March 2016, Market Analysis

Market Recovery

Yes…it’s true…the Salt Spring Island and Gulf Islands real estate markets are on the move!

The severe downturn that afflicted all secondary home/discretionary markets (and globally so), has finally erased in our particular coastal region.

The recovery here (after an eight year downturn) is authentic.

A recovery is never even-handed…some areas saw a serious uptick in 2015 (Sunshine Coast)…now it has arrived on Vancouver Island and the Gulf Islands.
Salt Spring Island
Again, some areas/islands have seen uptick sooner than some others, but it’s still early days.

I have always seen a link between a pleasing visitor experience and a real estate sale, in discretionary markets. The January article in the New York Times about their list of “the 52 best places to visit in 2016” will bring increased tourism to this region. Only two places in Canada were featured: Toronto and the Southern Gulf Islands.

The season in this Pacific Northwest Coast region is really March Break to (Canadian) Thanksgiving Weekend, in mid-October…with the busier months occurring between late May & late September.

It may take until May/June to have this dramatic improvement in real estate sales be seen “everywhere”, in this coastal environment, and to reach media reports. Late April/early May often start the busier tourism times.

Signs of an upward trending market?

  • – thinning inventory (means more buyers than listings).
  • – sale of raw land (to remain on budget, buyers will buy land and build a cottage).
  • – prices stabilizing (spread between list and sale prices narrowing…some small bidding wars).
  • – renewed interest in upper tier priced properties.

Along with renewed buyer desire to own a property on a Gulf Island or on Vancouver Island, there is the added allure of the low Canadian Dollar against the U.S. currency. There is also a strong desire on the part of buyers to be able to be self-sufficient…a societal “safe haven” seeking, perhaps?
salt-spring-island-35-Alex-Beattie
Fewer listings and more buyers. In the end, this leads to price escalation.

The Islands Trust form of governance on the Gulf Islands essentially capped growth (in 1974) via strict zoning/density controls re development. Limited inventory always, combined with a renewed desire to own recreational property, spells a coming sellers market.

When? Perhaps by late Summer, 2016? Hmmm…the signals are all in place. Meantime, there remain good deals and good properties to consider.

This may be the end of the transitional period between a sellers and a buyers market trend line.

No matter the trend in place, at any time, there are always opportunities.

For a buyer, the time available to consider a property, once viewed, may be shortening. As we see further thinning of available inventory for sale, it’s important to “act”, if one likes a property. Sales volume remains on the increase.

If you are looking for your special Salt Spring Island, Gulf Islands, Vancouver Island property, please call me. Your best interests are my motivation, always. Let’s work together and discover your Best Buy opportunity.

Feb 2016, Market Analysis

Welcoming in an Early Spring

February welcomes very early Spring on the great Pacific Northwest coast. Depending where one finds oneself, there are snowdrops, crocus, early rhododendrons, early flowering ornamental cherry trees, all whispering the promise of real Spring to come.

Salt Spring Island and the Gulf Islands are nestled in the rain shadow of the much larger Vancouver Island, and this positioning in the Salish Sea (the historic name for Georgia Strait) delivers a temperate micro-climate to the Gulf Islands.

Vineyards, olive groves, orchards, cideries, craft breweries, small sustainable farms…the arable opportunities on Salt Spring and the Gulf Islands are a part of their allure. Trees and succulents grow here that are also found in California.

Connect this temperate climate to a form of governance that controls growth & limits development (Islands Trust), & in a region that attracts a strong artistic base (Salt Spring is renowned as an artists community), and you have a very alluring place to visit…and to live. In the heart of some of the best protected boating waters in the world, the scenic beauty and serenity are further reasons to discover yourself here.

Market Trends

February also brings, for market trends, the beginning signature of this still New Year.

Real estate in secondary home/discretionary regions, & globally so, experienced a severe downturn between late 2008 & late 2014. No one has to buy a second home or a recreational choice, in disturbing economic times.

Salt Spring Island

For Salt Spring & the Gulf Islands, in Fall of 2014, a slow recovery began. This rhythm slowly and consistently continued throughout 2015. As inventory thinned out, prices began to stabilize and the spread between list and sale pricings began to narrow.

Let the Season Begin

Now, here we are, poised at the beginning of 2016’s trend-line, for our seasonal marketplace. For our discretionary area, it often takes until April to catch the real tone of the year.

In our authentic global village, no place is immune to global economic and societal pressures and outcomes. Salt Spring and the Gulf Islands are not protected from issues affecting both Canada and the international community.

Huge population shifts in Europe, continuing suppression of oil and commodity prices, a stock market with a richochet pattern, currency stresses world-wide, an argument between deflation and inflation that brings brief stale-mate, a tech based world that has almost erased all vestiges of late 20th Century models…and is now delivering societal outcomes post-tech (think Uber, Airbnb). Still no road-map for easy decisions and an erosion of capital. Hmmm….

Canada On Sale

Canada is on sale. Our dollar has reduced 30% against U.S. currency, for example. It may be tracking to a 40% spread. For a buyer from U.S., U.K., Europe, & China, our real estate is hugely affordable.

In difficult economic times, without a blueprint for action, investors often turn to unique real estate purchases as a way to preserve capital. Will that be the outcome in 2016? Will real estate purchases solidly return to rural and recreational regions? If so, locally we should see the very beginnings of this return to specialty real estate by March/April. Stay tuned.

Meantime, we need to take the image of this Chinese Lunar New Year (starts on February 8th) to heart: the Year of the Monkey. An image of playful activity? Apparently a time of exciting discoveries/inventions…but also a time of turbulence/revolutionary zeal. Hmmm…a time to be nimble, perhaps. Sounds like more change, in any case.

Every good story has a beginning/middle/end…this transition market, between a down & an up market trend, appears to be drawing to a close. It may take until May, in our specific Gulf Islands region, to see the uptrend fully in place. A seller’s market is noted as having lots of buyers & very little inventory. We appear to be on the way to this eventuality.

No matter the market trend in play, at any given moment, there is always opportunity. Whether selling or buying, I look forward to bringing my knowledge, experience, expertise to your benefit.

January 2016, Market Analysis

January 2016, Market Analysis – Salt Spring Island

Salt Spring Island

Salt Spring Island


A New Year…a new adventure.

2016 may turn out to be the authentic first post-meltdown year, for discretionary real estate sales.

Salt Spring Sales – Between 2008 & 2014

In the secondary home markets, between end of 2008 and end of 2014, there was scant activity. Although most sales in 2015 occurred under the label “entry level residential”, such sales volume may have doubled and listing inventory dramatically thinned. This is a marker of an authentic recovery. In the end, all property types/price points find their buyer.

Hard Asset Investing

It’s called hard asset investing, and is perhaps the antidote to years of quantitative easing. When currency uncertainties are a factor, ownership of a good real estate option is a solid route to safe haven investing.

This is an excellent opportunity for many to consider amplifying their property portfolio: to consider a recreational purchase as a means to grow their asset base. Undeveloped land opportunities may be the “best buy” venue.

Interest rates still remain at almost historic lows. Sellers might agree to hold a mortgage in order to facilitate a sale. Prices reduced over the past eight year downturn; recreational options are affordable. Vacation rentals can help to offset costs. And, there is the enjoyment aspect in this “always on” post-Internet world. A ferry to a retreat…hmmm…a recipe for a pleasing lifestyle?

BC Ferries

BC Ferries

A Time For Action

A cottage. A garden. A kayak at a dock. A deck to invite one to ponder a view. A beach to stroll. A mountain trail to hike. A decompression chamber? Plus an appreciation component that makes the enjoyment also a good investment.

Timing is all. January reminds us of the message of the double faced Roman god who left his name on this beginning month: one face looked back to past days, and one viewed forward. A quick glance back shows a market finally in recovery. A glimpse forward sees a moment in time that invites participation.

A new year, a new adventure…will you answer the call? Time for that recreational purchase? Time to turn that daydream into reality? Time for action.

December 2015, Market Analysis

December 2015

Around Salt Spring Island This Holiday Season

This month is a time of celebration, and Salt Spring offers many opportunities to enjoy this season: Wintercraft at Mahon Hall, Village Light-Up with Chili Cook-off and Shop Late & Social, the Beaver Point and Fulford Hall craft fairs, Glowtini contest & Shop Late & Social, Saturday Market opens for Christmas, Sunday Family Shopping Day, and Merry Monday in Fulford Village (thank you, Valdy). Plus, Santa arrives on a carol ship. It’s an authentic taste of a country village Christmas…enjoy!

December Snow - Salt Spring Island

Snow – Salt Spring Island

About Real Estate…

Real Estate sales in that entry level priced category, whether undeveloped land or residential options, have continued to drive our market outcomes. Some upper tier priced residential sales have strengthened, too, between August and now. Thinning inventory, renewed buyer interest in a secondary home/recreational/discretionary marketplace, a safe haven seeking aspect to this interest, a return to hard asset investment opportunities…it all spells a market recovery.

Markets are cyclic in nature…there are also beginnings/middles/ends in transition periods. I think the “end” is occurring right now. We may see a fast return to sellers conditions by Spring, 2016. The traditional market “window” on Salt Spring and the Gulf Islands is March Break to the Canadian Thanksgiving Weekend. It is never without activity, but the bulk of viewings do take place within this timeline. Sales take place at any time.

Sales volume appears to have doubled over last year, and the inventory up to a certain price range has also thinned dramatically. These are two items that underscore a move upward, in a market trend. Plus, undeveloped land sales are finally slowly starting, and that’s the third item one looks for, if seeking corroboration that the recovery is authentic.

In 2014, the sales pricing for a buyer seemed to hit a ceiling at around 550,000. This year, it’s around 750,000…again, a sign of a strong improving trend.

As of November 30th, there were 235 sales this year.

  • The first 14 (between 100,000 and 225,000) were undeveloped lots.
  • 26 residential options sold between 230,000 and 299,500.
  • 42 residential sales fell between 300,000 and 395,000.
  • 41 sold between 400,000 and 495,000.
  • 37 sold between 500,000 and 599,000.
  • 19 sold between 604,000 and 669,500.
  • 16 sold between 700,000 and 799,000.
  • 10 sold between 800,000 and 896,000.
  • 6 sold between 900,000 and 960,000.
  • 19 sold between 1,000,000 and 1,900,000.
  • one sold at 2,450,000.
  • one sold at 3,600,000.

Most of the sales over one million took place from July on.

When inventory starts to thin out, sales volume drops as the number of properties for sale is less…this is already happening in Victoria. This is when we see price stabilization and then increases.

I often think that the first two months of a year reflect the patterns of the last two months of the previous year. November/December have been busy. It appears that this rhythm will continue into January/February. It may take until March to truly see the tenor of the 2016 market.

There is always opportunity for a buyer at any point in time…there are properties available in all price ranges/types. More information on how the changing market trend can benefit you? Call me!

Whether selling or buying, your best interests are my motivation.

Wishing you a Merry Christmas this December and a very Happy New Year! Enjoy your special traditions.

November 2015, Market Analysis

November 2015

Fulford Harbour, Salt Spring Island

Fulford Harbour, Salt Spring Island


We are now sliding into the Fall-into-Winter moment.

There is often a perception that Salt Spring, the Gulf Islands, and Vancouver Island are seasonal markets…busier in late Spring and Summer…with less happening in the supposed “off season”. Not so.

It’s important to be presented to the marketplace at all times, in this post-Internet era. The Google search eye never sleeps. Someone, somewhere is searching.

In our secondary home/discretionary region, on this thin strip of the beautiful Pacific Northwest Coast, potential buyers now turn up, physically, between mid-summer and late fall…to view what had caught their attention earlier, on the net.

Many sales thus take place between August and end of the year. This catches many sellers off guard, if they have only a Spring/Summer mindset for a possible sale.

At this point, in a still busy sales time, we can point to continuing signs of an authentic market shift…in a strong upward direction:

  • Thinning inventory.
  • Rising price levels in the entry level residential priced category.
  • Sales of undeveloped land.
  • Stronger interest in higher end residential options…with more sales in this segment.
  • Buyer desire to buy a retirement or recreational or investment property.
  • Concerns over currencies making hard asset investments of interest.
  • Media reporting on all the above.

No matter the market trend in play at any time, there is always opportunity in a property purchase. Over time, a real estate investment is an important one. It is a wealth builder and a wealth preserver, although it is a “long tail” investment decision.

If you are considering a purchase of a Salt Spring Island, other Gulf Island, or Vancouver Island property, call me. My strong referral network will connect you to the best agents if your wish list lies in an area outside my circle of expertise. Benefit from my knowledge, of both inventory & of trends…let me help you to discover the right property for you.

The transition period between a buyers and a sellers market is rapidly closing, in our Gulf Islands area.

In the entry level priced residential properties (below $550,000, say?), we are already seeing sellers conditions. In undeveloped land sales, it’s still early days. Waterfront & superlative ocean view acreages always see earliest activity, in upper tier residential (over $900,000), and this pattern has just started (since August?)…waterfronts and equestrian friendly acreages are currently most in demand. The spread between list and sale price points is rapidly narrowing in all property types.

These are the key factors pointing to the close of the transition period: narrowing price spread, thinning inventory, sales volume increase.

Our coastal secondary home regions only began to see “soft” recovery in late 2014. Now, although still not even-handed, and many properties still not seeing “fast sales”, we are almost through the transition period…many people, locally, liken both our current real estate and our small business recovery to 2006/2007 patterns. Pre-economic collapse of 2008, then. All good news!

How may I help you to buy your special Salt Spring Island, Gulf Island, or Vancouver Island property? Call me! Look forward to working with you.