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March 2022, Salt Spring Island Market Analysis

The Seasonal Shift on Salt Spring Island

March brings meteorological Spring (early) and calendar Spring (later…the 20th signals the change of season) and this year also welcomes a later local March Break. The days are visibly longer, gardens and orchards show us the seasonal shift, and whispers of real Spring/almost Summer are everywhere.

It is a time to shake ourselves awake from winter’s cocoon message, and allow the season’s ease to invite us to also flower forward.

Salt Spring Island Animals

Yes, clean those windows, gift on things no longer needed, sort out the office (real or at home), and switch up the menus from soups to salads. You know the drill…time to welcome Spring with fresh thoughts and tidy spaces and new possibilities.

What about the real estate market at this very beginning of March? The buyer interest in real estate in secondary home/recreational/rural regions remains very high. IF owners become sellers, it is possible to achieve the asking price and perhaps even be in an “over ask” bidding war outcome.

Is Buyer Interest Still High? Depends.

That said, there have been recent sales that saw price reductions at the point of the sale. Does this mean a mixed market is evolving? Or simply that existing inventory requires serious renovations and the buyers are noting and making offers based on this necessary upgrade perception?

I always think the tone of a year for real estate sales in secondary home markets takes till March Break/Easter to be visible. The first two months of a year seem to carry on the last two months of the previous year.

Salt Spring Island

What are some Signals of Market Conditions on Salt Spring Island?

There are always signals, though, that remind us that nothing ever stays the same, no matter if up or down conditions are in play. The key to everything right now is the continuing lack of inventory, just when buyers are plentiful. If this dynamic of low product and high demand continues, we will see price escalation in any infrequent new listings.

What are buyers hoping to find? Some are looking for acreage, ability to have a garden, maybe some animals (chickens? sheep? goats?). Some are seeking waterfront and, if boaters, a dock. Some just want a view (we are an island, and they want to see that ocean). Others just hope to find sunny privacy, with a sense of calm. They all want internet connectivity. In most cases, it’s a lifestyle rewrite…whether coming with children or couples seeking softer retirement opportunities.

What about those few sellers? Perhaps it’s downsizing or moving closer to children/grandchildren elsewhere, or perhaps they might even reconsider a return to urban if retiring from an earlier retirement island dream. If a purely recreational/cottage property, maybe it’s no longer used by the family. The key to letting go? The feeling that covid is erasing and it might now be safe to return to busier and more crowded environments.

Salt Spring Island Market Statistics, March 2022

At the moment, buyers hugely outweigh sellers, and that creates the “over ask” situations.

Residential

  • 39 residential listings. They are listed between 129,900 and 14,000,000
  • 13 are below one million, 10 are between one and two million
  • 5 are between two and three million
  • 4 are between three and four million
  • 1 is between four and five million
  • 3 are between six and seven million
  • 1 is at 11+ million and
  • 2 are at 14,000,000

(Two of them are mobiles in an adult park where one does not own the pad. Four of them are completion units in a townhome development and not yet built).

Land

  • 19 land listings
  • 12 are below one million
  • 5 are between one and two million
  • 1 is between 2 and 3 million
  • 1 is at 4+ million (a 16 acre working farm parcel).

Sales

In a more balanced market, there can be a total of 280 listings (including both residential and land options). Right now, we have a total of 58 listings.

There have been approximately

  • 27 sales to date
  • 17 sales below one million and
  • approximately 10 sales between one and two million.

(Note: I update market conditions throughout the month via my regular blog entries).

The short supply of listings (and the continuing strong buyer demand) is the scenario in all communities right now. It is another reason why owners in our area are reluctant to list…they can’t find an option in the region they might move to, and do not want to find themselves “houseless”.

Local rules & Regulations to think about

The three levels of government (federal, provincial, municipal) need to rethink their permit process/regulations and also consider helping developers create purpose-built rental and affordable housing opportunities. Supply is always the key to markets. Taxation of existing does not open up healthy buyer or rental outcomes.

On Salt Spring and the Southern Gulf Islands, which are not municipalities, and which are under the governance of the provincial government body known as the Islands Trust, a reinterpretation of some zonings may be needed. Costs of housing and lack of supply are top of mind right across Canada. Salt Spring and the Gulf Islands are not immune to these pressures.

Hmmm….to protect and preserve the Gulf Islands beauty and rural lifestyle, while encouraging young families to come and so to service that lifestyle, it will require thoughtful outcomes from the people already here. On Salt Spring? Bring your ideas to some of the groups and committees working to keep the Islands their beautiful and thoughtful selves, while also creating present and future opportunities.

February 2022, Salt Spring Island Market Analysis

February 2022, Salt Spring Island Market Analysis

Salt Spring Island

Salt Spring Island

February brings with it the whispered promise of Spring. It also offers Family Day Holiday Weekend and Valentine’s Day.

February can also be a month that offers financial planning seminars. What used to be in-person lectures and trade fairs have become zoom presentations and podcasts.

Were the serendipitous encounters among in-person attendees often more meaningful than the prepared presentations? Hmmm…. Have we now become a culture of being lectured to? No more idea-sharing with savvy strangers at the live events?

It’s early days to decide on the tone of the 2022 real estate market. In the secondary home/rural regions, such as Salt Spring and the Gulf Islands, there has been a traditional seasonality of listings and sales.

Although buyers can turn up throughout the year (and they do), there is a pattern of consistent activity in such recreational areas between March Break (mid-March) and the Canadian Thanksgiving (mid-October). It will be interesting to see if a number of new listings will appear for that March “early Spring” market.

At this very beginning of February, the extraordinarily low inventory that has characterized secondary home real estate markets everywhere, between mid-2020 and late 2021, continues on Salt Spring and the Gulf Islands.

Buyer Interest Remains Strong

The few sales in January, 2022, may have had their beginnings in late 2021 and simply completed in January…perhaps not new business then. A few of those sales saw price reductions from list prices, and that was a difference from many full or “over ask” outcomes that occurred in early to mid 2021.

Buyer interest remains strong, most owners in rural areas still do not want to be sellers, and the flight from urban to rural remains the propeller to action.

The authentic ability to work from home means it’s possible to live in apart places. Choice is there for consumers. Many buyers on the Gulf Islands continue to be from Vancouver/Lower Mainland.

Salt Spring Island Market Statistics

Residential

  • 39 residential listings – 159,900 to 14,000,000 – Thirteen of these listings are below one million – two are in Brinkworthy (a 55+ modular home development and one does not own the pad) – five of them are not yet built (the final phase at Summerside townhomes)
  • Ten of the residential options are listed between one and two million
  • Eight are listed between 2 and 3 million
  • One is listed at 3,988,000 and one at 4,595,000.
  • Three are listed between 6 and 7 million.
  • One is listed at 11,975,000
  • Two are listed at 14,000,000

Land

  • 24 land listings.
  • 16 of these are below one million.
  • Six of them are between one and two million
  • One is listed at 2,995,000
  • One at 4,900,000

Sales

  • 10 sales to date
  • Seven of these were between 330,000 and 792,000
  • Three were between 1,500,000 and 1,784,000.

2022 may be a year of flux.

Globally Posturings & Uncertainty

Globally, there are anxious posturings: troop build-ups, supply line interruptions, stock market ricochets, inflation, pandemic changes to everyday life, interest rate potential increases, changes to city/town-scapes as populations work from home and shop online…the new world is evolving under our feet, it seems, and there is no solid road map yet, going forward.

Uncertainty may simply be the surround sound of our post-pandemic time.

IT/robotics remain interesting and tech advances are well underway. Immersive video may be the key to real estate sales from buyers not physically present to view. Stay tuned, as the quality and ease of the tech side continues to evolve. An exciting time to be present, and the speed of change makes it seem like 2015 is already the very distant past. Hmmm……

The Promise of Spring

February. Yes, the calendar says it’s still winter, but the great Pacific Northwest Coast often delivers the haphazard promise of Spring.

Catch those sunny clear days…check out the hiking/walking trails, plan your “real Spring” garden, enjoy the gift of lengthening days, give yourself a treat and do day trips to nearby Gulf Islands or Vancouver Island, walk the Fernwood Beach at low tide, enjoy sunsets from Vesuvius Beach, take yourself and a friend to one of our super restaurants and enjoy the inspiring views from their windows.

Lots to do and to enjoy on Salt Spring and the Gulf Islands at this hiatus time of year. The promise of “Discover Yourself Here” is true…check it out.

January 2022, Salt Spring Island Market Analysis

A New Year on Salt Spring Island, 2022

A new year. As we step into this very beginning of 2022, it’s good to remember the ancient Roman deity that gives January its name. Janus had two faces, one looking back and the other forward.

We do carry the end of the year just passed into the very early days of the new year, of course, but it’s essential to immediately face forward. The universe reminds us that there is only one direction…it’s called face forward and go for it.

Covid Restrictions still in place & Tech Solutions

The provincial and federal government restrictions to halt the covid outbreaks in 2020/2021 also forced everyone to actively be in the digital world. Zoom and its competitors were found at business meetings, churches, schools, family gatherings, banking, shopping…in all encounters…in other words, the digital experience replaced the in-person meet-up.

The outcome of the virus pandemic has been to familiarize the population with the screen reality. It’s been clunky, though. Perhaps the message of 2022 will be to create a more seamless meshing of digital and in-person realities? Techies: away you go…..

Pandemic Closures Ignites Secondary Home/Rural Regions

The pandemic closures of 2020 ignited the secondary home/rural regions real estate markets across Canada…all B.C. coastal communities experienced this flight from urban to rural. Sales in late 2020 began in the affordable price points. By early 2021, Salt Spring and the Gulf Islands began to experience bidding wars and “over ask” outcomes became the norm in that diminishing “affordable” residential category.

By March of 2021, sales of luxury residential properties began. Suddenly, that market experienced outcomes that matched pre-2008 prices.

As pleasing residential options disappeared, undeveloped land began to find buyers…starting in late spring/early summer. Is this continuing interest in land now also a form of land banking? A wish to keep pace with rising inflation?

The lack of inventory in rural areas can be attributed to the lack of owners wanting to be sellers. As things slowly but consistently sell, very little new comes onstream to replace those “solds”.

It appears that there is a major turning point/societal rewrite underway. A desire to live more simply, to be more self-sufficient, coupled with the ability to authentically work from home, all coalesced into this decision to “go rural”. Yes, there is a back to the land component.

As the pandemic continues to weave its way through the populations, globally, that seeking of an “apart” location also continues.

For some time, the buyer on Salt Spring and the Gulf Islands has been from Vancouver.

Meantime, at this very beginning of 2022, the real estate market on Salt Spring sees the following:

Residential

there are approximately …

  • 43 residential listings.
  • 13 of these listings are under one million.
  • 13 of these listings are between one and two million.
  • 8 are between two and three million.
  • One is between 3 and 4 million. T
  • wo are between 4 and 5 million.
  • Three are between 6 and 7 million.
  • One is between 11 and 12 million.
  • Two are listed at 14 million.

Land

there are approximately

  • 28 land listings.
  • 19 of these are between 200,000 and one million.
  • 7 are between one and two million.
  • One is between 2 and 3 million.
  • One is between 4 and 5 million.

Sales

there were approximately

  • 271 sales at the close of 2021. There were
  • 190 sales between 190,000 and one million. (In many cases, bidding wars took placein this category.)
  • 67 sales between one and two million.
  • 8 sales between two and three million.
  • 3 sales between 3 and 4 million.
  • 3 sales between 5 and 6 million.

It seems as if numbers of sales and sale price points may have returned to 2005/2006 activity levels.

Supply and demand create markets…when driven by strong buyer desire. We remain, at this very beginning of 2022, in a strong sellers market on Salt Spring and the Southern Gulf Islands. Projections call for continuing sellers market conditions.

Meantime, it’s January…a great time to make sure one is ready for the metaverse. The “new” is profound and there is a distinct divide between pre- and post-pandemic times…important, then, to run with the flow of change. Remember Thales, another savvy Ancient Greek: one never steps in the same water twice…it’s flowing on and always new.

Meantime, to all, best wishes for a very Happy and Prosperous New Year

December 2021, Salt Spring Island Market Analysis

December 2021, Salt Spring Island Real Estate Market

Rain and snow and then crisp days of brilliant sun, with mesmerizing ocean/islands/mountain viewscapes.

A time of seasonal lights, family traditions, special menus, craft fairs, markets, choral presentations…and a time of gifting to those who need it most.

Salt Spring and the Gulf Islands are offering the softer season delights to both locals and visitors. Take part! Support local.

December is also a time to look back at what has been and to look forward to what is emerging.

Strong Sales in 2021

There have been strong sales throughout 2021. In residential options, if listed below one million, there were several sales “over ask”. Only one property and several interested buyers…a recipe for bidding wars.

By Spring, higher end listings began to sell and also undeveloped land opportunities…as we edge to the end of the year, we have extremely low inventory in all property types and price points.

While the majority of sales are below 1.2 million, there are still many more sales above that mark, and that has not been seen since pre-2008 economic meltdowns. It seems that we have returned to a pattern not seen since 2004/05.

A societal rewrite

The flight from urban to rural is underway, and the authentic ability to work from home supports this. A societal rewrite appears to be happening. The outcomes of the changes that began with the first covid closures almost two years ago are not fully in place yet.

  • At this very beginning of December, there are approximately 55 residential listings, not separating out waterfront, view, townhome, farm, lot, acreage. The prices range from 159,900 to 14,000,000.
  • At this very beginning of December, there are approximately 28 land listings…not separating out waterfront, view, lot, acreage. Prices range from 259,000 to 4,900,000.
  • Together, that means approximately 83 listings are available for a buyer to consider. Usually we would see a total of 300+ listings.
  • At this very beginning of December, there have been approximately 265 sales to date, ranging between 199,000 and 5,850,000.
Salt Spring Island

Salt Spring Island

A desire to leave city congestion and seek a rural lifestyle continue to be the main propellers to action. The Gulf Islands offer a preserved environment, due to the Islands Trust form of governance (in place since 1974). Ask me about this important aspect.

The evolution of the internet so that it now fully supports the ability to work remotely is also a part of allowing the shift to smaller communities.

Owners in these areas do not want to be sellers, and that is also part of the reason for such low inventory. This is a true sellers market.

A Competitive Market

Buyers have to make their best efforts…they are in competition. They might need to consider renovation or building projects after purchase…buyers are not in the driver’s seat right now. Until there is more supply, this thin market will continue. It may take two years to see a further supply of housing come to market.

Concerns over inflation might also be a factor in land sales…real estate values keep pace with inflation. It is a strong hard asset. Land banking may be the reason for some land sales. Welcome your thoughts here.

There are always issues, of course. December, though, brings with it a season of light and joy.

Some loved Island events (such as Santa’s Carol Ship) were cancelled due to covid shut-downs, but many remain. Check the various holiday calendars for the Gulf Islands and enjoy the special events that are offered. Whether large or small celebrations, remember to enjoy the festive time. It is “the season”!

November 2021, Salt Spring Island Market Analysis

November 2021, Salt Spring Island Real Estate Market

Salt Spring Island, Fall

Salt Spring Island, Fall

November…and already real estate projections are into early 2022.

More than Meets the Eye

The real estate boards and media reports note that fewer sales are taking place right now. That is the first part of this stats information…the second part is often overlooked: the reason for fewer sales is that there are less listings to sell. It is not about lack of buyer demand.

A full-on buyers market and a full-on sellers market are extremes…and are difficult at both ends.

A buyers market simply means lots of listings and very few buyers. Buyers are in charge of outcomes and sellers price reductions are a part of the scene.

A sellers market means very few listings and many interested buyers. Price escalation is often an outcome in any new infrequent listings. Scarcity with strong demand creates this. There are many disappointed buyers, all vying for one listing that meets their criteria. This has led to bidding war/“over ask” outcomes.

Salt Spring Island Fall Market Statistics

At this very beginning of November, there are 61 residential listings on Salt Spring, not separating out waterfront, view, farm…simply residential.

  • 22 of them fall between 159,900 and 998,000
  • 20 of these are listed between 1,074,000 and 1,999,995.
  • 9 are listed between 2,049,000 and 2,888,000
  • 3 property listings between 3,985,000 and 3,999,800
  • Two listings between 4,888,000 and 4,595,000
  • Two listings between 6,300,000 and 6,688,800
  • One listing at 11,975,000.
  • One listings at listings at 14,000,000

At this very beginning of November, there are 26 land listings…again, not separating out waterfronts, view, lots, acreages.

The land options range from 259,000 to 2,995,000.

At this very beginning of November,

  • 248 “solds to date”…ranging from 199,000 to 5,795,000.

There have been several “holding back offers” situations, plus bidding wars, and many “over ask” outcomes. For more detailed information, please contact me.

Salt Spring Island: Sellers or Buyers Market

Projections continue to note that buyers are seeking rural places, where working from home is feasible, and where the lifestyle offers their wish list. Projections are also noting that listing inventory will remain low…most owners do not want to be sellers. Price rises are forecast. Buyers will need to continue to put their best foot forward, to secure a desired listing.

Are people land banking? Seeking investments that will protect capital? Maybe. These are uncertain times. Also, perhaps, the draw of a rural holding, where one might be self-sufficient, has an allure.

More information? Please contact me. Whether a sellers or a buyers market, there are usually work-arounds for a buyer to consider.

November is authentic late Fall. Weather will shift from fair to storm and back again. Live music venues, craft fairs, special events, gallery openings, hiking/walking trails to explore…the softer season still delivers pleasing experiences on Salt Spring and the Gulf Islands. Discover!

October 2021, Salt Spring Island Market Analysis

October, Salt Spring Island Real Estate Market

Authentic Fall. Harvest season, and the Saturday Market, Tuesday Farmer’s Market, and farm gate stands continue the theme.

Art on Salt Spring Island

Art on Salt Spring Island

Apple Fest pops up at the beginning of the month, the Canadian Thanksgiving Weekend celebrates mid-month, and the Hallowe’en finale reminds that soon the fallow field time will be with us.

Buyer Demand Remains on Salt Spring Island

In real estate, thin inventory continues and buyer demand remains a feature. The flight from urban to rural remains the driver of activity and most buyers continue to be from Vancouver/Lower Mainland.

In many cases, offers are held back for two or so weeks and then are all presented at same time (advertised this way on MLS)…this can lead to “over ask” bidding wars, or, at very least, to full-price and often unconditional offers.

Lately, buyers have been uncomfortable with these “offers to be presented all at same time/on a specific date” directions on a listing. Is this about buyer fatigue? Only one successful bidder and the one who takes it is without subject conditions.

Veggies & Harvest on Salt Spring Island

Veggies & Harvest on Salt Spring Island

Strong Sellers Market on Salt Spring Island

It still remains a strong sellers market. Buyers have to meet sellers expectations. How long will this last? Projections see this continuing into 2022/2023. It is about supply and demand. Prices are projected to rise. So many global issues and concerns…the seeking of safe havens is another aspect of the turn to rural and smaller communities. Land banking (purchases of land, with no immediate plan of building, might be a hedge against inflation? Another “hmmmm”…).

At this very beginning of October, 62 residential listings for sale on Salt Spring

  • 23 are below one million
  • 20 are between one and two million
  • 10 are between two and three million
  • 9 listings between 3,985,000 and 14,000,000 million

At the very beginning of October, there are 26 land listings (without separating out lots, acreages, waterfronts, views), between 259,000 and 2,995,000.

At the very beginning of October, there have been 335 sales to date.

  • 267 have been below one million
  • 55 have been between one million and two million
  • 8 have been between 2 and 3 million
  • 5 sales between 3 and 6 million

Low Listing Inventory

The listing inventory is shockingly low. Along with a market trend that currently favours sellers, the form of governance on Salt Spring and the Gulf Islands (the provincial government body known as the Islands Trust) effectively capped growth when it was created in 1974. Plus, the desire to live rural, the ability to seriously work from home, the allure of being self-sufficient and “apart” from urban issues…a perfect storm of transformational change? Maybe.

How to Enjoy the Beauty of The Islands

October…and on a Gulf Island. It’s fruition time. The splendour of the natural world is everywhere. Remember: we do have an editing function, we do have an off button, and we can give ourselves permission to enjoy the beauties of these islands.

On Salt Spring? Hiking/walking trails await, sailing races on Sunday afternoons, beachcombing delights, harvest menus (support the delectable restaurants), gallery meandering (don’t miss SSNAP (Salt Spring National Art Prize) showcase at Mahon Hall and the Parallel Art Show at ArtSpring. Star watching is terrific. Give yourself the gift of time.