that remind us that nothing ever stays the same, no matter if up or down conditions are in play. The key to everything right now is the continuing lack of inventory, just when buyers are plentiful. If this dynamic of low product and high demand continues, we will see price escalation in any infrequent new listings.

What are buyers hoping to find? Some are looking for acreage, ability to have a garden, maybe some animals (chickens? sheep? goats?). Some are seeking waterfront and, if boaters, a dock. Some just want a view (we are an island, and they want to see that ocean). Others just hope to find sunny privacy, with a sense of calm. They all want internet connectivity. In most cases, it’s a lifestyle rewrite…whether coming with children or couples seeking softer retirement opportunities.

What about those few sellers? Perhaps it’s downsizing or moving closer to children/grandchildren elsewhere, or perhaps they might even reconsider a return to urban if retiring from an earlier retirement island dream. If a purely recreational/cottage property, maybe it’s no longer used by the family. The key to letting go? The feeling that covid is erasing and it might now be safe to return to busier and more crowded environments.

Salt Spring Island Market Statistics, March 2022

At the moment, buyers hugely outweigh sellers, and that creates the “over ask” situations.

Residential

39 residential listings. They are listed between 129,900 and 14,000,000
13 are below one million, 10 are between one and two million
5 are between two and three million
4 are between three and four million
1 is between four and five million
3 are between six and seven million
1 is at 11+ million and
2 are at 14,000,000

(Two of them are mobiles in an adult park where one does not own the pad. Four of them are completion units in a townhome development and not yet built).

Land

19 land listings
12 are below one million
5 are between one and two million
1 is between 2 and 3 million
1 is at 4+ million (a 16 acre working farm parcel).

Sales

In a more balanced market, there can be a total of 280 listings (including both residential and land options). Right now, we have a total of 58 listings.

There have been approximately

27 sales to date
17 sales below one million and
approximately 10 sales between one and two million.

(Note: I update market conditions throughout the month via my regular blog entries).

The short supply of listings (and the continuing strong buyer demand) is the scenario in all communities right now. It is another reason why owners in our area are reluctant to list…they can’t find an option in the region they might move to, and do not want to find themselves “houseless”.

Local rules & Regulations to think about

The three levels of government (federal, provincial, municipal) need to rethink their permit process/regulations and also consider helping developers create purpose-built rental and affordable housing opportunities. Supply is always the key to markets. Taxation of existing does not open up healthy buyer or rental outcomes.

On Salt Spring and the Southern Gulf Islands, which are not municipalities, and which are under the governance of the provincial government body known as the Islands Trust, a reinterpretation of some zonings may be needed. Costs of housing and lack of supply are top of mind right across Canada. Salt Spring and the Gulf Islands are not immune to these pressures.

Hmmm….to protect and preserve the Gulf Islands beauty and rural lifestyle, while encouraging young families to come and so to service that lifestyle, it will require thoughtful outcomes from the people already here. On Salt Spring? Bring your ideas to some of the groups and committees working to keep the Islands their beautiful and thoughtful selves, while also creating present and future opportunities.

November 2021, Salt Spring Island Market Analysis

November 2021, Salt Spring Island Real Estate Market

Salt Spring Island, Fall

November…and already real estate projections are into early 2022.

More than Meets the Eye

The real estate boards and media reports note that fewer sales are taking place right now. That is the first part of this stats information…the second part is often overlooked: the reason for fewer sales is that there are less listings to sell. It is not about lack of buyer demand.

A full-on buyers market and a full-on sellers market are extremes…and are difficult at both ends.

A buyers market simply means lots of listings and very few buyers. Buyers are in charge of outcomes and sellers price reductions are a part of the scene.

A sellers market means very few listings and many interested buyers. Price escalation is often an outcome in any new infrequent listings. Scarcity with strong demand creates this. There are many disappointed buyers, all vying for one listing that meets their criteria. This has led to bidding war/“over ask” outcomes.

Salt Spring Island Fall Market Statistics

At this very beginning of November, there are 61 residential listings on Salt Spring, not separating out waterfront, view, farm…simply residential.

22 of them fall between 159,900 and 998,000
20 of these are listed between 1,074,000 and 1,999,995.
9 are listed between 2,049,000 and 2,888,000
3 property listings between 3,985,000 and 3,999,800
Two listings between 4,888,000 and 4,595,000
Two listings between 6,300,000 and 6,688,800
One listing at 11,975,000.
One listings at listings at 14,000,000

At this very beginning of November, there are 26 land listings…again, not separating out waterfronts, view, lots, acreages.

The land options range from 259,000 to 2,995,000.

At this very beginning of November,

248 “solds to date”…ranging from 199,000 to 5,795,000.

There have been several “holding back offers” situations, plus bidding wars, and many “over ask” outcomes. For more detailed information, please contact me.

Salt Spring Island: Sellers or Buyers Market

Projections continue to note that buyers are seeking rural places, where working from home is feasible, and where the lifestyle offers their wish list. Projections are also noting that listing inventory will remain low…most owners do not want to be sellers. Price rises are forecast. Buyers will need to continue to put their best foot forward, to secure a desired listing.

Are people land banking? Seeking investments that will protect capital? Maybe. These are uncertain times. Also, perhaps, the draw of a rural holding, where one might be self-sufficient, has an allure.

More information? Please contact me. Whether a sellers or a buyers market, there are usually work-arounds for a buyer to consider.

November is authentic late Fall. Weather will shift from fair to storm and back again. Live music venues, craft fairs, special events, gallery openings, hiking/walking trails to explore…the softer season still delivers pleasing experiences on Salt Spring and the Gulf Islands. Discover!

September 2021, Salt Spring Island Market Analysis

September Brings Fall to Salt Spring Island

September. Meteorological Fall is here on the 1st and the calendar catches up on the 20th.

Along with the seasonal shift, there are continuing government mandated efforts to diminish the effects of the fourth wave of covid. Masks are again essential, vaccination passports will be law, social distancing continues in public spaces, further closures may be coming if the virus continues to remain out of control, and booster shots are being discussed.

Global concerns, wars and rumours of wars, financial hesitancies (currency concerns, interest rates, inflation)…hmmm…turbulence continues in all domains.

Low Inventory on Salt Spring Island

What about the real estate outcomes in our region? The extraordinarily low inventory of available properties continues. In residential options below a million, bidding wars can still occur. In all price points/property types, sellers are often receiving “close to” or “at list” prices. It remains a sellers market in all the coastal areas, including on the Gulf Islands.

The main propeller to action continues to be a desire for a rural lifestyle, and it is now possible to authentically work from home. A lifestyle rewrite is a factor in a buyer’s decision to move to “apart” areas. Buyers continue to be mainly from the Vancouver/Lower Mainland region. They plan to live permanently at their chosen new location.

Sellers and realtors do not set markets…buyers do that. Buyers create action and set the pace in real estate sales. As long as buyers are desiring to live on a Gulf Island, sales will remain consistent.

Autumn Leaves on Salt Spring Island

Fall is a beautiful season on Salt Spring and the Gulf Islands. Early Fall can be a lot like late summer, and the fruition time continues. Lots to do and to enjoy.

With the return to some Covid restrictions, any large gatherings may be reconfigured or return to online versions (check on outcome for Fall Fair, for example).

The Saturday Market and the Tuesday Farmers Market continue…the farm gate stands provide amazing fresh produce and fruits/berries. The wine tastings at Garry Oak and Salt Spring Vineyards continue…award winning wines to enjoy here. The cideries and the craft brewery invite your tasting pleasures. The largesse of the season is here to be enjoyed on special Salt Spring. A WOW!

Li Read, Salt Spring Island Realtor

Thinking of selling? Call me for up to the minute market reports and knowledge of marketing opportunities. In a sellers market, there are few choices for a serious buyer…it’s still essential to optimize presentation in rural areas. The mainly non-local buyer is looking “everywhere” and all rural areas are in competition for the same buyer profile.

Thinking of buying? It’s true that a sellers market means less choice for a buyer, though there are always options for successful connections, no matter the market trend in play. It’s important to be pre-approved and so ready to act. It’s also important to recognize the authentic diamond in the rough…and to be willing for some renovations. Land, location, light, water…all in good order? Then consider taking on a property that will need updates…those are the ones that become good investments over time. More questions? Call me!

September on Salt Spring and the Southern Gulf Islands remains an inspiring month of natural beauty…many warm days, lots of clear evenings for star watching, and an invitation to enjoy hiking/walking trails. Patio/deck dining continues to be enjoyed (our terrific restaurants and coffee stops beckon). A softer season this early Fall moment…catch it!

Li Read - Blog