Market Analysis

Salt Spring Island real estate in depth monthly analysis by Sea to Sky Properties’ broker, Li Read

February 2022, Salt Spring Island Market Analysis

February 2022, Salt Spring Island Market Analysis

Salt Spring Island

Salt Spring Island

February brings with it the whispered promise of Spring. It also offers Family Day Holiday Weekend and Valentine’s Day.

February can also be a month that offers financial planning seminars. What used to be in-person lectures and trade fairs have become zoom presentations and podcasts.

Were the serendipitous encounters among in-person attendees often more meaningful than the prepared presentations? Hmmm…. Have we now become a culture of being lectured to? No more idea-sharing with savvy strangers at the live events?

It’s early days to decide on the tone of the 2022 real estate market. In the secondary home/rural regions, such as Salt Spring and the Gulf Islands, there has been a traditional seasonality of listings and sales.

Although buyers can turn up throughout the year (and they do), there is a pattern of consistent activity in such recreational areas between March Break (mid-March) and the Canadian Thanksgiving (mid-October). It will be interesting to see if a number of new listings will appear for that March “early Spring” market.

At this very beginning of February, the extraordinarily low inventory that has characterized secondary home real estate markets everywhere, between mid-2020 and late 2021, continues on Salt Spring and the Gulf Islands.

Buyer Interest Remains Strong

The few sales in January, 2022, may have had their beginnings in late 2021 and simply completed in January…perhaps not new business then. A few of those sales saw price reductions from list prices, and that was a difference from many full or “over ask” outcomes that occurred in early to mid 2021.

Buyer interest remains strong, most owners in rural areas still do not want to be sellers, and the flight from urban to rural remains the propeller to action.

The authentic ability to work from home means it’s possible to live in apart places. Choice is there for consumers. Many buyers on the Gulf Islands continue to be from Vancouver/Lower Mainland.

Salt Spring Island Market Statistics

Residential

  • 39 residential listings – 159,900 to 14,000,000 – Thirteen of these listings are below one million – two are in Brinkworthy (a 55+ modular home development and one does not own the pad) – five of them are not yet built (the final phase at Summerside townhomes)
  • Ten of the residential options are listed between one and two million
  • Eight are listed between 2 and 3 million
  • One is listed at 3,988,000 and one at 4,595,000.
  • Three are listed between 6 and 7 million.
  • One is listed at 11,975,000
  • Two are listed at 14,000,000

Land

  • 24 land listings.
  • 16 of these are below one million.
  • Six of them are between one and two million
  • One is listed at 2,995,000
  • One at 4,900,000

Sales

  • 10 sales to date
  • Seven of these were between 330,000 and 792,000
  • Three were between 1,500,000 and 1,784,000.

2022 may be a year of flux.

Globally Posturings & Uncertainty

Globally, there are anxious posturings: troop build-ups, supply line interruptions, stock market ricochets, inflation, pandemic changes to everyday life, interest rate potential increases, changes to city/town-scapes as populations work from home and shop online…the new world is evolving under our feet, it seems, and there is no solid road map yet, going forward.

Uncertainty may simply be the surround sound of our post-pandemic time.

IT/robotics remain interesting and tech advances are well underway. Immersive video may be the key to real estate sales from buyers not physically present to view. Stay tuned, as the quality and ease of the tech side continues to evolve. An exciting time to be present, and the speed of change makes it seem like 2015 is already the very distant past. Hmmm……

The Promise of Spring

February. Yes, the calendar says it’s still winter, but the great Pacific Northwest Coast often delivers the haphazard promise of Spring.

Catch those sunny clear days…check out the hiking/walking trails, plan your “real Spring” garden, enjoy the gift of lengthening days, give yourself a treat and do day trips to nearby Gulf Islands or Vancouver Island, walk the Fernwood Beach at low tide, enjoy sunsets from Vesuvius Beach, take yourself and a friend to one of our super restaurants and enjoy the inspiring views from their windows.

Lots to do and to enjoy on Salt Spring and the Gulf Islands at this hiatus time of year. The promise of “Discover Yourself Here” is true…check it out.

January 2022, Salt Spring Island Market Analysis

A New Year on Salt Spring Island, 2022

A new year. As we step into this very beginning of 2022, it’s good to remember the ancient Roman deity that gives January its name. Janus had two faces, one looking back and the other forward.

We do carry the end of the year just passed into the very early days of the new year, of course, but it’s essential to immediately face forward. The universe reminds us that there is only one direction…it’s called face forward and go for it.

Covid Restrictions still in place & Tech Solutions

The provincial and federal government restrictions to halt the covid outbreaks in 2020/2021 also forced everyone to actively be in the digital world. Zoom and its competitors were found at business meetings, churches, schools, family gatherings, banking, shopping…in all encounters…in other words, the digital experience replaced the in-person meet-up.

The outcome of the virus pandemic has been to familiarize the population with the screen reality. It’s been clunky, though. Perhaps the message of 2022 will be to create a more seamless meshing of digital and in-person realities? Techies: away you go…..

Pandemic Closures Ignites Secondary Home/Rural Regions

The pandemic closures of 2020 ignited the secondary home/rural regions real estate markets across Canada…all B.C. coastal communities experienced this flight from urban to rural. Sales in late 2020 began in the affordable price points. By early 2021, Salt Spring and the Gulf Islands began to experience bidding wars and “over ask” outcomes became the norm in that diminishing “affordable” residential category.

By March of 2021, sales of luxury residential properties began. Suddenly, that market experienced outcomes that matched pre-2008 prices.

As pleasing residential options disappeared, undeveloped land began to find buyers…starting in late spring/early summer. Is this continuing interest in land now also a form of land banking? A wish to keep pace with rising inflation?

The lack of inventory in rural areas can be attributed to the lack of owners wanting to be sellers. As things slowly but consistently sell, very little new comes onstream to replace those “solds”.

It appears that there is a major turning point/societal rewrite underway. A desire to live more simply, to be more self-sufficient, coupled with the ability to authentically work from home, all coalesced into this decision to “go rural”. Yes, there is a back to the land component.

As the pandemic continues to weave its way through the populations, globally, that seeking of an “apart” location also continues.

For some time, the buyer on Salt Spring and the Gulf Islands has been from Vancouver.

Meantime, at this very beginning of 2022, the real estate market on Salt Spring sees the following:

Residential

there are approximately …

  • 43 residential listings.
  • 13 of these listings are under one million.
  • 13 of these listings are between one and two million.
  • 8 are between two and three million.
  • One is between 3 and 4 million. T
  • wo are between 4 and 5 million.
  • Three are between 6 and 7 million.
  • One is between 11 and 12 million.
  • Two are listed at 14 million.

Land

there are approximately

  • 28 land listings.
  • 19 of these are between 200,000 and one million.
  • 7 are between one and two million.
  • One is between 2 and 3 million.
  • One is between 4 and 5 million.

Sales

there were approximately

  • 271 sales at the close of 2021. There were
  • 190 sales between 190,000 and one million. (In many cases, bidding wars took placein this category.)
  • 67 sales between one and two million.
  • 8 sales between two and three million.
  • 3 sales between 3 and 4 million.
  • 3 sales between 5 and 6 million.

It seems as if numbers of sales and sale price points may have returned to 2005/2006 activity levels.

Supply and demand create markets…when driven by strong buyer desire. We remain, at this very beginning of 2022, in a strong sellers market on Salt Spring and the Southern Gulf Islands. Projections call for continuing sellers market conditions.

Meantime, it’s January…a great time to make sure one is ready for the metaverse. The “new” is profound and there is a distinct divide between pre- and post-pandemic times…important, then, to run with the flow of change. Remember Thales, another savvy Ancient Greek: one never steps in the same water twice…it’s flowing on and always new.

Meantime, to all, best wishes for a very Happy and Prosperous New Year

December 2021, Salt Spring Island Market Analysis

December 2021, Salt Spring Island Real Estate Market

Rain and snow and then crisp days of brilliant sun, with mesmerizing ocean/islands/mountain viewscapes.

A time of seasonal lights, family traditions, special menus, craft fairs, markets, choral presentations…and a time of gifting to those who need it most.

Salt Spring and the Gulf Islands are offering the softer season delights to both locals and visitors. Take part! Support local.

December is also a time to look back at what has been and to look forward to what is emerging.

Strong Sales in 2021

There have been strong sales throughout 2021. In residential options, if listed below one million, there were several sales “over ask”. Only one property and several interested buyers…a recipe for bidding wars.

By Spring, higher end listings began to sell and also undeveloped land opportunities…as we edge to the end of the year, we have extremely low inventory in all property types and price points.

While the majority of sales are below 1.2 million, there are still many more sales above that mark, and that has not been seen since pre-2008 economic meltdowns. It seems that we have returned to a pattern not seen since 2004/05.

A societal rewrite

The flight from urban to rural is underway, and the authentic ability to work from home supports this. A societal rewrite appears to be happening. The outcomes of the changes that began with the first covid closures almost two years ago are not fully in place yet.

  • At this very beginning of December, there are approximately 55 residential listings, not separating out waterfront, view, townhome, farm, lot, acreage. The prices range from 159,900 to 14,000,000.
  • At this very beginning of December, there are approximately 28 land listings…not separating out waterfront, view, lot, acreage. Prices range from 259,000 to 4,900,000.
  • Together, that means approximately 83 listings are available for a buyer to consider. Usually we would see a total of 300+ listings.
  • At this very beginning of December, there have been approximately 265 sales to date, ranging between 199,000 and 5,850,000.
Salt Spring Island

Salt Spring Island

A desire to leave city congestion and seek a rural lifestyle continue to be the main propellers to action. The Gulf Islands offer a preserved environment, due to the Islands Trust form of governance (in place since 1974). Ask me about this important aspect.

The evolution of the internet so that it now fully supports the ability to work remotely is also a part of allowing the shift to smaller communities.

Owners in these areas do not want to be sellers, and that is also part of the reason for such low inventory. This is a true sellers market.

A Competitive Market

Buyers have to make their best efforts…they are in competition. They might need to consider renovation or building projects after purchase…buyers are not in the driver’s seat right now. Until there is more supply, this thin market will continue. It may take two years to see a further supply of housing come to market.

Concerns over inflation might also be a factor in land sales…real estate values keep pace with inflation. It is a strong hard asset. Land banking may be the reason for some land sales. Welcome your thoughts here.

There are always issues, of course. December, though, brings with it a season of light and joy.

Some loved Island events (such as Santa’s Carol Ship) were cancelled due to covid shut-downs, but many remain. Check the various holiday calendars for the Gulf Islands and enjoy the special events that are offered. Whether large or small celebrations, remember to enjoy the festive time. It is “the season”!

November 2021, Salt Spring Island Market Analysis

November 2021, Salt Spring Island Real Estate Market

Salt Spring Island, Fall

Salt Spring Island, Fall

November…and already real estate projections are into early 2022.

More than Meets the Eye

The real estate boards and media reports note that fewer sales are taking place right now. That is the first part of this stats information…the second part is often overlooked: the reason for fewer sales is that there are less listings to sell. It is not about lack of buyer demand.

A full-on buyers market and a full-on sellers market are extremes…and are difficult at both ends.

A buyers market simply means lots of listings and very few buyers. Buyers are in charge of outcomes and sellers price reductions are a part of the scene.

A sellers market means very few listings and many interested buyers. Price escalation is often an outcome in any new infrequent listings. Scarcity with strong demand creates this. There are many disappointed buyers, all vying for one listing that meets their criteria. This has led to bidding war/“over ask” outcomes.

Salt Spring Island Fall Market Statistics

At this very beginning of November, there are 61 residential listings on Salt Spring, not separating out waterfront, view, farm…simply residential.

  • 22 of them fall between 159,900 and 998,000
  • 20 of these are listed between 1,074,000 and 1,999,995.
  • 9 are listed between 2,049,000 and 2,888,000
  • 3 property listings between 3,985,000 and 3,999,800
  • Two listings between 4,888,000 and 4,595,000
  • Two listings between 6,300,000 and 6,688,800
  • One listing at 11,975,000.
  • One listings at listings at 14,000,000

At this very beginning of November, there are 26 land listings…again, not separating out waterfronts, view, lots, acreages.

The land options range from 259,000 to 2,995,000.

At this very beginning of November,

  • 248 “solds to date”…ranging from 199,000 to 5,795,000.

There have been several “holding back offers” situations, plus bidding wars, and many “over ask” outcomes. For more detailed information, please contact me.

Salt Spring Island: Sellers or Buyers Market

Projections continue to note that buyers are seeking rural places, where working from home is feasible, and where the lifestyle offers their wish list. Projections are also noting that listing inventory will remain low…most owners do not want to be sellers. Price rises are forecast. Buyers will need to continue to put their best foot forward, to secure a desired listing.

Are people land banking? Seeking investments that will protect capital? Maybe. These are uncertain times. Also, perhaps, the draw of a rural holding, where one might be self-sufficient, has an allure.

More information? Please contact me. Whether a sellers or a buyers market, there are usually work-arounds for a buyer to consider.

November is authentic late Fall. Weather will shift from fair to storm and back again. Live music venues, craft fairs, special events, gallery openings, hiking/walking trails to explore…the softer season still delivers pleasing experiences on Salt Spring and the Gulf Islands. Discover!

October 2021, Salt Spring Island Market Analysis

October, Salt Spring Island Real Estate Market

Authentic Fall. Harvest season, and the Saturday Market, Tuesday Farmer’s Market, and farm gate stands continue the theme.

Art on Salt Spring Island

Art on Salt Spring Island

Apple Fest pops up at the beginning of the month, the Canadian Thanksgiving Weekend celebrates mid-month, and the Hallowe’en finale reminds that soon the fallow field time will be with us.

Buyer Demand Remains on Salt Spring Island

In real estate, thin inventory continues and buyer demand remains a feature. The flight from urban to rural remains the driver of activity and most buyers continue to be from Vancouver/Lower Mainland.

In many cases, offers are held back for two or so weeks and then are all presented at same time (advertised this way on MLS)…this can lead to “over ask” bidding wars, or, at very least, to full-price and often unconditional offers.

Lately, buyers have been uncomfortable with these “offers to be presented all at same time/on a specific date” directions on a listing. Is this about buyer fatigue? Only one successful bidder and the one who takes it is without subject conditions.

Veggies & Harvest on Salt Spring Island

Veggies & Harvest on Salt Spring Island

Strong Sellers Market on Salt Spring Island

It still remains a strong sellers market. Buyers have to meet sellers expectations. How long will this last? Projections see this continuing into 2022/2023. It is about supply and demand. Prices are projected to rise. So many global issues and concerns…the seeking of safe havens is another aspect of the turn to rural and smaller communities. Land banking (purchases of land, with no immediate plan of building, might be a hedge against inflation? Another “hmmmm”…).

At this very beginning of October, 62 residential listings for sale on Salt Spring

  • 23 are below one million
  • 20 are between one and two million
  • 10 are between two and three million
  • 9 listings between 3,985,000 and 14,000,000 million

At the very beginning of October, there are 26 land listings (without separating out lots, acreages, waterfronts, views), between 259,000 and 2,995,000.

At the very beginning of October, there have been 335 sales to date.

  • 267 have been below one million
  • 55 have been between one million and two million
  • 8 have been between 2 and 3 million
  • 5 sales between 3 and 6 million

Low Listing Inventory

The listing inventory is shockingly low. Along with a market trend that currently favours sellers, the form of governance on Salt Spring and the Gulf Islands (the provincial government body known as the Islands Trust) effectively capped growth when it was created in 1974. Plus, the desire to live rural, the ability to seriously work from home, the allure of being self-sufficient and “apart” from urban issues…a perfect storm of transformational change? Maybe.

How to Enjoy the Beauty of The Islands

October…and on a Gulf Island. It’s fruition time. The splendour of the natural world is everywhere. Remember: we do have an editing function, we do have an off button, and we can give ourselves permission to enjoy the beauties of these islands.

On Salt Spring? Hiking/walking trails await, sailing races on Sunday afternoons, beachcombing delights, harvest menus (support the delectable restaurants), gallery meandering (don’t miss SSNAP (Salt Spring National Art Prize) showcase at Mahon Hall and the Parallel Art Show at ArtSpring. Star watching is terrific. Give yourself the gift of time.

September 2021, Salt Spring Island Market Analysis

September Brings Fall to Salt Spring Island

September. Meteorological Fall is here on the 1st and the calendar catches up on the 20th.

Along with the seasonal shift, there are continuing government mandated efforts to diminish the effects of the fourth wave of covid. Masks are again essential, vaccination passports will be law, social distancing continues in public spaces, further closures may be coming if the virus continues to remain out of control, and booster shots are being discussed.

Global concerns, wars and rumours of wars, financial hesitancies (currency concerns, interest rates, inflation)…hmmm…turbulence continues in all domains.

Low Inventory on Salt Spring Island

What about the real estate outcomes in our region? The extraordinarily low inventory of available properties continues. In residential options below a million, bidding wars can still occur. In all price points/property types, sellers are often receiving “close to” or “at list” prices. It remains a sellers market in all the coastal areas, including on the Gulf Islands.

The main propeller to action continues to be a desire for a rural lifestyle, and it is now possible to authentically work from home. A lifestyle rewrite is a factor in a buyer’s decision to move to “apart” areas. Buyers continue to be mainly from the Vancouver/Lower Mainland region. They plan to live permanently at their chosen new location.

Sellers and realtors do not set markets…buyers do that. Buyers create action and set the pace in real estate sales. As long as buyers are desiring to live on a Gulf Island, sales will remain consistent.

Autumn Leaves on Salt Spring Island

Fall is a beautiful season on Salt Spring and the Gulf Islands. Early Fall can be a lot like late summer, and the fruition time continues. Lots to do and to enjoy.

With the return to some Covid restrictions, any large gatherings may be reconfigured or return to online versions (check on outcome for Fall Fair, for example).

The Saturday Market and the Tuesday Farmers Market continue…the farm gate stands provide amazing fresh produce and fruits/berries. The wine tastings at Garry Oak and Salt Spring Vineyards continue…award winning wines to enjoy here. The cideries and the craft brewery invite your tasting pleasures. The largesse of the season is here to be enjoyed on special Salt Spring. A WOW!

Li Read, Salt Spring Island Realtor

Thinking of selling? Call me for up to the minute market reports and knowledge of marketing opportunities. In a sellers market, there are few choices for a serious buyer…it’s still essential to optimize presentation in rural areas. The mainly non-local buyer is looking “everywhere” and all rural areas are in competition for the same buyer profile.

Thinking of buying? It’s true that a sellers market means less choice for a buyer, though there are always options for successful connections, no matter the market trend in play. It’s important to be pre-approved and so ready to act. It’s also important to recognize the authentic diamond in the rough…and to be willing for some renovations. Land, location, light, water…all in good order? Then consider taking on a property that will need updates…those are the ones that become good investments over time. More questions? Call me!

September on Salt Spring and the Southern Gulf Islands remains an inspiring month of natural beauty…many warm days, lots of clear evenings for star watching, and an invitation to enjoy hiking/walking trails. Patio/deck dining continues to be enjoyed (our terrific restaurants and coffee stops beckon). A softer season this early Fall moment…catch it!