March 2025 – Market Analysis – Salt Spring Island

March 2025 – Market Analysis – Salt Spring Island

Wow…it’s meteorological Spring today, the first of March. This begins the seasonality that is treasured on the great Pacific Northwest Coast: early Spring, Spring, Summer, early Fall. March Break (mid-March) to Canadian Thanksgiving (mid-October) are key seasons for Salt Spring and the Gulf Islands.

Real Estate Market Trends

The islands real estate market continues to follow the trends of the past two plus years: lack of inventory and relatively stable pricing. The main buyer profile has continued to be a Vancouver/Lower Mainland purchaser.

The reasons for seeking a Gulf Islands/Salt Spring Island property are two-fold: one, a desire to leave urban for rural (to be self-sufficient). There also continues to be an interest in preservation of capital through a real estate purchase in a unique area…emphasizing a currency concern.

There is not a lot of choice for a buyer. Most owners are not wanting to be sellers. There is always opportunity, though, and some buyers may need to consider shared ownership models as a way into a market that rarely sees first time buyers.

Islands Trust

The outcome of the Islands Trust governance model (put in place in 1974, by the provincial government) was to cap growth through strict zoning/bylaws restrictions. It’s important for buyers to read about the Islands Trust online…to pay attention to those bylaws/zoning restrictions…and to also look at the Official Community Plan and to Development Permit Area restrictions. These can supersede the original bylaws. It’s important to understand the community “rules” before buying.

Current Listings

At the moment, there are approximately 95 listings (all property types…residential, land, commercial) on the MLS system. In a more balanced market, there would be around 380 listings. Lack of inventory remains the issue, and can lead to buyer hesitations.

2024 saw the beginning of many societal changes and 2025 appears to be continuing these shifts. It can be both alarming and energizing, when one encounters serious changes. We don’t get to choose our “time”, though…just our reaction to it.

The current referencing to potential U.S. reciprocal tariffs has reminded Canadians of their inability to trade between provinces. This is something that needs to be done. The lack of this has nothing to do with outside tariffs. It makes no sense to keep provinces isolated from each other, economically.

In B.C., business groups have recently come up with a plan to support economic pro-growth options. They point out that both provincially and federally there have been no-growth policies for at least a decade and that has nothing to do with outside tariffs either. Hmmmm……

The flexing of U.S. policies that emphasize that country’s outcomes could also benefit Canada’s rethink about our own dynamics. So many talented Canadians may have moved south in past years, as Canada did not offer the same opportunities. What were our governments doing?

The concern over the impact of proposed reciprocal tariffs, from our biggest trading partner, has brought forward many different “forecasts” about the economy, going forward. Real estate is one of the pillars of economic health in Canada, and the spectrum of current forecasts ranges from “we will continue to see slow growth” to “we will see a correction/downturn”. Many scenarios talk about a softening of sales and lowering of prices, with an improving trend in 2028.

These are the same people who were insisting that the covid shutdowns of early 2020 would cause a crash and then we ended late 2020/into 2021 with “over ask” bidding wars and an erasing of inventory…plus dramatic price increases.

Our lower dollar is attracting interested U.S. buyers…although the federal government ban on foreign buyers (brought in on January 1, 2023 and put in place until January 1, 2025…then extended till January 1, 2027) may be in place, there are many exemptions and it doesn’t apply to land or to commercial options. (The ban was brought in to help solve the lack of housing dilemma).

Lots to be concerned about…this month we will find out who will replace Trudeau and also whether there will be an early federal election. We will hear the budget from the provincial government and learn about their plan to create economic strength for B.C. The question of tariffs will be answered. And so forth and so on….. It is difficult to point to a trend at this exact moment. It may take until late April or mid-May to understand the tone of the 2025 market.

Meantime: it’s a good plan to take advantage of this seasonal awakening, to enjoy the beauties of the natural world that are erupting all around us, to remember to get out and about (beachcombing, hiking, picnics, tastings, al fresco dining, farmers markets, kayaking, art gallery openings, spa retreats, sailing adventures, theatre discoveries, and day trips to companion islands….in other words, to remember to live…and to simply and calmly breathe).

Opportunity always exists…we just need to be looking. And your thoughts are? Always welcome!

February 2025 – Market Analysis – Salt Spring Island

 

Lovely February, usually a traditional coastal reminder of the The threat of 25% tariffs on Canadian goods, proposed by the U.S. President, has resulted in a “pause” for 30 days.

 

Salt Spring Island

In this timeline, Canada will be required to show a serious response to the border issues of people illegally crossing into U.S., and also the passing of fentanyl into the U.S. from Canada. The Canadian government has taken solid measures to do this.

A similar response to the 25% proposed tariffs on Mexico, for southern U.S. border, also resulted in a 30 day pause.

Canada

It is essential that Canada would look into protecting its citizens from both illegal immigration and fentanyl drugs, quite apart from the U.S. request. This may be a long overdue response from the Canadian government, working on behalf of Canadians.

Meantime, there is a sense that a rupture of good relations between the U.S. and Canada occurred. That kind of easy trust may take time to rebuild. That said, it’s important to keep strong connections.

Inter-provincial trade is long overdue

However, the much vaunted idea of inter-provincial trade is long overdue. If this is the outcome of the initial tariff threat, that is definitely something that each province needs to address. If not done, then the provinces have misunderstood the importance of such a shift.

After a few days, while the dust settles, I will comment on current local market conditions and note any repercussions. Keep an eye, meantime, on our currency.

February 2025 – Preview – Market Analysis

Salt Spring Island

Salt Spring Island

Lovely February, usually a traditional coastal reminder of the coming Spring, is visiting our coastal region wearing its Winter face. An Arctic Front is being forecast, with significant snow for Vancouver Island and the Gulf Islands. No one is ever ready for this weather downturn, especially after a Spring-like January. That said, it might only last a week…definitely a soft version of a real Winter.

It’s difficult to suggest a usual first day of a new month market report, this time around. Threatened tariffs from U.S. will affect Canada if put in place. February 1st was stated as the date they would kick in. As soon as an outcome is known, will make my “early month report”.

Meantime, listing inventory remains exceedingly low. Prices have remained relatively stable. After two and a half years of buyer inaction, sales did slowly begin in last quarter of 2024, with projections that this activity would continue in 2025.

The tariff issue with Canada’s largest trading partner is the wild card item. More later!

January Mid-Market Update – Early 2025, Salt Spring

Real estate markets are not static items…they change (and the shifts can be rapid), as different elements come to the fore.

Renewed Sales

2024 saw renewed sales in October, November, December…with projections for 2025 mentioning continuing low inventory and potential for resulting price increases.

Since then, the early days of 2025 have seen the prime minister stepping down, a Liberal party seeking a leader replacement, an understanding that all this will result in a Spring federal election.

At the same time, the incoming president of the U.S., our biggest trading partner, appears to be serious about his 25% tariff hit for Canada. The premiers are not of one voice re response, and B.C.’s premier acknowledges that such tariffs would decimate the B.C. economy. Meantime, absence of leader/prime minister role federally means no unified voice for negotiations.

Markets do not like uncertainty.

These early days of 2025 are showing mixed signals and it may take until late April or May to see coherent outcomes in real estate activity.

The diminishing value of the Canadian dollar might be one reason owners are not wanting to be sellers…as a way of preserving capital through a real estate investment.

The Bank of Montreal (BMO) is stating that real estate outcomes may not improve markedly until 2029. Different reasons are given. Again, projections and trends can change quickly in any market driven sector and these concepts are not static reports…it is opinion.

Meantime, low inventory & buyer reluctance make it difficult for marketing decisions by realtors…and various marketing venues are noting less uptake.
The year has opened with unexpected shifts…always interesting.

Questions/comments? Look forward to hearing from you.

January 2025 – Market Analysis – Salt Spring Island

January, 2025

Here we are, at the very beginning of a New Year. Past and future mingle.

Named for the Roman god Janus, a deity with two faces, one looking behind and the other gazing forward, January offers us both the immediate past and hopes for the future.

Real Estate Review

2024 closed with extraordinary and continuing low real estate inventory. Serious interest rate cuts did help to create renewed sales action in October, November, December. Prices stabilized. Projections for real estate were all suggesting that price escalation would occur in 2025 and inventory would continue to remain low.

It takes until March Break to see the tone of a new year, in our secondary home/recreational marketplace. What we do know: the low inventory means lack of choice for buyers. It encourages action when a buyer sees a possibility and it may mean having to offer close to list price or “over ask”. It may also encourage the reverse, inducing a wait and see pause, similar to the outcomes in 2022, 2023, and early 2024. Stable pricing and lack of product do not necessarily create strong sales. Buyers can also tread water.

Global Factors

So many global events and changes make it difficult to call projections. A low Canadian dollar against the U.S. currency may bring strong tourism from the U.S. The federal ban on foreign ownership (currently until January, 2027) makes it difficult for U.S. buyers to invest (once a strong buyer profile in all the Gulf Islands). There are many exceptions to this ban on foreign purchases…important to check into these.

Wars and rumours of wars persist. Diminished purchasing power of the Canadian currency is worrisome. The true effect of Artificial Intelligence has not been fully understood. A new president takes office in the U.S., and Canadian outcomes are often framed by decisions taken with its biggest trading partner. Pressure to call a federal election is gathering interest from the other parties. The provincial government has put off a legislative sitting until February, and requires an arrangement with the two elected Greens to offer governance.

Navigating Change

Change, change…everywhere a change….yes, we can all hum away to this 1960s tune. January opens with significant shifts. Time to attend seminars and webinars on financial projections…time to listen a lot…time to value again the hard asset protections, the preservation of capital, offered by good real estate holdings.

If an owner, is it a time to sit tight? Unless one knows next steps, one might sell and then not find a replacement…becoming houseless is a real issue. If a buyer, is it time to buy what may need work, but will escalate in value over time? Younger buyers might be wise to consider “sweat equity” concepts. Or think about creative co-ownership opportunities. Thinking in-depth is a good way to navigate the first six weeks of a New Year.

Looking Forward

So, it’s January…mid-winter in our coastal area. Every day is a few seconds longer and the slow march to Spring is underway. Tiny shoots of green are visible in protected corners of gardens and fields. It may look severe above ground, but at that root level it is busy getting ready for Spring’s eruption. A good reminder that we have the opportunity to consider planning for changes, too.

It’s January…time to segue into new things…at this truly New Year. And your plan is? Share.

December 2024 – Market Analysis – Salt Spring Island

December introduces Winter. We are a four seasons region.

Although the calendar says it starts around the 20th, let’s remember that meteorological Winter starts on December 1st.

  • Craft Fairs:
    • WinterCraft at Mahon Hall
    • Beaver Point annual craft fair
    • Fulford Hall annual craft fair

    Welcome one at the very beginning of December.

  • The Ganges Galleries are showcasing their amazingly talented artists.
  • The excellent restaurants and coffee stops are treating patrons to special menus.
  • Winter Wander (shop late)
  • Glowtini
  • Village Light-Up
  • Farmgate stands light-up tour
  • Holiday windows in the Village

Lots to enjoy as the season wears its festive face.

Real Estate on Salt Spring in December, 2024

Real estate in December? Well, yes. It seems that the seasonality of previous years has gone. The market now appears to be “always”. In our secondary home/recreational marketplace, potential buyers can turn up anytime.


Sometimes, with knowledge of the area, buyers purposely choose late Fall and Winter seasons…the idea being that if a property looks great in November or January, then they know it will be incredible in July. Sometimes, it just takes time to get all their ducks in a row (sale of a city property, financing in place, decision for a Gulf Island destination, and so on). Listing in Winter, with less options on market to catch a buyer’s attention, can prove to be a “smart cookie” choice.


Some trends remain: very low inventory (most owners do not want to be sellers), relatively stable pricings, and projections that recent interest rate cuts by BOC (Bank of Canada) will propel the real estate market forward in 2025.

Should I Buy Now?

Side-line sitters, from 2022 to Fall 2024, are deciding that they would be wise to act now…before a projected Spring uptick. Those concerned about currency fluctuations might be choosing to see real estate as a way to preserve capital. Generally, the move from urban to rural continues to be a strong motivator for action. Geopolitical concerns might also generate interest in living in quieter/”apart” places.

Looking for specific opportunities to buy? Contact me. Look forward to helping you to discover your Salt Spring Island and Gulf Island special property, and to consider creative solutions for a successful purchase.


Thinking of selling? I look forward to discussing my several marketing opportunities with you…both digital and targeted print. There is no local market on a Gulf Island…it’s essential to successfully get the information out to the wider world. Look forward to hearing from you.

Meantime: it’s December. Time to enjoy traditions, lights, music, special foods, memories (old and new). Catch seasonal events at ArtSpring. Enjoy a holiday lunch or dinner with friends. Take time to meander Ganges and Fulford Villages…lights sparkling in late afternoon are magical. Santa arrives, remember…be there to welcome him. Whether with children or not, it is a season that invites us to be a part of that special sense of wonder. It’s December. Enjoy!