Tag Archives: opportunity

April 2013, Market Analysis

Spring! Blossom Festival begins the dance of Salt Spring’s season.

We who live here are lucky to celebrate a lifestyle in the midst of beauty. Our wonderful weather “season” is from now until the Canadian Thanksgiving Weekend in early October…this is a treasured location.

Is the government mandated Islands Trust control of growth the reason for the preservation of the environmental beauties of the Gulf Islands? I think so.

The Trust’s mandate was to preserve and protect, for the benefit of all B.C. residents, the park-like allure of these islands, and it was put in place in 1974.

I think most residents & visitors would agree that this was a worthy goal, and that zoning restrictions were there to safe-guard the beauty.

When, though, does a loose body of regulations solidify into intransigence?

Isn’t the point of elected representatives to interpret a regulatory framework, for the good of the overall community? In that interpretive role, isn’t it essential to allow for individual responses without being afraid of the dreaded word precedent? Did the Trust forget the people?

A community’s self-sufficiency is based on the ability of its population to maintain itself, to foster and encourage sustainable growth, to respond to changing times for the benefit of the entire community. Entropy is the result of an unchanging response. Entropy leads to the death of an organism.

Salt Spring has been blessed in past years to be what I call a stand-alone community. One did not have to leave the island for services/amenities unless one wished to…the island was not a bedroom community of towns on nearby Vancouver Island. Can we say this is still the case?

In recent years, did the elected trustees overstep their mandate and stray into lifestyle decisions of the residents? Businesses that gave work to local residents have closed and moved off-island. More may be considering this.

The big box stores in Duncan are only a 20 minute ferry trip away: Home Depot, Walmart, Rona, Staples, London Drugs, plus the satellites that go along with plaza life (Starbucks, Tim Hortons, KFC, et al).

The Chamber of Commerce also has a mandate: to support local/community businesses and to create an atmosphere of opportunity for them. It is a volunteer body.

Salt Spring, as part of the Islands Trust governance model, is not a municipality. There are two elected trustees per Gulf Island. There is also a CRD director…CRD stands for Capital Regional District. This is also an elected position. As an unincorporated area, Salt Spring is under Victoria’s CRD re building permits, septic installations, etc.

One can see, though, as population slowly grew, since 1974, that there was a void there. The Trust is about land use bylaws. The CRD is about granting septic and building permits, so that construction is to current code requirements. There is no local elected mayor/council to aid the community’s progress.

What about an overall plan to ensure that residents lifestyles are also encouraged and preserved?

There is no funding from the provincial government to the local Chamber, as the Island is not a municipality. Thus, Chamber activities to benefit local businesses are all volunteer driven…with monetary support for tourism related events raised from the same local businesses.

The economic meltdowns between late 2008 and late 2012 caused tourism to halt in all secondary home/discretionary areas. On Salt Spring, tourism in 2010 & 2011 was apparently down by 40%. This affected accomodations, restaurants, studios, galleries, real estate…which in turn affected lawyers, contractors, architects, etc. It’s a wheel that rolls or else falters and collapses.

There is, at the moment, a sense that no one has been looking after the preservation of the Island’s lifestyle…no one helping the residents.

When I arrived in 1989, it seemed that “everyone” was here: affluent, old hippies, artists, farmers, retirees, young families, teachers, nurses, ferry employees, retail owners, summer people, spec builders, etc. Just the normal mix in any small rural community.

So…what happened?

Is it just the law of unintended consequences at work? Is it that those initial regulations to address uncontrolled growth have spawned into more regulations, narrowing interpretations of original bylaws, simply to fill a void?

The community did seem, in the 80s and early 90s, to work together…it still comes together to help when someone is afflicted with an accident or loss by outside circumstances. There now, though, also seems to be a very divisive attitude in evidence…fixed positions…no conversation of negotiation.

I sense that Salt Spring is well on its way to being a safe haven for an affluent buyer. It may be that those who service such an area will be coming from off island. The Trust’s point in 1974 was to preserve the park. This was accomplished.

A decision to control growth in a beautiful area does have the effect of making it a place one has to be able to afford. The Trust created, on all the Gulf Islands, an eventual outcome of being expensive places to live. The old adage of supply and demand in play.

It is what it is.

The Trust could have created thoughtful affordable housing zonings, industrial land groupings, & thus have preserved small family businesses, that hire locals, that support other local businesses. They did not.

Currently, there is a governance study underway on Salt Spring. There will be an eventual referendum to decide whether or not to have a Gulf Islands Municipality. This is the second such study/referendum process.

If a yes vote? The Trust would remain, with two elected trustees, and the bylaws in place. The CRD role would be taken over by an elected council, on Salt Spring, and so there would be local people in place to look after lifestyle options for the residents. The encroachment of the Trust into this realm, to fill a void, would end. The Trust, its elected local trustees, and its land use controls would remain.

Very recently, the CRD has struck a committee known as the EDC (Economic Development Committee). This committee has pulled people from local groups such as: accomodations, tourism, chamber volunteer groups…is it a think tank? Is it working to fill that local presence void, in case the governance study outcome is a nay vote? Are your concerns being met? Ask questions!

Is incorporation a good idea for Salt Spring? Attend the meetings, listen with an open mind. It’s an important issue with a serious outcome, on either side of the question.

My hope is that Salt Spring Island will remain that vibrant stand-alone community structure, with opportunity for all population segments. How best to ensure this?

Be a part of the decision making…it’s your island, after all. Be informed.

Tourism engenders real estate outcomes and thus ensuing good business outcomes for all other enterprises. Another reason to support the Chamber of Commerce.

The real estate market on Salt Spring Island, the Gulf Islands, and on Vancouver Island is still slow in sales. There is an increase in interest…inquiries are stronger…there is no marked trend, yet. In 2012, most sales were in entry level residential. In the final months of the year, some upper tier priced residential options found their buyer…at reduced price points from list pricings. Undeveloped land and commercial options remained “flat” throughout 2010, 2011, and 2012.

It may be that 2013 will be a year of authentic recovery in real estate in our secondary home/discretionary area. It may take until July to see this build in. The main sales now take place, in our seasonal marketplace, between mid-July and November. With the impact of the Internet, it’s important to be listed and “present”…otherwise, how will the searcher discover a specific property? Perhaps by early May, the trend-line for 2013 will be sufficiently in place to see a pattern.

The driver to action this year may be the seeking of a safe haven. Preservation of capital and the ability to be self-sustaining are powerful motivators to action. The cash on the sidelines may be flowing back into secondary home markets, and globally so. The issues in Cyprus, towards the end of March, may have hastened this shift out of cash, held in savings, in financial institutions.

Many insecurities abound, globally, and the Gulf Islands are not exempt.

What can we appreciate? A micro-climate that enjoys a year round opportunity, farms and the 10K diet are alive & well. The best protected boating waters in the world, at our doorstep. Ecological beauties to enjoy. Creative & thoughtful people to bring forward solutions to 21st Century issues. Lucky us, we who now call this region “home”.

May I help you to discover your special property on Salt Spring Island, on the Gulf Islands, and on Vancouver Island? Your best interests are my motivation. Please call…look forward to meeting you, and to helping you become an Islander, too!

January 2013, Market Analysis, Salt Spring

Market’s Promising Show of Continuing Strength

2013 is promising to show continuing strength in hard asset investment choices, & of course real estate is considered the premier opportunity for same.

Salt Spring Island Real Estate

2013, Salt Spring Island Real Estate

In 2012, on Salt Spring Island & in most Vancouver Island secondary home communities, the entry level residential category showed the most favour. 3 bed/2 bath options, in good order, found an investor-buyer…getting out of the banks/stock market & seeking that rental passive-income stream may have been the incentive to sales volume.

Towards the close of 2012, oceanfront residential below 1.9 began to find favour.

Significant Price Reductions at close of 2012

In most cases, there had been significant price reductions over substantial timelines…both realtors & real estate companies and concerned sellers all seeking that elusive bottom.

At the point of an offer, there was usually a further price reduction delivered at that time. The buyer, especially in secondary home/discretionary regions is always in control of outcomes. No one has to buy a second or recreational home…no one has to retire at any particular moment…everything is by choice.

While it remains (for the moment) without activity over 2 million, in the residential category, and still without action in undeveloped land choices, & in cottage/retreat opportunities, and without interest in commercial/business options, it’s clear that 2012 ushered in consistency in that 3 bed/2 bath family residential opportunity, & in both primary residence & in secondary home markets…this will strengthen & grow in 2013.

Sales Volume in 2012

Sales volume in 2012 was up dramatically, then, up to a certain price point, and only in residential. There was no price stability.

By the summer season in 2013, all property segments should see the activity so far only enjoyed by residential offerings. Thinning inventory brings price stability, & in some cases creates price escalation.

The uptick is underway.

It seems that the patterns of the last two months of a year are mirrored in the first two months of the new year…especially so in a secondary home/discretionary region. It takes time in a discretionary marketplace to catch the trends flavour of a year.

In our recreational regions there is a seasonality to physicality/viewings…March Break to Canadian Thanksgiving in October, perhaps?

Search Engines Never Sleep

However, the eye of the search engine never sleeps…essential to be visible at all times. Essential to be discovered. That’s what brings the physicality. There is no time in an Internet search. It is always. If you’re for sale, be visible…it’s no longer about waiting for Spring, & better weather. Somewhere, someone is searching.

1% of a buyer discovery comes off print. In a city 7% off signage. On a Gulf Island? Maybe back to that 1%. The buyer profile is not local in a discretionary area. That means the bulk of buyers in such regions come off an Internet search.

Local print media does not bring them to the island & neither does local signage.

While important to be there, the mls system no longer delivers buyers the way it once did…globally, there is no mls system. It’s a North American item. Buyers from Asia & Europe & U.K. are not seeking information off an mls system.

Franchise “big box” companies no longer deliver referral business as was the case in the pre-Internet era.

Hmmm…everything & nothing are both important in the hunt for the elusive buyer. What do I mean by this? Call me…let’s discuss the profound changes in marketing in today’s consumer driven & post-internet real estate industry. What will work for you? Let’s talk!

In change lies opportunity.

The economic downturn was in play by early 2007. The collapses of late 2008 were just the visible outcomes. Now, the uptick is underway, and as usual the mainstream pack has missed the signals…too much rear view mirror gazing & not enough looking down the highway?

These are just the opening days of this New Year…much to solidify in the coming weeks. By late February/early March, the tone of this calendar year will be clearer, in our secondary home marketplace.

Is the buyers market over? What’s next? Contact me, for some thoughts on this and also on how to create value for you, in a real estate holding.

October 2012, Salt Spring Market Analysis

October 2012, Salt Spring Market Analysis

Here we are…half way through our Fall Market. The Fall Market encompasses late August to late November, in our region.

Traditionally, around 60% of transactions used to take place between late August and late November.

During the past 3 to 4 years, however, nothing has been “traditional”.

The economic meltdowns of late 2008 unleashed a real estate collapse in the U.S. which, within a year, had afflicted all regions, globally.

Secondary home/discretionary regions were the most sorely afflicted…no one has to buy a second or third home, or retire in any particular timeframe, or buy a recreational/retreat property…it’s all by choice. Globally, secondary home markets saw little to no action, between 2009 & late 2011…appraisers noted that prices reduced around 35%, in our island region, between mid-2007 & late 2011.

At the same time, the local Chamber’s gathering of tourist information noted that tourism on the island was down by around 40%, in past two years (2010 & 2011).

Tourism

Since tourism is the usual first entry pointer to the islands, it’s easy to understand that a real estate purchase is usually generated by a tourist visitor falling in love with the area and then deciding to buy a property to enjoy.

No visitor…so no follow-up real estate buy…& then no hiring of an architect or designer, no work for a contractor, an electrician, a plumber, an excavator to create a driveway/prep a site, a back hoe to prep for a septic system or a landscape plan…then there are the painters, interior designers, furnishing providers, appliance providers, flooring installers…etc. etc. etc.

What about restaurants, galleries, banks, insurance agencies, gas stations, car maintenance, schools, grocery stores, accomodation providers, clothing outlets…basically, a community’s lifestyle! All were affected, in the end, by the faltering of tourism between 2009 & 2011, and thus the corresponding lack of sales in real estate offerings.

Realtors truly do start the train of a community’s business health!

2012 has seen a resurgence in sales volume in the entry level residential category, with some few sales in upper tier priced properties also lately beginning to sell.

In spite of dramatic price reductions en route, most sales still see a further reduction at the point of the offer. The buyer, at this moment in time, is still in control of the sales process. As inventory thins, prices will solidify…even multiple offers will be possible.

Markets are not static

Markets are not static items…they flow between the extremes of a sellers and a buyers market. We may be going into year 8 of an 8 to 10 year cycle, which promises stronger sales & more stable pricing…the downturn of late 2008 to early 2012 should have erased, perhaps by this time next year. No crystal balls, so only best guesstimates in play!

Secondary home markets, unlike city/primary residence areas, are driven by buyer activity. Buyers are back this year, even if it’s mainly only been active in the entry level residential segment. Good news, indeed. Sales in upper tier residential options are beginning to emerge. To date, undeveloped land sales remain inactive. No interest in commercial options yet, either.

The media is reporting downturns in real estate sales/prices in both Victoria and in Vancouver. These are primary residence/city markets. The pattern in the Gulf Islands/on Vancouver Island is a secondary home rhythm. Nevertheless, no area or market trend is untouched by another…an outcome of the Internet is the blurring of such divisions.

Uncertainty remains, and this may continue to impede strong action in all secondary home areas…purchases there, remember, are by choice.

Worry about societal outcomes, though, can also encourage action…safe haven investing is a real thing. That may result in much stronger sales.

Beginning of October

So, we arrive at the beginning of October with mixed messages. Price reductions continue to flow in from all local realty companies, in an effort to jumpstart action. Sellers of upper tier priced properties, many needing updating, who have been listed for 3+ years, take very low offers when they are presented, & yet step-in ready, almost new homes, up to 2 million, find buyers, & often sell close to their list price. Undeveloped land remains quiet.

So…sounds like everything is on the table, & price points of what is selling continue to slowly increase. A market slowly upticking? I think so. It appears that 2013 may be the year of renewal in real estate markets.

Meantime, this still evident buyers market, plus low interest rates, do encourage a thoughtful purchaser to consider buying a Gulf Islands/Salt Spring Island property opportunity “now”.

Soft temperate micro-climate, scenic beauty, rich cultural opportunities, good schools, easy access to major centres, hospital & health services on Salt Spring…it’s a plum!

How may I help you to buy your special Salt Spring Island or Gulf Islands property?

August 2012, Market Analysis

Eurozone continues to implode. Or does it? Up to the brink & then words from the European Central Bank that they will do whatever it takes, to preserve the euro economic union. Does that mean printing more money? Is it a bid to inflate out of debt?

U.S. election insecurity continues. Until the votes are counted and the winner declared, we will hear & see a battle between two totally opposite mindsets…the individual vs the collective voice.

Secondary home/discretionary regions remain sporadic in sales volume…such purchases are by choice. No one “has to” buy a second home or retreat property, no matter how engaging the area might be. An ocean experience? A mountain getaway? What about a lake enclave? A desert or a forest retreat? And on which continent? That’s the interesting thing about that great & hungry search facility…it makes some place in competition with every place. We are McLuhan’s “global village”.

Nothing can be relied on that once seemed so secure. Remember the Lewis Carroll sequel to Alice in Wonderland? Titled Alice Through The Looking-Glass, it noted that one had to run very fast just to stay still…if you stopped, then everything else, trees, animals, people, objects, just whizzed by. Hmmm…is that the description of our 21st Century experience?

Certainly, change is the mantra of the moment. In change, there is discovery. And opportunity. To make it all possible, the need for an editing function has never been so necessary. Undifferentiated data is not information. Interpretation could be the gift.

Locally, we are noting a significant sales volume uptick in residential properties below 900,000, with most action below 600,000. The one million and up category is beginning to see stronger inquiries. A slow recovery appears to be underway in the secondary home/discretionary marketplace, & globally so. Prices are not yet stable, and reductions continue to take place at the point of an offer. Our main sales window in our basically seasonless marketplace is mid-July to mid-October, so this is “it”, right now.

We may be in year 7 of a 7 to 10 year cycle, which implies improvement. The economic issues from 2008’s meltdown continue to have impact…nowhere is immune in our connected universe.

Meantime, back on the Island, the pause that renews awaits your pleasure. It’s always a good time to buy if it’s your time. You’ll know when that is.

The Island offers environmental protection. It offers all 21st Century necessities. It offers a yesteryear experience of community. It offers a thoughtful pause. It offers ease of access and the comfort of familiarity. It’s not perfect, but it’s pretty close! I call that the right kind of investment.

Marketing Real Estate in “Interesting Times”

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November 2010 | Gulf Islands Real Estate Market Analysis

Interesting times we live in!

Wasn’t that the Chinese Curse?

I think, though, that change offers opportunity…

Check out my radio show podcast and listen to my interview with “Carolina George.”

George, originally from Ontario, now lives in North Carolina, and is a major player in the digital post-internet world we now all inhabit.

As a hybrid being, with a foot in the 20th Century and another in the beginnings of the “real” 21st Century, I feel like my role might be as an interpreter between two beings: BG (Before Google) and AG (After Google).

A divide that is so profound that there is really no true meeting ground.

The historian Barbara Tuchman wrote a book, in the 1970s, bringing to life the world of the 14th Century. It might be prudent to revisit her book. Messages from the 14th to the 21st Century? Perhaps….

After all, Gutenberg‘s discovery at that time, and subsequent implementation of the printing press, erased centuries of agrarian top down culture and gave birth to the ascendance of “the common man” and the creation of that middle class power base that resulted in the Industrial Revolution.

Click here to download a PDF of analysis and here to read in its entirety.