January Mid-Market Update – Early 2025, Salt Spring

Real estate markets are not static items…they change (and the shifts can be rapid), as different elements come to the fore.

Renewed Sales

2024 saw renewed sales in October, November, December…with projections for 2025 mentioning continuing low inventory and potential for resulting price increases.

Since then, the early days of 2025 have seen the prime minister stepping down, a Liberal party seeking a leader replacement, an understanding that all this will result in a Spring federal election.

At the same time, the incoming president of the U.S., our biggest trading partner, appears to be serious about his 25% tariff hit for Canada. The premiers are not of one voice re response, and B.C.’s premier acknowledges that such tariffs would decimate the B.C. economy. Meantime, absence of leader/prime minister role federally means no unified voice for negotiations.

Markets do not like uncertainty.

These early days of 2025 are showing mixed signals and it may take until late April or May to see coherent outcomes in real estate activity.

The diminishing value of the Canadian dollar might be one reason owners are not wanting to be sellers…as a way of preserving capital through a real estate investment.

The Bank of Montreal (BMO) is stating that real estate outcomes may not improve markedly until 2029. Different reasons are given. Again, projections and trends can change quickly in any market driven sector and these concepts are not static reports…it is opinion.

Meantime, low inventory & buyer reluctance make it difficult for marketing decisions by realtors…and various marketing venues are noting less uptake.
The year has opened with unexpected shifts…always interesting.

Questions/comments? Look forward to hearing from you.

January 2025 – Market Analysis – Salt Spring Island

January, 2025

Here we are, at the very beginning of a New Year. Past and future mingle.

Named for the Roman god Janus, a deity with two faces, one looking behind and the other gazing forward, January offers us both the immediate past and hopes for the future.

Real Estate Review

2024 closed with extraordinary and continuing low real estate inventory. Serious interest rate cuts did help to create renewed sales action in October, November, December. Prices stabilized. Projections for real estate were all suggesting that price escalation would occur in 2025 and inventory would continue to remain low.

It takes until March Break to see the tone of a new year, in our secondary home/recreational marketplace. What we do know: the low inventory means lack of choice for buyers. It encourages action when a buyer sees a possibility and it may mean having to offer close to list price or “over ask”. It may also encourage the reverse, inducing a wait and see pause, similar to the outcomes in 2022, 2023, and early 2024. Stable pricing and lack of product do not necessarily create strong sales. Buyers can also tread water.

Global Factors

So many global events and changes make it difficult to call projections. A low Canadian dollar against the U.S. currency may bring strong tourism from the U.S. The federal ban on foreign ownership (currently until January, 2027) makes it difficult for U.S. buyers to invest (once a strong buyer profile in all the Gulf Islands). There are many exceptions to this ban on foreign purchases…important to check into these.

Wars and rumours of wars persist. Diminished purchasing power of the Canadian currency is worrisome. The true effect of Artificial Intelligence has not been fully understood. A new president takes office in the U.S., and Canadian outcomes are often framed by decisions taken with its biggest trading partner. Pressure to call a federal election is gathering interest from the other parties. The provincial government has put off a legislative sitting until February, and requires an arrangement with the two elected Greens to offer governance.

Navigating Change

Change, change…everywhere a change….yes, we can all hum away to this 1960s tune. January opens with significant shifts. Time to attend seminars and webinars on financial projections…time to listen a lot…time to value again the hard asset protections, the preservation of capital, offered by good real estate holdings.

If an owner, is it a time to sit tight? Unless one knows next steps, one might sell and then not find a replacement…becoming houseless is a real issue. If a buyer, is it time to buy what may need work, but will escalate in value over time? Younger buyers might be wise to consider “sweat equity” concepts. Or think about creative co-ownership opportunities. Thinking in-depth is a good way to navigate the first six weeks of a New Year.

Looking Forward

So, it’s January…mid-winter in our coastal area. Every day is a few seconds longer and the slow march to Spring is underway. Tiny shoots of green are visible in protected corners of gardens and fields. It may look severe above ground, but at that root level it is busy getting ready for Spring’s eruption. A good reminder that we have the opportunity to consider planning for changes, too.

It’s January…time to segue into new things…at this truly New Year. And your plan is? Share.

December 2024 – Market Analysis – Salt Spring Island

December introduces Winter. We are a four seasons region.

Although the calendar says it starts around the 20th, let’s remember that meteorological Winter starts on December 1st.

  • Craft Fairs:
    • WinterCraft at Mahon Hall
    • Beaver Point annual craft fair
    • Fulford Hall annual craft fair

    Welcome one at the very beginning of December.

  • The Ganges Galleries are showcasing their amazingly talented artists.
  • The excellent restaurants and coffee stops are treating patrons to special menus.
  • Winter Wander (shop late)
  • Glowtini
  • Village Light-Up
  • Farmgate stands light-up tour
  • Holiday windows in the Village

Lots to enjoy as the season wears its festive face.

Real Estate on Salt Spring in December, 2024

Real estate in December? Well, yes. It seems that the seasonality of previous years has gone. The market now appears to be “always”. In our secondary home/recreational marketplace, potential buyers can turn up anytime.


Sometimes, with knowledge of the area, buyers purposely choose late Fall and Winter seasons…the idea being that if a property looks great in November or January, then they know it will be incredible in July. Sometimes, it just takes time to get all their ducks in a row (sale of a city property, financing in place, decision for a Gulf Island destination, and so on). Listing in Winter, with less options on market to catch a buyer’s attention, can prove to be a “smart cookie” choice.


Some trends remain: very low inventory (most owners do not want to be sellers), relatively stable pricings, and projections that recent interest rate cuts by BOC (Bank of Canada) will propel the real estate market forward in 2025.

Should I Buy Now?

Side-line sitters, from 2022 to Fall 2024, are deciding that they would be wise to act now…before a projected Spring uptick. Those concerned about currency fluctuations might be choosing to see real estate as a way to preserve capital. Generally, the move from urban to rural continues to be a strong motivator for action. Geopolitical concerns might also generate interest in living in quieter/”apart” places.

Looking for specific opportunities to buy? Contact me. Look forward to helping you to discover your Salt Spring Island and Gulf Island special property, and to consider creative solutions for a successful purchase.


Thinking of selling? I look forward to discussing my several marketing opportunities with you…both digital and targeted print. There is no local market on a Gulf Island…it’s essential to successfully get the information out to the wider world. Look forward to hearing from you.

Meantime: it’s December. Time to enjoy traditions, lights, music, special foods, memories (old and new). Catch seasonal events at ArtSpring. Enjoy a holiday lunch or dinner with friends. Take time to meander Ganges and Fulford Villages…lights sparkling in late afternoon are magical. Santa arrives, remember…be there to welcome him. Whether with children or not, it is a season that invites us to be a part of that special sense of wonder. It’s December. Enjoy!

November 2024 – Market Analysis – Salt Spring Island

November… darker (end of Daylight Saving), post-harvest, thoughtful. Yes, it’s “fall back” time.

 

November 11th offers appreciation for those who served in wars past and those who serve today, to protect Canadians and their values, their lifestyles. Wear the poppy on Remembrance Day, in acknowledgement of sacrifices made.

Nature is wearing a more somber palette in November, as leaves drift from trees, and dark branches meet skylines. November speaks the tongue of grey…pewter seas, pearl clouds, charcoal forests, the metal hues of grey meshing with rain squalls that smear our vistas.

 

November…a time to light candles, investigate specialty soups, start to read a fat book, and remember to keep active.

Fall Market Trends

The real estate market? Oddly enough, the Fall Market can see a busier sales season. This has been the case in 2024, after an oddly quiet summer.

Often, buyers view properties earlier, and then they bring an offer later in the year. Sometimes, it’s about a hope that a seller will look favourably on an offer…the end of a year, the end of a season, and possibly a seller may just want to be out of the stress of selling. Sometimes that is the case.

 

Buyer Patterns and Market Dynamics

It can also be about the buyers rhythm…they know they want to leave urban for rural, but they have not decided on the “where”. Salt Spring and the Gulf Islands have competition from Vancouver Island communities, and buyers want to be sure of their decisions.

It takes time to visit areas and to make that choice of “where”. Until that is done, the “when” of a move is not in place.

Time lags are a factor in the rural secondary home markets. A buyer sees something interesting on the internet, then comes to view, then checks out other areas “to be sure” of initial impressions, then returns to seriously view available inventory in the acceptable price range, and then considers an outcome. This whole process can take several months.

Usually there are two and possibly three visits to an area. Fall is often when all the questions gel into answers and a buyer makes an offer.

 

There is no local market on the Gulf Islands and so visits are often widely spaced. It can take one to two years to sell a Gulf Island property. The outcome of this unknown offer timeline is that sellers respect buyers offers.

Since late 2020/2021, the inventory has been very low in most secondary home markets. Most owners do not want to be sellers. Sometimes, it’s because they can’t find a replacement property where they might move to. As something sells, little new comes on market to take its place.

The Gulf Islands are also under the Islands Trust form of governance, and that “preserve and protect” mandate (in place since 1974) controlled growth and maintained low inventory, beyond market forces. So, low inventory continues to be a factor at this very beginning of November.

In 2021, post-pandemic, there was a rush to seek safer, more self-sufficient areas (as in rural) to move to…”over ask” bidding wars became a feature. Inventory diminished. Prices rose. Generally, without further rises, prices have remained relatively stable since then. As the Bank of Canada has offered serious interest rate cuts in 2024, we may start to see some cautious buyers re-emerging. In 2022/23, buyers were reluctant to act. If seeking a move-in ready residential property below one million, then strata townhomes remain as the main option on Salt Spring…or else it’s undeveloped land and build.

The currency concerns (diminishing purchasing power of our Canadian Dollar) remain and buying real estate in unique areas is also seen as a preservation of capital decision. There have been some oceanfront sales in the two and three million range for residential this Fall, and this may reflect that investment buyer activity.

 

Mixed messages then, in 2024’s real estate market. Projections from “big box” companies are calling for an improving trend and busier sales, in 2025. It’s a difficult call to project into 2025, based on the haphazard 2024 patterns.

Interest rate cuts will have an effect, but it’s an unknown as to the degree of same. Are regular consumers still concerned about cost of living, of job security (what will be the real effect of AI?), of immigration pressures on housing, of continuing lack of housing? And so on…. Lots of questions and without serious answers the consumer may continue to rest on the sidelines.

Traditionally, though, lack of inventory and strong buyer desire do result in price escalation, and this trend remains in place at this very beginning of November.

 

Meantime, in spite of many concerns globally, and worries about election outcomes, the great Pacific Northwest Coast offers beauty at any season. November may sing the song of grey, but it also reminds us that it’s a month to allow us to step back into ourselves for a moment, to remember the fallow field opportunity (time to replenish our roots), and to enjoy the serenity of a quieter time. A little “mulling” never hurt anyone.

November: let’s pick a rainy day, meet a friend for lunch, watch the drizzle slide against windows, blurring the Harbour views… floatplanes chortling in and out, seal slithering past docks, boats straining at anchor, eagle hunched on a cedar branch, pondering…the amazing “wet coast” smiles hello.

It’s November. Enjoy!

October 2024 – Market Analysis – Salt Spring Island

The Real Estate Market in Fall

October arrives with harvest season fully in play, with shorter days, crisper nights, and star-watching as the winter constellation of Orion climbs up the sky. Special events at ArtSpring, gallery openings in Ganges, Parks and Recreation offerings at the indoor pool, and the Canadian Thanksgiving Holiday Weekend mid-month.

The real estate market is also fully in play with the Fall Market (often called the “second Spring”). People may have viewed opportunities earlier and now have decided to offer. In some cases, new listings pop up as owners who chose to enjoy another summer have now listed for Fall. It’s a buoyant time.

Market Trends and Buyer Hesitation


Low inventory continues. Although the summer season (June, July, August) was quiet in sales across Canada, prices remained stable. The BOC (Bank of Canada) interest rate cuts (three so far) have not generated a corresponding buyer action. Buyers are still hesitant.

If a buyer needs to stay under a million on Salt Spring, the choice is a townhome. A single-family home requires one to consider a purchase in the range of 1.1 to 1.45 million, and this range will most likely require upgrades or renovations. To find a ready-to-go home, one will need to consider a price range between 1.6 and 2.1 million. Waterfront options are higher. If upgrades are needed, oceanfront listings can be found in the 1.7 to 2.3 million range. A ready-to-go waterfront home will most likely fall between 2.5 and 3.8 million. Estate properties are higher.

Post-Pandemic Real Estate Landscape

The rush to leave urban for rural, following the pandemic closures in 2020, created higher prices and low inventory. 2021 was characterized by many “over ask” and unconditional offers. Despite pauses in 2022 and 2023, prices remained stable and inventory low.

Projections call for continuing price stability and low inventory as we look toward 2025 and beyond. As long as the housing shortage persists and immigration grows, the economic reality of low supply leading to high prices will continue. Government efforts to address the housing crisis have not worked so far.

Lifestyle and Ownership Opportunities


Although a Gulf Island purchase might have been recreational several years ago, it is now mainly a lifestyle choice, and people plan to live year-round where they buy. The Islands Trust form of governance (in place since 1974) also keeps inventory low. Growth has been controlled through severe zoning and bylaw restrictions.

It’s interesting that an increase in renovations since 2020 is another reason for price increases. Owners are increasing the value of their properties, whether they sell them or not.

So, here we are, at the very beginning of October. Many consider the early part of Fall one of the loveliest seasons on the great Pacific Northwest Coast. It’s a good time to visit, explore opportunities for a purchase, and discover the many elements that make up the unique Gulf Islands/Salt Spring Island lifestyle: agriculture, arts, alternative health options, respect for and enjoyment of the natural world.

Already here? Be a visitor in your own backyard. Wanting to be here? Let’s explore ownership possibilities. Consider a land purchase and investigate new manufactured home options (recent changes in construction techniques can benefit buyers). What about shared ownership? A lawyer can explain the various ways to benefit from shared ownership with family or friends. Is it for you?

Meantime, October welcomes the harvest bounty of this dynamic time of year. Enjoy!

September 2024 – Market Analysis – Salt Spring Island

September smiles its welcome

Here we are, at the very beginning of September.

A month that holds both late Summer and early Fall in its calendar, and enjoys the harvest season largesse. Farmers Markets, Fall Fairs, farmgate stands…restaurants showcasing the bounty of local farms…it is a time of delicious enjoyment of the “season of mists and mellow fruitfulness” (as beautifully described by the English Romantic poet, John Keats).

September Trend Lines

And what about the trend lines of the real estate market in our secondary home/recreational marketplace? Inventory remains low (as soon as one looks at type and price, one sees this) and strong interest from urban dwellers in moving to rural regions (a desire to be apart and self-sufficient) continues. A desire to preserve capital (the value of currencies) remains a factor for some real estate investor buyers.

Buyers have been cautious throughout the Summer months. The two interest rate cuts from Bank of Canada did not encourage sales. A third cut is expected in early September. This cautious reaction was seen throughout Canada in July and most of August.

What is the Main Buyer Profile on Salt Spring

The main buyer profile on Salt Spring and the Gulf Islands continues to be from Vancouver/Lower Mainland. Outcomes in Vancouver create outcomes in the recreational/rural areas. Pauses there create pauses locally. A Fall Market (often called a Second Spring) has long been a feature of Salt Spring and Gulf Islands sales activity. We are just starting into this usual local trend. It may take till early November to see accomplished outcomes.

The lack of inventory is projected by CMHC (Canadian Mortgage & Housing) to continue for several years…strong immigration and years of inadequate residential development combine to keep real estate pricings high. Although governments have brought in measures to alleviate this lack of product, their mainly negative attempts have not worked, to date. The Islands Trust form of governance (in place since 1974) also keeps growth curtailed on the Gulf Islands.

A Sellers or Buyers Market?

So…the long term issues in place continue to keep prices higher and product options low. There are fits and starts rhythms, but overall the market has remained even. It could still be described as a sellers market. There are always opportunities for a savvy buyer, however, regardless of trend in play.

We enter September with the amazing Fall Fair (two days on Salt Spring) awaiting our pleasure. Don’t miss this annual event, mid-month. Labour Day holiday weekend is followed by back to school. The arts community showcases receptions and openings…check the Ganges galleries, and ArtSpring. Catch ArtCraft before its seasonal closure. Live music venues continue…pop into the Visitors Centre for the latest on events. Shorter days, cooler mornings/evenings and warm summer afternoons…kayaking discoveries of our marine lifestyles…perfect star-watching time in early evenings.

September is also a time to enjoy visits to all the Gulf Islands…it’s the softer season. Feed the body and the soul. Be a tourist in your own backyard, and rediscover the gems that make up the acclaimed Southern Gulf Islands/Salt Spring Island.

September smiles its welcome…enjoy!