Tag Archives: salt spring island market

November 2024 – Market Analysis – Salt Spring Island

November… darker (end of Daylight Saving), post-harvest, thoughtful. Yes, it’s “fall back” time.

 

November 11th offers appreciation for those who served in wars past and those who serve today, to protect Canadians and their values, their lifestyles. Wear the poppy on Remembrance Day, in acknowledgement of sacrifices made.

Nature is wearing a more somber palette in November, as leaves drift from trees, and dark branches meet skylines. November speaks the tongue of grey…pewter seas, pearl clouds, charcoal forests, the metal hues of grey meshing with rain squalls that smear our vistas.

 

November…a time to light candles, investigate specialty soups, start to read a fat book, and remember to keep active.

Fall Market Trends

The real estate market? Oddly enough, the Fall Market can see a busier sales season. This has been the case in 2024, after an oddly quiet summer.

Often, buyers view properties earlier, and then they bring an offer later in the year. Sometimes, it’s about a hope that a seller will look favourably on an offer…the end of a year, the end of a season, and possibly a seller may just want to be out of the stress of selling. Sometimes that is the case.

 

Buyer Patterns and Market Dynamics

It can also be about the buyers rhythm…they know they want to leave urban for rural, but they have not decided on the “where”. Salt Spring and the Gulf Islands have competition from Vancouver Island communities, and buyers want to be sure of their decisions.

It takes time to visit areas and to make that choice of “where”. Until that is done, the “when” of a move is not in place.

Time lags are a factor in the rural secondary home markets. A buyer sees something interesting on the internet, then comes to view, then checks out other areas “to be sure” of initial impressions, then returns to seriously view available inventory in the acceptable price range, and then considers an outcome. This whole process can take several months.

Usually there are two and possibly three visits to an area. Fall is often when all the questions gel into answers and a buyer makes an offer.

 

There is no local market on the Gulf Islands and so visits are often widely spaced. It can take one to two years to sell a Gulf Island property. The outcome of this unknown offer timeline is that sellers respect buyers offers.

Since late 2020/2021, the inventory has been very low in most secondary home markets. Most owners do not want to be sellers. Sometimes, it’s because they can’t find a replacement property where they might move to. As something sells, little new comes on market to take its place.

The Gulf Islands are also under the Islands Trust form of governance, and that “preserve and protect” mandate (in place since 1974) controlled growth and maintained low inventory, beyond market forces. So, low inventory continues to be a factor at this very beginning of November.

In 2021, post-pandemic, there was a rush to seek safer, more self-sufficient areas (as in rural) to move to…”over ask” bidding wars became a feature. Inventory diminished. Prices rose. Generally, without further rises, prices have remained relatively stable since then. As the Bank of Canada has offered serious interest rate cuts in 2024, we may start to see some cautious buyers re-emerging. In 2022/23, buyers were reluctant to act. If seeking a move-in ready residential property below one million, then strata townhomes remain as the main option on Salt Spring…or else it’s undeveloped land and build.

The currency concerns (diminishing purchasing power of our Canadian Dollar) remain and buying real estate in unique areas is also seen as a preservation of capital decision. There have been some oceanfront sales in the two and three million range for residential this Fall, and this may reflect that investment buyer activity.

 

Mixed messages then, in 2024’s real estate market. Projections from “big box” companies are calling for an improving trend and busier sales, in 2025. It’s a difficult call to project into 2025, based on the haphazard 2024 patterns.

Interest rate cuts will have an effect, but it’s an unknown as to the degree of same. Are regular consumers still concerned about cost of living, of job security (what will be the real effect of AI?), of immigration pressures on housing, of continuing lack of housing? And so on…. Lots of questions and without serious answers the consumer may continue to rest on the sidelines.

Traditionally, though, lack of inventory and strong buyer desire do result in price escalation, and this trend remains in place at this very beginning of November.

 

Meantime, in spite of many concerns globally, and worries about election outcomes, the great Pacific Northwest Coast offers beauty at any season. November may sing the song of grey, but it also reminds us that it’s a month to allow us to step back into ourselves for a moment, to remember the fallow field opportunity (time to replenish our roots), and to enjoy the serenity of a quieter time. A little “mulling” never hurt anyone.

November: let’s pick a rainy day, meet a friend for lunch, watch the drizzle slide against windows, blurring the Harbour views… floatplanes chortling in and out, seal slithering past docks, boats straining at anchor, eagle hunched on a cedar branch, pondering…the amazing “wet coast” smiles hello.

It’s November. Enjoy!

July 2024 – Salt Spring Island

July 2024

 

July welcomes the ease of summer pleasures.

Canada Day on July 1st is the anchor celebration. Check out the Visitor’s Centre for all the special offerings on Canada’s birthday (including the classic car show).

Summer Activities

Markets & Food

  • Saturday Market
  • Tuesday Farmers Market
  • Wine tasting at Garry Oak
  • Cider tastings (two cideries)
  • Olive grove
  • Craft brewery
  • Farmgate stands
  • Al fresco dining restaurants

Outdoor Activities

  • Hiking trails: Ruckle Park, Mt Erskine Park, Channel Ridge
  • Swimming: Vesuvius Beach, St Mary Lake, Cusheon Lake, Weston Lake
  • Kayaking
  • Whale watching
  • Drummond Children’s Park

Arts, Culture & Leisure

  • Studio tour
  • Village galleries: ArtSpring, Ganges Galleries, ArtCraft
  • Live music venues: Moby’s, Legion, Treehouse
  • Restorative spa experiences
  • Unique shops and specialty offerings

Experience the creative and entrepreneurial spirit of the Gulf Islands. Take your ease and enjoy the summer pleasures!

Real Estate Trends


Real estate trends as we glide into the summer season? Although there can be lengthy pauses in action en route, the real estate market has seen continuing low inventory coupled with significant buyer interest for some substantial time…the effect of this ongoing trend is currently expressed in random pricings (stable, soft escalation, reductions at point of an offer… all are in evidence). This mix in outcomes highlights the fluidity of today’s world. The watchword of our time is “uncertainty”. This results in a stop and go pattern for buyer action, but it remains consistent.

Since 2016, most buyers in the secondary home/recreational regions have been from Vancouver/Lower Mainland. There have been ups and downs in market conditions over this timeline, but overall real estate has strengthened in value. Lately, we are seeing renewed interest from both Alberta and Ontario.

Most owners do not want to be sellers. The buyers arriving to view are seeking to drop urban for rural. There is always some increase of listings in summer/early fall, but not in significant numbers. As soon as one categorizes by price and type, one can see that the inventory continues to be very low. Buyers do not have a lot of choice in their preferred categories.

The push for rural over urban is one buyer trend and another is the desire for good hard asset investment. Buyers are concerned about currency issues and see ownership in a unique area as a preservation of capital decision.

The Gulf Islands have become a late summer/fall market, with prices generally higher than nearby Vancouver Island due to limited inventory.

Islands Trust and Housing

The Islands Trust, established in 1974, has capped growth on the Islands with strict density controls. This has led to consistently low inventory, regardless of market trends. The ongoing housing crisis across Canada is particularly pronounced in the Gulf Islands due to these restrictions.

Looking Ahead

So, we have arrived at the beginning of the last half of the year. Several years ago, the Gulf Islands became a late summer/fall market. It is a gift to be able to own and enjoy a Gulf Islands/Salt Spring Island lifestyle. Prices have always been higher than on nearby Vancouver Island, due to lack of growth inventory. The Islands are not really first time buyer territory. New ownership models may become a viable way to be a part of living on a Gulf Island…to own jointly with friends, or family. Single family ownership may evolve.

July… time to enjoy this season of warmth and largesse, to welcome the sense of ease it brings, to be inspired by sunsets and star watching opportunities.

A brief season. Already the days are becoming shorter. July… catch it! Enjoy.

Salt Spring Island, November 2023, Market Analysis

November, 2023.

Feathered with Golden Leaves

November signals mid-Fall…forested hills feathered with golden leaves from Maples and Alders…more rainy days, and bursts of sun between storm tracks. Daylight Saving Time ends, and this adds to darker late afternoons. Some call it the cosy season and that image of a slower pace welcomes this softer season to Salt Spring and the Gulf Islands.

The 2023 pattern of the real estate market remains in place: very low inventory, in all property types and price ranges, and general stability in sale prices. Lack of choice for buyers remains an issue.

The Gulf Islands & The Islands Trust

Governments at all levels (federal, provincial, municipal) are struggling with the lack of housing inventory. The Gulf Islands, unincorporated areas (except for Bowen), are under the Islands Trust form of governance (a provincial government body put in place in 1974, with a mandate of “to preserve and protect” the Gulf Islands for the benefit of all B.C. residents). Strict zoning/bylaws prohibit growth. Two elected trustees per Island do not have the power to change the Trust mandate…the provincial government would have to do that.

Inventory & Immigration

Lack of housing of all types is an issue in all communities and the Gulf Islands are not immune. Lack of supply keeps pricing higher. Most owners do not want to be sellers, as world events continue to cause major insecurities…a search for personal safety and for capital protection are two threads behind current buyer searches…that flight from urban to rural continues. Social unrest is evident. Strong immigration to Canada, coupled with lack of housing product, continues.

A Fall Market?

So…November. A holding pattern in local real estate, with low inventory and continuing buyer interest. For several years, the main buyer profile has been from Vancouver/Lower Mainland. Outcomes in Vancouver do trickle down to the Gulf Islands. A Fall Market has also been a characteristic of Gulf Islands sales, for many years.

November offers: ArtSpring theatre events, craft fair at WinterCraft, farmgate
stands, receptions at galleries, folk club headliners, live music venues, easy access to hiking/walking trails, still lots to do and to enjoy.

The softer season…yes. Enjoy.

Salt Spring Island, January 2023, Market Analysis

Salt Spring Island

Resolutions

January…it starts with resolutions.

There’s something about that blank palette at this very beginning of the month, in this introduction to a new year. We want to shape ourselves up.

A new year invites change. Change offers inspiration and also brings uncertainty. A mixed bag. The beginning of January is also full of forecasts for the new year…investment suggestions are at the forefront. The key question: how to be safe?

And what about specific real estate forecasts?

For Salt Spring and the Southern Gulf Islands, it always seems that the last two months of the preceding year are similar to the first two months of the new year.

Rise of Interest Rates

Looking at late Fall, 2022, then, we noted that the listing inventory continued to be very low. Properties below a million tended to be strata options or small homes/cottages (most needing renovation or rebuild work). There were quite a few residential listings between one and two million. Sales were mainly below the million mark. A very few sales took place between 2 and 3 million. That “middle” person price category of one plus million seemed to have softened by late 2022. Was this a result of rising interest rates?
Salt Spring Island

Arriving at the beginning of the new year, we note continuing low inventory. Prices have seen downward pressure since late Fall, and this may continue in early 2023. Price reductions do not always trigger viewings or offers. If a buyer is reluctant to act, they will tread water, seeking some market clarity. Most buyers continue to be from Vancouver and the desire to drop urban and seek rural remains a propeller of action.

It’s a good idea to attend investment seminars, whether in person or by webinars/podcasts. No one really has a definitive blueprint in this time of shift, but it’s good to let information pass through us…something that speaks to us will jump out. Be listening.

I found it interesting that some major National real estate brands were surprised that very little inventory came onstream in late 2022. They had thought the interest rate rises would have led to a spill-out of listings. However, if they can, it appears that most owners are choosing not to be sellers.

Some Certainties Lie Ahead

The Canadian government is seeking 1.5 million immigrants by 2025 (that’s 500,000 new arrivals each year, starting in 2023). At the same time, the federal government is banning foreign purchases for two years…starting January 1. Mixed messaging?
Salt Spring Island

As long as supply is low, it seems to promise price stability in real estate markets. CMHC (Canadian Mortgage & Housing) noted in 2022 that 22 million dwellings would need to be in place in Canada by 2030, or the lack of housing problem would not be addressed. Hmmm….. Add in that real estate keeps pace with inflation, and may protect from currency issues, and it seems that stability in real estate, especially in unique and beautiful places, may continue.

Until March, Predictions can be in vain

The very beginning of January is too early to make any significant projections about local real estate markets. Impacts of government taxation measures, interest rate rises, lack of supply, concerns about impending recession, continuing inflationary pressures, questions about currencies…one cannot ignore these global concerns. Locally, it always takes until March Break in the Gulf Islands to see the possible tone of this new calendar year. Continuing low inventory will be key.

Meantime: it’s the beginning of January. Time to enjoy the softer season on the Gulf Islands. There are always things to see and do…and every day is that little bit lighter and longer. Meteorological Spring begins on March 1st…a hop, skip, and a jump from January 1st.

Salt Spring

So, time to hike and walk the trail systems, to do some early spring cleaning, to sort files and spiff up the office, to keep up on projections, to meander the art galleries (to inspire one’s soul), to do lunch at our great restaurants and ponder the views (important to support local), to take 5 as the great Brubeck played…and to simply be. A fallow field moment is always restorative. A time out.

It’s January. Enjoy!

Salt Spring Island, June 2022, Market Analysis

Salt Spring Real Estate Market, June 2022

Almost everyone agrees that the entire Pacific Northwest Coast (this includes Salt Spring and the Gulf Islands) is approximately six weeks behind the normal Spring weather pattern. A typical La Niña weather outcome. So…June will be May. Some forecasters say we may not see “real summer” until mid-July

Global Events & Salt Spring Island Real Estate

Meantime, the global concerns continue to roll along: wars and rumours of wars, stock market wild fluctuations, continuing pandemic concerns, supply chain disruptions, immigration pressures due to population dislocations, inflation, and the ever evolving tech changes that make some business models redundant while others become breakthrough patterns leading to the future. Well, that pretty well sums up this societal rewrite that is underway. That means individual lifestyle changes, too. Change is never easy…yet opportunity does live in change.

The lengthy covid shut-downs, with many events and businesses closed down for almost two years, did create anxiety, worry, and fear. In keeping lifestyles tamped down, out of fear, and so causing the demise of many livelihoods, quick trigger responses were also created…anger under the surface. Recovery after traumatic experiences takes time. As we hopefully continue to segue out of a closure mind-set, it’s important to be patient. It is easier to close down than to re-open. Essential to remember that we all recover from significant change differently…it is never one size fits all.

And what about real estate markets? The rush from urban to rural, brought on by the covid closures of 2020, and encouraged by the authentic ability to work from home, are still the main drivers to action in the secondary home markets.

In the main, the buyer profile on the Gulf Islands and on Vancouver Island is a Vancouver purchaser. The secondary home/recreational areas in B.C. depend on a busy Vancouver sales scenario. Pauses in that major city market create pauses in the rural outcomes. Low inventory and buyer interest still remain in place, at this time.

Residential Listings

At this very beginning of June, there are approximately 63 residential listings on Salt Spring Island, not separating out waterfronts, view, farms

  • Sixteen of these are listed between 239,000 and 995,000
  • Twenty-six of these are listed between 1,125,000 and 1,998,.000
  • Nine residential listings are between 2,100,000 and 2,890,000
  • Four are listed between 3,333,000 and 3,995,000
  • Two are listed between 4,395,000 and 4,595,000
  • Two are listed between 5,790,000 and 5,990,000
  • One is listed at 6,950,000
  • One is asking 11,975,000
  • Two are listed at 14,000,000

There are approximately 24 land listings on Salt Spring Island, at this very first of the month, not separating out waterfronts, view, farms, lots or acreages…simply undeveloped land.

  • Nineteen of these are listed between 259,000 and 998,000
  • Three are listed between 1,038,000 and 1,495,000
  • One is listed at 2,995,000
  • One is listed at 5,400,000 (a farm, three titles, 17+ acres)

Inventory Remains Low on Salt Spring Island

Inventory remains very low. There are now some price reductions on the way to a sale, unlike the consistent bidding wars seen in mid-2021, and often there are further reductions at the point of a sale. The key seems to be about the amount of remedial work that may be needed by a property listing. A step-in ready home may sell at list price…there may be more than one offer and thus sell over-ask…but this is less often than in 2021.

Salt Spring Island and the Real Estate Services Act

The frenzy of sales action occurred between February and September 2021, and buyers (perhaps out of fatigue) are more measured in 2022. In response to Vancouver’s hot market in 2021, the provincial government is bringing in further significant changes to the Real Estate Services Act, throughout B.C. These changes may be in place by summer. One such would stop blind bidding and another would enact a three day cooling off period for a buyer, after an accepted offer. Stay tuned for more definitive information on these important changes.

Was this past February the “top” in buyer activity? Perhaps for the short-term moment…it is about supply, though, and the serious lack of housing supply may continue to uphold the sellers market scenario for some substantial time yet. Low supply and the strong desire to be safe…which implies a seeking of a rural/apart lifestyle…continue to propel the Gulf Islands markets. In inflationary times, real estate is also often viewed as a hard asset that keeps pace.

Sales on Salt Spring Island

At this very beginning of June, there have been approximately 80 sales to date on Salt Spring

  • Forty-six of these have sold between 100,000 and 998,000
  • Twenty-nine of these have sold between 1,038,000 and 1,995,000
  • There were four sales between 2,000,000 and 2,559,000
  • There were two sales between 3,200,000 and 3,725,000

Meantime, whether it’s a continuing late Spring as June unfolds or a quick segue into summer-summer, the natural beauty experienced at this time of year is an inspiration. In our always daily busyness, it’s important to pay attention to this lush beauty displaying around us. Salt Spring and the Southern Gulf Islands are in the heart of some of the best protected boating waters in the world (a kayakers dream) and are located mid-way between Vancouver, Victoria, and Seattle. Easy to get to, and yet wonderfully apart.

Always Opportunity on Salt Spring

There is always opportunity if you are seeking to buy or to sell a real estate holding. In these erratic times, on either side of the sales equation, creative thinking can carry the day. The Islands Trust, a provincial government body created in 1974, to preserve and protect the Gulf Islands, capped growth via strict zoning/bylaws. This ensures low inventory, regardless of market trend in play. More information on this non-municipal form of governance?

March 2022, Salt Spring Island Market Analysis

The Seasonal Shift on Salt Spring Island

March brings meteorological Spring (early) and calendar Spring (later…the 20th signals the change of season) and this year also welcomes a later local March Break. The days are visibly longer, gardens and orchards show us the seasonal shift, and whispers of real Spring/almost Summer are everywhere.

It is a time to shake ourselves awake from winter’s cocoon message, and allow the season’s ease to invite us to also flower forward.

Salt Spring Island Animals

Yes, clean those windows, gift on things no longer needed, sort out the office (real or at home), and switch up the menus from soups to salads. You know the drill…time to welcome Spring with fresh thoughts and tidy spaces and new possibilities.

What about the real estate market at this very beginning of March? The buyer interest in real estate in secondary home/recreational/rural regions remains very high. IF owners become sellers, it is possible to achieve the asking price and perhaps even be in an “over ask” bidding war outcome.

Is Buyer Interest Still High? Depends.

That said, there have been recent sales that saw price reductions at the point of the sale. Does this mean a mixed market is evolving? Or simply that existing inventory requires serious renovations and the buyers are noting and making offers based on this necessary upgrade perception?

I always think the tone of a year for real estate sales in secondary home markets takes till March Break/Easter to be visible. The first two months of a year seem to carry on the last two months of the previous year.

Salt Spring Island

What are some Signals of Market Conditions on Salt Spring Island?

There are always signals, though, that remind us that nothing ever stays the same, no matter if up or down conditions are in play. The key to everything right now is the continuing lack of inventory, just when buyers are plentiful. If this dynamic of low product and high demand continues, we will see price escalation in any infrequent new listings.

What are buyers hoping to find? Some are looking for acreage, ability to have a garden, maybe some animals (chickens? sheep? goats?). Some are seeking waterfront and, if boaters, a dock. Some just want a view (we are an island, and they want to see that ocean). Others just hope to find sunny privacy, with a sense of calm. They all want internet connectivity. In most cases, it’s a lifestyle rewrite…whether coming with children or couples seeking softer retirement opportunities.

What about those few sellers? Perhaps it’s downsizing or moving closer to children/grandchildren elsewhere, or perhaps they might even reconsider a return to urban if retiring from an earlier retirement island dream. If a purely recreational/cottage property, maybe it’s no longer used by the family. The key to letting go? The feeling that covid is erasing and it might now be safe to return to busier and more crowded environments.

Salt Spring Island Market Statistics, March 2022

At the moment, buyers hugely outweigh sellers, and that creates the “over ask” situations.

Residential

  • 39 residential listings. They are listed between 129,900 and 14,000,000
  • 13 are below one million, 10 are between one and two million
  • 5 are between two and three million
  • 4 are between three and four million
  • 1 is between four and five million
  • 3 are between six and seven million
  • 1 is at 11+ million and
  • 2 are at 14,000,000

(Two of them are mobiles in an adult park where one does not own the pad. Four of them are completion units in a townhome development and not yet built).

Land

  • 19 land listings
  • 12 are below one million
  • 5 are between one and two million
  • 1 is between 2 and 3 million
  • 1 is at 4+ million (a 16 acre working farm parcel).

Sales

In a more balanced market, there can be a total of 280 listings (including both residential and land options). Right now, we have a total of 58 listings.

There have been approximately

  • 27 sales to date
  • 17 sales below one million and
  • approximately 10 sales between one and two million.

(Note: I update market conditions throughout the month via my regular blog entries).

The short supply of listings (and the continuing strong buyer demand) is the scenario in all communities right now. It is another reason why owners in our area are reluctant to list…they can’t find an option in the region they might move to, and do not want to find themselves “houseless”.

Local rules & Regulations to think about

The three levels of government (federal, provincial, municipal) need to rethink their permit process/regulations and also consider helping developers create purpose-built rental and affordable housing opportunities. Supply is always the key to markets. Taxation of existing does not open up healthy buyer or rental outcomes.

On Salt Spring and the Southern Gulf Islands, which are not municipalities, and which are under the governance of the provincial government body known as the Islands Trust, a reinterpretation of some zonings may be needed. Costs of housing and lack of supply are top of mind right across Canada. Salt Spring and the Gulf Islands are not immune to these pressures.

Hmmm….to protect and preserve the Gulf Islands beauty and rural lifestyle, while encouraging young families to come and so to service that lifestyle, it will require thoughtful outcomes from the people already here. On Salt Spring? Bring your ideas to some of the groups and committees working to keep the Islands their beautiful and thoughtful selves, while also creating present and future opportunities.