June, 2012

June, 2012.

June…a feast for the senses in our part of the beautiful Pacific Northwest Coast.

The month of roses, of lilacs, of snapdragons, of lavendar, of orchards blossoming to fruition…lush and fragrant and so inviting!

Salt Spring and the Gulf Islands are a part of this envelope of largesse. Breathe it in…enjoy those patios that offer cappuccinos & green tea lattes…kayak out to meander Ruckle Park…dream into the sunsets from Vesuvius Beach…be inspired by vista (2) vistas…ocean and islands and mountains melding into silver and light. Beauty everywhere!

Lucky to be a visitor, lucky to be able to live here. Sometimes, though, it’s about timing.

Market-wise, we are nearing the half-way moment in this year’s rhythm.

To date, the sales action has continued in the entry level priced residential category.

The price ceiling for this property segment has been rising and inventory has been thinning…both good signs that a slow uptick is underway. This appears to be a general feature in all secondary home/discretionary areas.

Good news, after the past three to four “flat” years in our kind of discretionary area. No one “has to” buy a second home or a recreational property or a retirement investment…such marketplace regions can be put on hold, during troubled economic times. That describes the lack of action in the immediate (four year!) past.

Markets move in cycles. Are we in year 7 of a 7 to 10 year cycle in real estate and hard asset investing? If so, then we are in a natural upticking pattern.

By Spring of 2013, we should thus see increasing action in the undeveloped land & upper tier priced residential & in the commercial options. By Fall 2013, it should be a seller’s market once again.

Sound impossible? Motivation to preserve capital & to seek safe havens may be the propellers to this shift.

Those sellers who were able to wait out the downturn years will benefit from this shift into more buoyant times.

It is what it is, though, and, in a sense, we are all prisoners of our time.

Choice is the name of any secondary home marketplace…no one “has to” buy a recreational property, or a retirement option, or an investment purchase…it’s all at the behest of the buyer. We can be put “on hold” until things improve.

On the other hand, there now seems to be a move towards preservation of capital…a safe haven seeking. That is a strong propeller to action.

So, at an authentic shift moment, everything is on the table…up, down, seller moving towards a buyer and buyer moving towards a seller…it’s all there, and all at once! Inventory clean-out is a part of it, too.

At this beginning moment, at the start of June, much is yet to come forward. Our real market is July/August/September…almost upon us!

Meantime, enjoy the beauty of our area…a place to restore the soul!

May 2012, Salt Spring Island Real Estate Market Analysis

Copyright, Li Read, 2012

May, 2012.

It’s Spring in more ways than one…the slow uptick in the real estate market continues. Is this the renewed market everyone has been seeking?

Beginning days of improvement are underway, after the severe three year “Fall & Winter” flat/inaction in the hard asset investment choices…now there is a re-emergence of sales volume…are we in year 7 of a 7 to 10 year cycle? Perhaps.

If so, it’s a natural progression towards stability & growth. All markets follow cycles, and the feedback from all regions is that sales volume has jumped up in the entry level priced residential property category. Prices are still volatile.

This entry level pricings segment always improves first…in our local region, we have seen a sales volume uptick of around 30%, although the majority of sales to date are below 700,000…& most sales still fall below 500,000.

Prices are not stable and there are still serious price reductions at the point of an offer, in spite of earlier reductions en route to the offer.

Action in the upper tier priced residential category remains very spotty/flat…undeveloped land options & the commercial segment remain without interest.

Nevertheless, an increase in sales volume of around 30% in the first quarter is a sign of an emerging market. And in our specific area, this renewed activity is fully there at the beginning of our traditional “season”: May to early October. Good news, then, to have seen the first quarter busy when it should be & in the price level it should be. Timing is key to all markets.

Throughout North America, strong sales & thinning inventory are the outcomes of this first quarter activity, & this is now the case in secondary home/discretionary regions, too. Something new! Yes, the strong sales action is mainly in entry level priced residential properties, but this activity is seen across the board.

By July, all media options (they are always behind a market trend, as have to rely on statistics from past months) will be reporting this shift into renewed buyer action.

Why now? Perhaps the fear that cash is eroding as a means to preserve capital is making buyers reappear? Currencies are suddenly perceived as insecure, & there’s a growing desire for a safe haven, a seeking to be self-sufficient, a fear of the stock market’s volatility?…these all might be some reasons for the return to hard asset investment choices, & a resurgence in interest in discretionary properties. Suddenly, a purchase of a unique property in an area like the Gulf Islands is perceived as a good holding.

With huge uptick in entry level sales, which brings strengthening of prices & thinning inventory, and at the time of year this traditionally happens (first quarter), we are positioned to now welcome upper tier priced property buyers, & investors in land. May, July, August, early September are the key months, traditionally, for that investor buyer to appear.

The property market in secondary home/discretionary regions slowed in 2006. Sales volume decreased & a pause was very evident by 2007. The economic collapses of 2008 afflicted all regions, globally.

Primary residence/city markets saw a soft uptick in entry level sales by 2010…the secondary home/resort based marketplaces remained sluggish. Low interest rates never seem to jumpstart action. Buyers set markets, not sellers or realtors. When a buyer is “on hold” (& no one “has to” buy a second home or retire in any particular timeframe), then nothing will happen in a discretionary marketplace.

Price reductions don’t drive action. Those sellers who had the option to do so, and did remove themselves from the market, were wise. Pressure from companies to reduce prices (without an outcome) was perhaps understandable, from the company’s point of view, but it was not reflecting the buyer voice. When a buyer says: “I don’t know…I”ll think about it”…they mean it!

Now, the buyer is back, for the first time in the past three year period. The secondary home marketplace is busying up. By late Fall, we may see action having occurred in upper tier priced residential, in undeveloped land opportunities, & in commercial/investment options. We may be approaching year 8 of a 7 to 10 year cycle, and so should see thinning inventory/price stability/some multiple offer situations for unique & irreplaceable property options. Those owners who waited it out were wise; not always possible to do that, though.

The real estate industry itself continues to shift dramatically, in our post-Internet world. Change is the wallpaper of our global village. Thales was right that we never step into the same river twice. Now, as we enter May & the beginning of our “real” (& very short!) season, the buyers are back in our kind of market-by-choice, & the uptick is here. More info? Call me!

Don’t be looking in the rear view mirror…time for that down the highway vista!

Sales volume + thinning inventory + stability of pricing = movement to a sellers market.

And your thoughts are? Always welcome!

How may I help you to buy your special Salt Spring Island or Gulf Islands or Vancouver Island property? Call me!

Up & down…around & around…change, of course!

Change, change…everywhere a change….

Wasn’t that a theme from one of those 60s anthem tunes?

Whether one was there or simply studies those years as history, it’s clear that the current societal shifts were starting their baby steps of change in the latter years of that turbulent decade.

Another moment when the overwhelming numbers of the baby boomer generation bulged through. That time around they changed perceptions about the role of youth…all societal tenets were suddenly up for discussion & wholesale reworking.

It was still a top down world, though. Technology had not yet delivered power to the consumer of the culture. Clash was not just the name of a rock group…combative stances were the name of the game.

Creating change meant battling for the new paradigm. Amerika…names like Jerry Rubin, the Weathermen, Angela Davis, the Black Panthers, & the various liberation groups, including women’s lib & Gloria Steinem’s publishing power bid with Ms Magazine…was Archie Bunker the Seinfeld of his day?
The background sound was the helicopter confusion of the Vietnam War. Don’t trust anyone over 30…& Dylan’s Subterranean Homesick Blues said it all.

Lots of events between then & now. That hippie ethic, though, the short-lived alternative universe of that SF summer of love, a media myth perhaps, resulting in the spontaneous combustion of Woodstock, may just have gone underground between then & now. Was it that Woodstock moment, though, that reminded everyone there was power in sheer numbers?

Aging boomers, about to bulge through the next segment of life’s rhythm, aging, are changing perceptions about this final third of life…watch the latest crop of tv commercials…pharmaceuticals, to alleviate getting old, are here, there, & everywhere.

So, whether you’re in your 20s or in your 60s, time to dust off the past & look it in the eye. The 1960s began the march to bottom up & egalitarian level playing fields. The tool that delivered the possibility of the vision is our technology.

The boomers in the digital world created sleek devices, alluring & able to be held in our hand, fitted into a pocket, that allow every one of us to affect our immediate & our larger worlds. The meshing of inner & outer is possible.

Your voice is as important as my voice or his voice or her voice or as the CEO’s voice or as the president’s voice…what do the buddhists say? There is no them, there’s only us? Hmmm….

Connection is all. Otherwise, why the texting craze, 3000+ texts in a day, between friends, who only live a block apart. The same medium connects people 8000 miles apart. So, no possibility of separation, now? The commune ethic of connectedness between like spirits is with us? Geography & time have been erased?

Change is really just a scrub brush. There’s an abrasive quality to it, of course, as it scours out the past & so allows the smoothness of the future to unwrap itself. There’s no good or bad in it…it just “is”. Our opinion about it doesn’t count.

As Thales remarked, when observing a river: one never steps in the same water twice.

So, change. Affects how we live, how we work, how we communicate within the fabric of our newly global village, how we get through our days….

For real estate, the industry I’ve been a part of since 1989, the profound changes driven by the consumer “bottom up” motif are well underway. More about this later.

If you’re 18, you don’t notice technology…it’s just wallpaper. If you’re 55, you master it & wonder how you did without it, but you’re still a hybrid…you can straddle two worlds.

Two solitudes, bridged by a smart phone? Maybe….

Could be a juicy role here, in the boomer bulge. The great data maw needs constant feeding…who better than the historian, the interpreter of our pasts, to connect us to each other?

Maybe that’s a job description for our future-now world?

And on the subject of jobs…in this information age what does that word mean? Is the day of “the job” over?

And your thoughts are? Always welcome!

When?

When?

Well, what about right now?

You know what all the great philosophies teach: there is only the “now”…the “right this minute” moment in time.

There will never be a better time than this “right now”.

Markets are cyclic in nature. Buyers Markets and Sellers Markets have rhythms…and a cycle might follow a 7 to 10 year pattern.

What goes down goes back up, and the equilibrium point between markets can be of very short duration.

Since 2006, and globally so, it has been “flat” in secondary home/discretionary areas. The result: price reductions, motivated sellers, low interest rates to encourage action, good inventory choices, but reluctant buyers.

Now, there are whispers of change, on an uptick trend…perhaps we will look back and decide that October 2010 to October 2011 was the bottom-bottom in the market. From now on, it should show marked improvement in sales volume, followed by thinning inventory, then price stability, and finally a turn into true sellers market territory. Perhaps by 2013?

My definitions:

a buyer’s market is characterized by lots of inventory and few buyers. A seller’s market: hardly any inventory and lots of buyers.

Remember the old economics law of supply & demand? Hmmm….

So, the “when” of action? Be in that “right now” moment…act when it’s good for you to do so. Weigh the options…decide if it works for you…that proactive stance will benefit your outcomes.

The eternal question: “what’s the market doing?”…well it’s on the move. How about you?

Thinking of a purchase on Salt Spring Island or a Gulf Island? Call me! The time is always good.

How may I help you to buy your special Salt Spring Island or Gulf Islands property? Look forward to your call!

liread33@gmail.com

How?

How?

First, call me.

Suggestions on places to stay, routes of arrival.

Information on events, things to do & to see, free maps & full real estate information (of course!), plus background lore of the Gulf Islands & of Salt Spring Island. The historical perspective is always fun!

You can fly in to Vancouver International Airport, take a 10 minute cab ride to the “south terminal” and catch one of three floatplane companies that service directly to Salt Spring Island…these are year round/regular scheduled flights:
Harbour Air, Seair, & Salt Spring Air. It’s about a 12 minute flight from Airport to Ganges Village on Salt Spring.

Harbour Air & Salt Spring Air also go from Salt Spring to downtown Vancouver Harbour…approximately a 25 minute flight.

Salt Spring Air also connects with the Victoria Airport (Patricia Bay connection) and with Maple Bay (on Vancouver Island).

There is a ferry from Vancouver’s Tsswassan terminal direct to Long Harbour on Salt Spring Island. Another ferry links Victoria’s Swartz Bay terminal with Fulford Harbour on Salt Spring. A third ferry links Crofton, a mid-Vancouver Island terminal with Vesuvius on Salt Spring. These three connections are regular year round scheduled ferries.

Arriving from the U.S.? Take the Washington State ferry’s international sailing from Anacortes to Sidney…drive ten minutes to Swartz Bay and drive onto the Fulford bound ferry. Or, come via the Blackball ferry from Port Angeles to Victoria, and make your way to either Swartz Bay or to Crofton terminals.

Coming from Lower Mainland? Along with that direct Tsswassan route, you could catch the ferry from Horseshoe Bay to Departure Bay, at Nanaimo, & then a short drive south delivers you to Crofton and the ferry to Vesuvius, on Salt Spring.

Check the B.C. Ferries website for further schedule information.

Easy to enjoy a visit to Salt Spring and the Gulf Islands from anywhere in the world.

Discovery is always the first step in any new adventure.

Not from Canada? Easy to enjoy property ownership on the Islands, on a seasonal basis. Want to move here and never leave? Call me, and I can put you in touch with appropriate advisors, including immigration lawyers, to discuss landed immigrant potential.

These peaceful and beautiful Gulf Islands, including the jewel of Salt Spring Island, shimmer gracefully in the Salish Sea (the historical name for Georgia Strait).

I look forward to helping you to discover them. Call me!

How may I help you to buy your Salt Spring Island or Gulf Islands property? Look forward to your call.

liread33@gmail.com

April 2012, Salt Spring Island Market Analysis

April, 2012

Change is erupting all around us.

The change of seasons is the easy one!

The continuing evolution of our post-Internet 21st Century world delivers shifts on an almost daily basis, and in all spheres.

The MLS system is undergoing substantial change. The consumer control over connection means agent marketing must change, and what about social media venues for linking a buyer with a realtor and thus with a seller? What about that role of the realtor as the connecting bridge between a seller & a buyer?

Locally on Salt Spring, in real estate, we have seen the closing of a long standing franchise based local office and seen its office space & remaining realtors being assumed by a non-franchise off-island company.

I think this kind of amalgamation/restructuring will continue. The impact of the internet on all business models continues. Nothing remains untouched. The car industry, the travel industry, the stock market & financial side of investment, even education…these business models have completely changed because of that consumer-oriented Internet impact. The Real Estate industry is no exception.

The franchise model of real estate is a 20th Century and pre-Internet concept. Any benefits to a franchise connection were erased after the internet’s impact. The Internet delivered control of the sales process to the consumer of the service.

As the technological and consumer oriented world continues to progress, some franchise options are disappearing or are trying to survive by amalgamating with others. The “big box” solution.

Some others are attempting to fit the very different evolutions in the business world into their systems…add ons with the appearance of the “new” (meaning the “current”). Since the ground level is where the change has occurred, this band-aid approach may not be sustainable.

Localized boutique style and “niche” business models may be an arrow towards a new/different sales model…if such boutique ventures are using the Internet the way the consumer is involved with it, that is. One has to be where the customer is…otherwise, in the all encompassing terrain of the Global Village, the information won’t get to the consumer.

The bottom line: what system displays the information directly to the consumer, and, at the same time, invites a proactive response from that consumer? Ah…that is the question and the oh so sought after answer! Isn’t that what SEO is all about?

Real Estate companies put together an array of marketing ideas for their salespeople. The company charges their salespeople to use them. Nothing is for free. These options appear as logos on generic company sponsored business cards, and are mentioned on company websites.

To benefit from these options, though, an individual realtor would have to pay for their use. Belonging to a franchise company is the generic logo part. To use what that company promises, the individual realtors pay to take part. Unless they do that, the company descriptions are just logos, with no particular focus on specific listings/areas.

Marketing is about perception, of course. Even if no substance behind it, the mere statement of something promised will often create an initial business relationship. This does not deliver a hoped for result, however.

Be sure to inquire. Yes, yes…your company says “x”, but do you do that for me, as my individual realtor in my specific area? Be a savvy consumer!

A branch office of a franchise (each office is locally owned and operated; the franchise name is like an overall umbrella name), or a boutique option (specific to an area), or a realtor acting unilaterally, as a Licenced individual…the 21st Century allows them all, and due to the impact of that direct consumer experience, the search engine power, all of them are now equal in marketing venues. Now that is something different!

A “big box” name is sitting on the same level playing field, now, as the area specific boutique office or even the individual realtor presence. That leveling influence is, of course, the result of the consumer driven Internet search…with its capability that puts the user of the search in control of both the discovery & the outcome. Different days, indeed!

And what about that office? Is it real? Virtual? Does it matter? Not.

In the Ethernet space of the virtual Internet world, it’s the information that is being provided, to the searching & consumer driven “engine”, that is the essential item.

I always feel that our time is like that classic schism between the long ages of the agrarian lifestyle & the sudden, unforeseen, explosive impact of the Industrial Revolution. Those on the side of the older world experienced the pain of change & some jobs disappeared. Those on the side of the new world of the machine age experienced the euphoria of change & new jobs came into being. Sound familiar?

Change means different…something new replacing something old. In a post-internet business environment, the key is to get the information to the attention of the person who needs that information. However, that “consumer in control of the action” aspect means that the end user is in charge of the “where & the when” of the action.

I think real estate as an industry is in the middle of the change delivered by the Internet.

As a realtor, one has to be in the flow of the shift, and be attentive to what delivers the bridge moment between a seller and a buyer.

That is where a realtor lives…at the point of expediting that connection. Important, then, that the realtor remain nimble & willing to change, & to experiment, in the effort to connect a listing with a buyer.

Ah…in change lies opportunity.

Markets are not static items, either. This Spring, the Gulf Islands are showing a definite uptick in sales volume in the entry level priced residential category. It is just beginning to be felt by the upper tier priced residential options. Good news, indeed! We may be in the slow climb out of a downmarket…perhaps we are in year 7 of a 7 to 10 year cycle?

Our season is traditionally March Break to Canadian Thanksgiving Weekend, in early October. For the first time in four years, there is market buoyancy when there should be.

As a buyer, it’s important to recognize that the benefits of a buyer’s market may be dissipating. Seller’s market in place by late Fall or by early Spring, next year? Hmmm…change, remember. Being nimble..being in the flow of what is.