October 2010 | Market Analysis

Thoughts….

Interesting that the man, who shorted the housing market two years before the housing collapse in Fall, 2008, is now suggesting that the U.S. housing market has bottomed, and that two years from now prices will have doubled, and rampant inflation will be with us.

Wish I knew where that crystal ball was located!

At a recent international real estate conference that I attended, realtors from other secondary home/discretionary areas, including hard hit Spain, were noting that tiny baby steps of uptick in sales volume were being detected…just since end of August, so it’s very recent, indeed.

Some saavy and major developers, in Canadian cities, are also newly targeting early Spring as going to be very different, on an upward momentum, for sales volume if not prices, in spite of continuing media reports of impending double dip concerns for the U.S. economy, over supply of inventory in many sunbelt states, and jobless numbers increasing.

A recent Time Magazine (U.S. Edition) article drew attention to parallel universes in economic conditions: digital worlds (iphone 4, ipad, etc) being one kind of Jobs report, and manufacturing aspects being an opposite jobs report. One more example of the schism between the known of the 20th and the unknown of the 21st centuries.

It’s almost a given that what used to work won’t anymore, and what is emerging as the new paradigm will work.

It’s almost a given that what used to work won’t anymore, and what is emerging as the new paradigm will work. This is true of the real estate industry, too. Franchise models are in disarray, the entire mls system in Canada is dramatically changing, for the benefit of consumers, (a.k.a., the “enduser“) and the sacrosanct referral system of old is vanishing as a key element in a real estate agent’s business model

This is true of the real estate industry, too. Franchise models are in disarray, the entire mls system in Canada is dramatically changing, for the benefit of consumers,(a.k.a., the “enduser“) and the sacrosanct referral system of old is vanishing as a key element in a real estate agent’s business model:

It’s a post-internet world, and all businesses are now consumer-centric, not company or agent-centric. A profound shift, and not always clearly understood.

Some things remain unchanged: good service to clients, putting a client’s best interests before one’s own, delivering the best information possible re statistics and trends, giving back to the community…these are essentials and have to do with ethics and personal integrity….

In the binary world of today (on/off, act/react, no time/always time), change occurs quickly/instantaneously. Good, then, to be practicing peripheral vision and not tunnel vision. A breadth of vision allows our creativity to be awakened, and that kind of response will note emerging trends early…a good idea to be looking down the highway, and not in the rear view mirror!

We appear, in our local secondary home/discretionary marketplace, to have been in a “flat market” since early 2006. Between 2002 and 2005, appraisers suggested prices went up 60 percent. Since the economic meltdowns of Fall 2008, appraisers feel that prices have reduced by 30 percent. Buyer reluctance has been a feature of our discretionary market since 2007.

No market remains static…up/down, up/down…it’s a wave rhythm.

It may be that an inflationary threat will encourage hard asset investment, to preserve capital — not about appreciation, then, but about preservation.

So many routes to ponder….

A good idea to be treading water in the economic pool, not fixed to any outcomes, free-floating and thus open to recognizing shifts….

These are “thoughts”, at a potentially “shift” moment…no road map, yet.