Tag Archives: market analysis

Salt Spring Island, November 2022, Market Analysis

What about the real estate market as November begin

November…the season of craft fairs and holiday events. Standard Time returns (Fall back, remember). Shorter days/longer nights…rain, rain/sun mix, golden leaves scratching across pavement, temperatures cooling quickly.

After a 90 day warm and sunny drought, with rivers and creeks so dry the spawning salmon could not fulfill their October cycle, everyone is glad to see November rains appear.

November also brings Remembrance Day…wear your poppy, and if on Salt Spring try to be at the cenotaph for this annual community tribute. Thank you to those who served.

What about the real estate market as November begins? Several years ago, Salt Spring and the Southern Gulf Islands became a Fall Market. Although basically a seasonless marketplace, with buyers arriving throughout the year, there are high point times for sales. Fall is one of them. Late August to year end can be busy.

The Spring/Summer market was a holding pattern

2022 saw a “six weeks late” scenario. Spring was late (remember Juneuary?). The farming community noted that the growing season was six weeks later than usual. This flat-line “pause” seemed to be mirrored in real estate activity. The Spring/Summer market was a holding pattern.
Salt Spring
If 2021 was the year of consistent sales and multiple offers, 2022 has been the year of “maybe”, from a buyer perspective. (Maybe I will decide to buy a property…or maybe I’ll see how things play out. What about interest rate rises? When will there be more inventory to choose from? Will prices go down substantially? Should I act now or wait and see? What about all the chaos globally? Supply chain issues? Wars and rumours of wars? Will renewal of covid shut things down again?). Worry is the background sound of 2022. Uncertainty can create pauses in action.

 

A pause is not a correction

Mount Baker
A series of substantial price reductions took place in late Spring/early Summer, but many of these reduced properties still remained without showings or sales. The six plus week pause in activity was not about price, then. Worry, worry, worry…and worry makes a buyer just tread water. A pause is not a correction.

Lack of supply is the key to market outcomes. The low inventory in properties for sale will continue. Inward migration is also a factor. The flight from urban to rural remains a principal driver of action. Time is a component in most secondary home sales, once again. Media reporting on all markets is always reactive, not predictive. September “reports” might be reflecting June…December will give the picture of September…and so on. The bottom line: lack of supply and desire to buy.

Activity is filling in again

As buyers slowly digest the parameters of this softer marketplace, activity is filling in again. A desire to be safe, and to preserve one’s capital…these are strong reasons for a buyer interest in rural lifestyles. The authentic ability to work from home, via a robust internet, is a further stimulus to a rural decision. To be “apart”, as 2023 unfolds…with its suggestion of further upheaval…perhaps makes good sense.

Ganges

So…November. On Salt Spring and the Gulf Islands? Catch the galleries and craft fairs…special and unique opportunities to “shop local”. Dine out at our amazing and varied restaurants…local produce & talented chefs. Hike the trails around the islands on the finer Fall days. Try a restorative spa ritual. Galleries invite one to enjoy the amazing artistic talent. Remember the value of taking time…a softer season reminds us how to “see”. Maybe join a choral group…or learn line dancing (yes, they still do this). Evening classes offer new discoveries.

Seeking your special Gulf Islands property? Benefit from my knowledge (of trends and inventory) and expertise (managing broker licence). Your best interests are my motivation. I look forward to hearing from you (liread33@gmail.com).

Softer…slower…a different kind of rhythm. Salt Spring smiles its November hello.

Salt Spring Island, October 2022, Market Analysis

October is beginning with a continuing long late summer weather pattern. The beauty of this harvest season is visible everywhere on the Pacific Northwest Coast.

It’s also the civic election time in B.C. (every four years), and it seems that all communities are seeing many people running for only a few seats…many more people are wanting to be involved than there are available spaces.   Salt Spring is no exception.

Usually, civic/community elections are lackluster…it’s provincial and federal elections that capture attention. The community level is very important, as it guides the day to day lives of those who live there. Important to get out and vote. Be informed.

Support the candidate that reflects your views. Those elected will be in place for the next four years.  The Gulf Islands form of governance (Islands Trust) means each island votes for two trustees and also for a CRD director. Apathy is not a choice in 2022.

October is the Canadian Thanksgiving month…an authentic Harvest season. It’s the perfect time to be a visitor on the Gulf Islands.   The micro-climate on these islands supports vineyards, wineries, cideries, farmers markets, and the park hiking/walking trails beckon. Galleries showcase the artistic culture that creates the ambiance of the Gulf Islands.

The real estate market?   Low inventory remains a factor.   Sales do take place in all price ranges.   The frenzy market of 2021 is over, but buyer inquiries remain strong.   Uncertainties create hesitations, but action is still happening.   There are both price reductions and also new listings that come onstream with higher than expected pricings.

The key to all markets is supply and the flight from urban to rural remains a key demand motivator in deciding for a purchase of a country property.   Increased interest rates do affect first time buyers, and hesitations/pauses in action are a feature, but sales activity remains consistent in many secondary home locales.   More information on current listings and sales on Salt Spring Island, as the market evolves?   Contact me for updates.   Thank you.

Meantime: it’s October…a month for star-watching as the days shorten and crisper evenings invite us to watch our skies.   The annual Apple Festival on Salt Spring, the Thanksgiving holiday weekend, the gallery openings and receptions, the ArtSpring events, the switch to Sunday races at the Sailing Club, the Saturday and Tuesday farmers markets, the olive grove and vineyard and apple orchard harvests and creation of new wines/new ciders…this is a time of beauty and the gift of restorative Nature.
The ease of the Fall Season is with us.   Enjoy!

Salt Spring Island, September 2022, Market Analysis

Back to school always signals the end of summer, even though the calendar says Fall is not official till September 20th. In the great Pacific Northwest Coast region, both September and October can be harvest months of tranquil beauty.

Lots happening in September, on delectable Salt Spring: Fall Fair, gallery openings, ArtSpring presentations, live music and patio dining pleasures continue, dine with an inspiring view at one of our amazing restaurants (Auntie Pesto’s, Seaside, Moby’s, Salt Spring Inn, Treehouse, Rock Salt, Hastings House). Farm gate stands, Tuesday Farmers Market, Saturday Market…enjoy the agricultural harvests. Check into the Visitors Centre (a Chamber initiative) to find out what else is happening in serene September.

How about that real estate market? We all realize that 2022 is not the frenzy observed in 2021.

That said, listing inventory on the Gulf Islands remains low. The desire to leave urban for the rural lifestyle remains strong. Most buyers continue to come from Vancouver and they plan to live on the Gulf Island of their choice.
Skywater Acres

Salt Spring offers a year-round lifestyle: has a hospital, 3 elementary and a state of the art senior school, has 3 separate ferries (to Vancouver, to Victoria, to mid-Vancouver Island), and regular sked year-round floatplane service to downtown Vancouver and to the airport.

The Islands Trust – Provincial Body, created 1974

The form of governance on the unincorporated Gulf Islands is a provincial government body created in 1974…to “preserve & protect” the environmental beauties of the islands for the benefit of all B.C. residents. The Islands Trust resulting cap on growth means real estate will always be more expensive as there will always be a limited inventory. Add a frenzy market, as in 2021, on top of the Trust cap on growth, and you get the “over ask” scenario.

What’s Next

The immediate aftermath of overheated markets is generally a flat/pause pattern. The Spring / early Summer Market saw this pause locally in buyer action. Inquiries continued and some viewings did take place, but often there was no resulting offer. Reflecting this “pause” in action, we saw some substantial price reductions from some companies. These aggressive reductions did not lead to sales activity. The pause was not about price.

2022 may end by being characterized as a Fall Market, with sales taking place between mid-August and year end.

Why Should I Buy Real Estate?

It’s important to think about buying a property as a place for personal enjoyment…that you will live there…and not as a type of market investment. Houses are places to reside. If you buy what you like, and resale enters the picture, someone else will also appreciate your choice. Always buy from the heart and not the head. Markets go up and down and go flat…sales continue, always. Timing can be different (slow, fast, balanced), but outcomes continue. To enjoy one’s personal space is the key.

Spring is upon us, Salt spring

So, entering September, we find continuing low inventory. Sales in all property types and price ranges do take place, but the rush to purchase has eased. Price reductions at the point of an offer are also taking place. One might call this a balanced market. Buyer interest in living in a rural environment continues. Working from home is still desired. The rush to buy anything/anywhere is over. Although interest rates are rising, and this does affect first time buyers, transactions continue.

More information on market conditions and projected trends? Call me. Seeking to sell or to buy a property on Salt Spring and the Gulf Islands? I look forward to bringing my knowledge, expertise, and experience to your benefit.

Meantime, beautiful September’s harvest season is here…enjoy.

August 2021, Salt Spring Island Market Analysis

August, The Market Segue

August begins the segue to the Fall Market.

At this very beginning of August, the listing inventory remains extraordinarily low. Unless they have to, most owners do not want to be sellers.

Buyers continue to remain interested in leaving the city and purchasing a rural lifestyle (the outcome of those covid shut-downs).

If they have sold a house, they are looking to buy a house. That said, to keep to a budget requirement, they may consider buying an undeveloped land offering. They might put up a guest cottage, or a modular home, or barge on an older home with Nickel Brothers, and renovate it.

Concerns over inflation and potential interest rate rises are also seemingly driving a hard asset investment purchase. This type of land-banking may be seen as a way to preserve capital.

Can I Work From Home & Live on the Gulf Islands?

Although lip-service was paid in past years to the idea that anyone could work from anywhere, because of the internet, this may not have been true in outlying areas. Now it is true. Another outcome of those covid shut-downs: the turn to online options. Suddenly, everyone is happy with Zoom meetings. Businesses and non-profits turned to online opportunities. Working from home is desired and possible.

Maybe we are now positioned at the very beginning of the “real 21st Century”? It will be interesting to see what’s in place at this time next year. Voids like to be filled. Now that everyone is able to be online, in some form or other, new ways to market, to connect, to “be”, will start to fill in. An exciting time? Yes!

Meantime, at this very beginning of August, we find 50 residential listings, not separating out homes, townhouses, waterfront, view, farm. Seven of these are strata townhomes that will not be built until next year.

  • 22 of these are listed between 420,000 and 998,000
  • There are 15 listings between 1,149,000 and 1,890,000
  • There are 8 listings between 2,125,000 and 2,995,000
  • One listing at 3,985,000
  • One listing at 4,488,000
  • One listing at 6,688,800
  • One listing at 11,975,000
  • Two listings at 14,000,000

There are 33 land listings, not separating out lots, acreages, view, waterfront, farm.

They are priced between 232,500 and 2,495,000.

  • There have been 189 “solds to date”, at this very beginning of August
  • 135 sales were below one million
  • 43 sales were between 1 and 2 million
  • Six sales were between 2 & 3 million
  • Two sales were between 3 and 4 million
  • Three sales were between 5 and 6 million

A Strong Sellers Market

It remains a strong sellers market. With the continuing low inventory in all property types & price points, there are both bidding wars in existing listings and asking price escalation in anything new to the market.

Real estate is a market, with the same dynamics as any other market driven economy. Buyers set the pace, not sellers or realtors. At this time, strong buyer desire is coupled with owners who do not want to be sellers…a recipe for continuing seller market conditions.

The Islands Trust & Inventory on Salt Spring Island

Salt Spring is a part of the Islands Trust, set in place by the provincial government in 1974. The non-growth policies of the Trust mean that there will always be limited inventory on any Gulf Island. This is beyond market trend.

So: the market speaks to buyer interest, causing diminishing inventory, on an island that has capped growth, through the Trust’s severe zoning/bylaw protections….hmmm….

More information on trends and listings? Call me! Let’s explore potential purchasing opportunities.

Thinking of selling? Discover my award-winning presentation that does encourage serious buyer interest.

Meanwhile…August. A time of fruition. Enjoy farmers markets, farm gate stands, special menus at our delicious restaurants, cider tastings, wine tastings…hiking/walking trails beckon…kayaking, paddle boarding, whale watching, sailing races…swimming in lakes and in the sea…shorter days mean earlier star watching (August brings annual meteor showers)….so much to see and to do…it’s still summer-summer. Enjoy!

April 2021, Salt Spring Island Market Analysis

Here we are at April 1st. The beginning of real Spring. Early April mirrors March…late April is a forerunner of amazing May. April is a shift month.

Salt Spring Island

Salt Spring Island

 

Salt Spring Island, A Unique & Creative Space to Call Home

Whatever the season or weather pattern, beautiful Salt Spring and the Southern Gulf Islands welcome one…these islands nestled in the Salish Sea are unique and creative spaces to call home.

Is It Easy to Move to Salt Spring Island?

Real estate in the Gulf Islands is always slightly apart from larger market trends. The form of governance in these islands is a provincial government body known as the Islands Trust.

Created in 1974 by the government, to “preserve and protect” the environmental beauties of the islands for the benefit of all B.C. residents, the Trust has curtailed growth (via strict zoning/bylaws). This effective cap on growth ensured that the Gulf Islands would remain these lovely park-like entities.

A cap on growth means that, over time, these islands will become enclave areas that one will have to be able to afford…already, they are not entry level pricing areas. First time buyers are not usual, without family help.

Mount Baker

Mount Baker

What was B.C.’s response to covid?

B.C.’s first response to covid was to shut down/require people to stay at home. A ten week covid closure was in place by March 12/20. Around June 23/20, restrictions were softly lifted and Immediately a strong real estate sales pattern clicked into place. The allure of a rural lifestyle was the theme.

Starting with entry level residential and then including affordable lots/acreages, the inventory thinned out and price points on Salt Spring began to rise…“bidding wars” occurred by mid-February 2021. Around late February/early March 2021, the higher end/luxury properties segment caught sales interest.

The Vancouverite Migration

Almost all buyers were from Vancouver and they were wanting to live permanently on Salt Spring. Sale prices to date range from 199,000 to 5,645,000. The volume of sales to the end of March now match an entire year’s sales in previous recent times.

So, at this very beginning of April, we have 39 residential properties listed. Townhomes, waterfront, view, farms are not separated out…it’s just residential/dwellings.

  • 15 listings are between 349,000 and 995,000.
  • There are 13 listings between 1,069,000 and 1,985,000.
  • There are currently 5 listings between 2 million and 2,699,900. One listing is at 4,995,000.
  • There is a listing at 5,995,000.
  • A farm parcel is listed at 6,688,800.
  • An acreage is asking 12,000,000
  • a waterfront acreage is on at 14,000,000.
  • A waterfront farm is asking 14,000,000.

We have 45 land listings at this very beginning of April, again not separating out type…just undeveloped land options. Prices range from 239,000 to 2,495,000

  • There have been 77 solds to date
  • There were 58 sales below one million
  • 14 sales between one and two million
  • 4 sales between two and three million
  • and one sale over five million

This extraordinarily thin inventory of listings is partly due to strong buyer action. It also reflects owner reluctance to be a seller. Unless they “have to” sell, most owners are choosing to “hold”.

Salt Spring Island

Salt Spring Island

A Hyperbolic Market

One recent scenario: one entry level priced listing and twelve buyers for it, resulting in a listing agent stating a time for all offers to be presented, no ability for a buyers agent to present their offer, the offers all seen by the seller at same time and a choice then made. This kind of outcome is why many buyers put in unconditional offers and also why the offers are “over ask”. It’s a hyperbolic market everywhere. Salt Spring is no exception. Will it last? Ah…the key question.

A Lifestyle Rewrite

The lifestyle rewrite in this post-pandemic moment is the main propeller to rural real estate activity, throughout B.C. Vancouver sellers remain the main buyers in all the secondary home venues. Recreating a life script is a strong motivator to action and this does not seem to have run its course…perhaps it’s just beginning?

Salt Spring Island & Land Banking

Also to be considered: the desire for safe hard asset investment, as a way to preserve capital in an era of printing press currencies and fears of inflation. Land banking is one such outcome. Current low interest rates invite buyer ability to buy. The societal shift to all things digital and the “work from home” ethic have become mainstream, which allows a rural move. Everything seems to have coalesced…the perfect storm, if you will.

Lack of inventory may continue for some time. An outcome will be serious price escalation.

There is always opportunity, no matter the background noise of daily events.

Are you thinking of selling? Call me…I look forward to sharing my knowledge of this current sellers market trend. You may decide to “hold”…you may decide to sell. “Of the moment” market knowledge is essential to make that important decision. I look forward to connecting with you. As a top selling agent, I bring to your benefit my expertise, plus creative and productive marketing solutions (local and global), and a solid understanding of the sale process.

March 2021, Salt Spring Island Market Analysis

First Whispers of “The Season”

It’s here…the month that sees the segue from winter-into-spring. Gulf Islanders/Salt Springers recognize March as the month that brings the first whispers of “the season”.

Mid-March to mid-October is often seen as the best weather time in the great Pacific Northwest Coast, and Salt Spring and the Southern Gulf Islands benefit from a “cool Mediterranean” micro-climate. Less rainfall/more hours of sunshine…a welcome temperate pattern.

Even with the ongoing closures and pauses and delays of covid, this time of year brings with it a special enjoyment…that awakening of the earth that Spring delivers. Gardens and orchards and roadside bushes flower forward. Longer days. Sun warmth at patio coffee stops. Beauty everywhere.

The real estate market on Salt Spring is now mirroring the same explosion of sales first experienced in Vancouver and then fanning out to Sunshine Coast, to the Interior, to Victoria, and to Vancouver Island. Now it is occurring on Salt Spring and on the Gulf Islands.

The inventory of listings is shockingly low.

Most buyers are still from Vancouver. There are now multiple offers and “bidding wars” in some price ranges. Buyers do have to put their best foot forward.

Hastings House

Hastings House

The Vancouver sellers do become the buyers in all the rural/secondary home markets. The Vancouver market, which did suppress between 2017 and 2019, because of provincial government taxation measures to do so, is perhaps being driven by sales to Hong Kong based residents, with Canadian passports. These buyers ignore the provincial 20% offshore purchase tax.

It appears to be a lifestyle rewrite that is underway.

Many things are occurring: the initial covid shut-downs in 2020 pushed everyone into the digital world. The ability to work from home is now accepted as mainstream. Extraordinarily low interest rates. A desire to leave the city. A concern over all the monies being printed by governments…the seeking of preservation of capital by turning to hard asset investments. Hmmm…a perfect storm? Maybe.

Sales Data March 2021

So, at this very beginning of March, there are 31 residential listings on Salt Spring Island, not separating out waterfront, view, townhome.

  • 11 of these residential listings are between 445,000 and 998,000
  • 9 listings between 1,069,000 and 1,985,000
  • One listing at 3,100,000
  • One listing at 4,995,000
  • One listing at 5,995,000
  • One listing at 6,688,800
  • One listing at 12,000,000
  • Two listings at 14,000,000

Only 11 fall into the category of “entry level” pricings. Hmmm….. usually there might be over 200 residential listings available. This is a sellers market.

At this very beginning of March, there are 49 land listings, ranging from 239,900 to 2,495,000. (Not separating out lots, acreages, view, waterfront). Land listings up to 500,000 remain the most active, at this moment.

At this very beginning of March, there have been 51 “solds to date”. That is a huge increase in sales in the first two months of the year.

  • Seven sales have been between 199,000 and 298,000
  • Four sales have been between 430,000 and 455,000
  • Six sales have been between 505,000 and 552,000
  • Ten sales have been between 605,000 and 685,000
  • Four sales were between 730,000 and 799,000
  • Three sales were between 800,000 and 878,500
  • Five sales took place between 900,000 and 979,000
  • Eleven sales took place between 1,015,000 and 1,850,000
  • One sale took place at 5,645,000

For the first time in several years, consistent high end sales are underway. It appears that the Vancouver buyers plan to live on Salt Spring…these are not recreational only buyers.

Not Since 9/11

The entry level residential options and the lower priced land options have all sold. The last time we saw a lifestyle rewrite was after 9-11. Between 2003 and 2006, there were few listings and prices rose by 60%. However, at that time, owners, who may have wanted to cash out, did start to slowly list.

Salt Spring Island Coast

Salt Spring Island Coast

Right now, though, with the faceless potential killer of covid still with us, most owners want to sit tight. Where would they go? Salt Spring and the Gulf Islands offer the allure of safety, in their cohesive apartness. The arrival of consistent vaccinations may be the solution to this treading water time.

Still on Hold, Virtually

Meantime, March sings its way through our lives and the Gulf Islands are offering virtual reminders of their pleasures. Loved events will be on hold until next year, as the provincial government prohibition on gatherings continues. It’s interesting, that virtual connection. Neither good nor not good…just different.

Meantime, on Salt Spring, hike the Mt Erskine Trail, picnic at Ruckle Park, watch the floatplanes chortle in and out in Ganges Harbour, enjoy a coffee break on a patio or deck (many to choose from…try them all), sunset watch from Vesuvius Beach, kayak out to Chocolate Island beach, and always always follow the protocols and support local.

Salt Spring and the Gulf Islands swim enticingly in the Salish Sea. Their welcome is always there.