Tag Archives: market analysis

Market Analysis, April 2018, Salt Spring Island

April 2018, Salt Spring

Welcome to my world!

I am lucky to be able to live and to work on Salt Spring Island. I hope you enjoyed this video by a Vancouver based travel writer…who hopes to one day also live on Salt Spring. I thought he caught the essence of this magical place.

April is perhaps the true beginning of our real estate market “season”. Whispers of the year’s tone can appear around March Break, but the main action becomes evident by April.

We entered Spring with a very thin inventory of listings, in both residential and undeveloped land options. A lack of inventory, coupled with renewed buyer desire, does result in price escalation…the economic dynamic of supply and demand.

The “Speculation Tax” in the BC Real Estate Market

There can be interruptions to a market flow…the suggested speculation tax mentioned in the provincial government’s February budget appeared to be about to become such a non-market interruption. However, in late March, the government agreed to exempt the Gulf Islands from this tax. Initially, the capital regional district boundaries had put the speculation (vacancy tax) onto the Southern Gulf Islands, too.

The Islands Trust (the form of governance since 1974, on the Gulf Islands) created a secondary home/recreational/discretionary region.

Lack of affordable housing and work-rental choices are issues everywhere…Salt Spring’s approved affordable housing projects are not able to proceed because of a CRD water moratorium. The CRD needs to address this. More info? Call me.

April is an interesting month…it starts with the cool of March and ends with the largesse of almost-May. Every day is longer, softer temperatures encourage “real Spring” to energize us, and the exterior world welcomes us back.

Inventory

Whether inventory grows again and stabilizes prices or whether inventory remains thin and prices start to rise, Salt Spring and the Southern Gulf Islands remain their serenely beautiful selves…and with some creative thinking, it is always possible to seek ownership. Some ideas? Call me! There is always opportunity.

We live in a time of shift. Salt Spring and the Southern Gulf Islands enjoy proximity to major centres…they are apart but are not isolated.

Artificial Intelligence brings new technological benefits to our lives. The Gulf Islands, including Salt Spring Island, are time tunnels to previous times. Frozen by the 1974 Islands Trust mandate (“to preserve and protect” the environmental beauties of the Gulf Islands, for the benefit of all B.C. residents), the islands are all about direct experience of the natural world.

Salt Spring welcomes you to enjoy its parks, hiking/walking trails, farmgate organic produce, farmers markets, winery tastings, cheesemaker farm, art galleries, studio tours, live music venues, theatre experiences, marine discoveries…spas, alternative health opportunities, yoga retreats…great restaurants to tempt the palate…feed the body, the mind, the soul on these tranquil Gulf Islands.

Market Analysis, March 2018, Salt Spring Island

March 2018, Salt Spring

Salt Spring Island

Salt Spring Island

March…it brings with it “real Spring” (the one marked on the calendar), plus is the beginning of our main grid of sales activity.

Beginning of the Canadian Market Season

March Break to the Canadian Thanksgiving Weekend (mid-October) signals our “season” in our secondary home/discretionary/recreational region.

The busiest months are July, August, September, of course, and these months also encompass high tourist season, but holiday weekends in earlier months, and school holidays (March Break), begin the rhythms.

March is beginning with very little inventory for sale. High buyer demand (in the entry level residential segment) continued throughout January/February, in spite of weather hesitations. There may be some few new listings yet to come onstream, but there is much less choice for a buyer.

The definition of a buyer’s market: lots of listings and very few buyers. A seller’s market? Few listings and many buyers. This scenario often leads to higher list and sale prices.

Sellers and listing agents do not set markets. Buyers do that. Strong buyer demand and few purchase choices create rising values. The economic maxim of supply and demand is a real one.

There are always opportunities for a buyer in a seller’s market. If interested in a property, though, one must be prepared to act. Bidding wars are rare on a Gulf Island…but back-up offers do come into play.

How will new tax affect real estate market?

The new coalition provincial government raised the offshore purchase tax to 20%, at their February budget. It still applies to metro-Vancouver, but now will also apply to Victoria, to Nanaimo, and to Kelowna. For Salt Spring, many buyers are from Vancouver and the Lower Mainland. Will the tax create a hesitation in sales there, as the initial tax did in August, 2016? Those sellers in Vancouver have become many of our Island buyers.

The provincial government is stating that they are bringing in empty home taxes, in an effort to stop speculation…in their words: to stop people treating the housing market as a stock market. They tie this to the affordable housing crunch, which is a feature of all communities, but this also involves the B.C. Tenancy Act (many people choose not to rent their homes).

I write these market updates at the beginning of each month, and do updates via my blog, as the month proceeds. Check out my blog for March 1st. It gives the Vancouver Real Estate Board’s recap of the February Budget. There is some confusion right now, but the offshore purchase tax (at the moment) only applies to Vancouver, Victoria, Nanaimo, Kelowna.

Changes to the Real Estate Services Act of B.C.

Changes to the Real Estate Services Act of B.C. were meant to take place by March 15th. The government wasn’t ready with courses for realtors, or with new contract forms paperwork, for the proposed substantive changes. The date has now been set for June 15th. Until then, it’s business as usual.

2018 seems to be a time of change. For Salt Spring and the Southern Gulf Islands, locked into a form of governance from 1974 (Islands Trust), we might appear to be a time tunnel, but these beautiful islands are on the doorstep of major centres (Vancouver, Victoria, Seattle), and being slightly “apart” does not mean isolation.

It is now stated that all knowledge we possess right this minute will be replaced within 18 months. Hmmm…. The creative response of the artist may be needed more than ever.

Meantime, technological shifts are streaking right along, in our post-Internet world: crypto currencies, block chain investing, 3-D printers, robotics, artificial intelligence (will those machines out-think us?), driverless cars, smart homes, smart phones, online lives, meshed reality…. Hmmm….

1974 is beginning to sound pretty good? It still exists on the Gulf Islands…thanks to the Islands Trust. One can always go out to visit and sample the “always on” world and then come back home to your chosen island.

Are you seeking a Salt Spring Island or Gulf Islands property? Call me. Your best interests are my motivation. Benefit from my knowledge, expertise, and negotiation skills.

Salt Spring offers an authentic artists community, a temperate climate that sustains vineyards, olive groves, small holding farming, plus encourages appreciation of the preserved natural beauty. “Discover Yourself Here” is the tag line of the local Chamber…and it’s true.

Market Analysis, July 2017, Salt Spring Island

July 2017

July begins our main season…both for tourism/visitor experiences and for real estate discoveries and sales.

In a way, Salt Spring Island is seasonless. People turn up at any time, and real estate sales occur in December and January as well as in August and September.

Salt Spring Island

Salt Spring Island


The Pacific Northwest Coast, though, does seem to call forth most activity and arrivals in the late summer/early fall time. Although gardens spill over into spring beauty in April/May/early June, the arrivals time for serious property seekers has evolved into that mid-July to end of October timeline.

Since mid-March, 2016, and even with interruptions from city off-shore tax ramifications and results of “real winter” (added up to 7 months of “pause”), we began to recover from that 8 year global economic downturn…and we have now arrived at an authentic seller’s market.

The classic definition of a seller’s market: low inventory plus high buyer demand. The outcome of a seller’s market: price increases.

That said, there are always opportunities for a buyer.

To own property on a Gulf Island, including on Salt Spring Island, is a long-term and enviable asset.

In 1974, the provincial government created the Islands Trust. It’s mandate: to preserve & protect the environmental beauties of the Gulf Islands, for the benefit of all B.C. residents. Through strict zoning/bylaws, the Trust effectively capped growth.

A limited inventory, both structurally and by market forces, does predict an escalation of prices, over time.

These early days of recovery in the real estate sector have seen most of the sales activity in the entry level priced properties. It may be that this action will now start to be seen in the mid-range to the upper tier priced options. What is also interesting, at this point: undeveloped land options have also seen sales action. A market recovery does always begin with sales in the entry level residential segment. As inventory thins, land options and a building project are considered.

July and August are key months for all businesses in our rural/recreational region…tourism is the main industry in the Gulf Islands. A successful visitor experience can result in a real estate sale.

Looking to sell? This may be an optimum time to consider listing your property. Low inventory coupled with buyer demand does favour a seller. Prices have stabilized. In many cases, properties are selling at list prices. In a few instances, if a property is unique and there are no comparables, there are small bidding wars. There are often back-up offers, due to lack of supply. That said, the buyers are, in the main, not “local”. They are looking in other coastal communities, too. Salt Spring has competition as a destination for a buyer. All sellers need to treat offers with respect. The Gulf Islands are discretionary/”by choice” areas.

Seeking to buy? A creative approach can often keep a property purchase at budget. It’s important, though, in an offer moment, that one puts in one’s “highest & best” offer response. A seller’s market means that the negotiating window that buyers enjoyed, two years ago, has been erased. There is competition from other buyers now. More information, on how to enjoy a successful property purchase, as a buyer? Call me!

There is always opportunity, regardless of a market trend in play at any specific time.

Market Analysis, February 2017, Salt Spring Island

February 2017

The real estate market shows its tone by mid-February, in our secondary home marketplace. It seems that the first six to seven weeks of a New Year continue the tenor of November and December of the previous year.

February 2017

A resurgence in sales, resulting in a very thin inventory and a stabilizing of prices….these are continuing signs of a market uptick. An increase in tax assessments that reflect the strong sales in the previous year…such assessments are mailed out to property owners in early January…is another marker. Multiple bids and higher selling price over list price: that has happened, if a property is unique, and is another sign of an authentic turn into seller’s market conditions.

It is wise to allow January and early February to unfold. The secondary home markets see their busiest moments between mid-March and end of October. Best, perhaps, to let the first weeks of a new year bring forward the clues to the rest of the year. By mid-February, the first whispers of the main trend start to be heard.

So, meantime, attend conferences that offer arrows of information about the future. Pay attention. Be aware of shifts and changes.

It’s the fallow field moment: the roots are busy, but very little shows above ground.

Salt Spring and the Gulf Islands remain extraordinary places to visit, to enjoy, to choose as special places to live. They are “seasonless” experiences. There is always something to discover and to be inspired by.

More information? Call me! Your best interests are my motivation…I will make sure that you see all property opportunities available in your preferred categories.

Pop by my office for free maps, weekly driveby lists for all listed properties, regardless of realtor or company or board affiliation. All current listings, totally up-to-date, to help you in your search. Welcome!

Market Analysis, December 2016, Salt Spring Island

A small geographic space with a world-sized heart…that’s a good description of Salt Spring Island and the Southern Gulf Islands.

Hastings House

Hastings House

The Islands Trust, created by the Provincial Government in 1974, with a mandate “to preserve and protect” the environmental beauties of the Gulf Islands, for the benefit of all B.C. residents, has effectively controlled growth on all the Islands via strict zoning/density bylaws.

Salt Spring Fire Department

Salt Spring Fire Department

If you go up in a floatplane, en route from Ganges Village on Salt Spring to Vancouver, you will see the large swathes of green on the Gulf Islands…a mix of provincial and federal park reserves, CRD park reserves, Conservancy protected lands, owner gifted or covenanted land…an amazing natural gift to visitors and residents alike. The Gulf Islands have all been preserved from unbridled development.

Important, though, in this non-municipal form of governance, that 1974 is paying attention to 2016. The big problem in cities and towns seems to revolve around affordable housing. This is a problem on Salt Spring, too.

There is a range of age-groups and affluence on Salt Spring…a broad spectrum of people desiring to live here. There are no work-rentals, no affordable buy-in living options, and very few choices for the aging boomers to move to, when downsizing. So…few starter homes, no rental apartments, few downsizing choices. Hmmm….

Salt Springers are being asked if they would like to become incorporated in a Gulf Islands Municipality structure. The two elected Trust people (two per island) & the Trust documents would remain in place. The day to day running of the island would be via an elected Council (one of whom would act as Mayor). Keep informed!

On Salt Spring, December brings craft fairs (WinterCraft at Mahon Hall, plus Fulford and Beaver Point Craft Fairs), seasonal theatre & choral events at ArtSpring, gallery openings, studio tours, light-up in Ganges Village, Christmas on Salt Spring events, pop up markets in the park…special menus in our superb restaurants. Seasonal delights await the visitor!

What about that real estate market?

And, what about that real estate market? As we close out 2016, one can look back and see an upticking market. After an 8 year downturn in the secondary home coastal markets (Sunshine Coast, Victoria, Vancouver Island, Gulf Islands), Salt Spring finally saw a shift into a dramatic sales volume increase between mid-March and the end of July. Buyers were mainly from Vancouver.

The unexpected and sudden government 15% tax for purchases by off-shore buyers, in metro-Vancouver, at the beginning of August, created a “pause” in all the secondary home coastal marketplaces…those sellers in Vancouver’s “hot market” had been the buyers in all the “by choice” regions. On Salt Spring, we “lost” August/September/early October. Then, around mid-October, things began to become busy once again.

The bulk of sales remain to a Vancouver buyer. Slowly, we are seeing renewed interest from Ontario. We may start to see sales from U.S. buyers…our low Canadian $ against the U.S. currency makes a real estate purchase here an interesting investment.

So many unknowables in the world: currency instability? Inflation/deflation? Equities or hard asset investment? Shifts in government? The impact of the post-Internet world just rolling on….

Change is the mantra of our immediate time.

Part of that: Boomers and Millennials. Different strokes for different folks. Important to understand the remarkably different ideas between these two significant demographics.

Stay tuned as well for the continuing changes to the real estate industry. Post-Internet dynamics change established models.

Salt Spring Island and the Gulf Islands are “by choice”/discretionary regions. The buyer has to first choose the specific Island…and then decide for the actual property on that particular Island. Time is a component of sales in all such secondary home/recreational areas…regardless of market trend in play.

Although it’s recent that sales volume increased (mid-March after 8 years of “flat”), prices have not yet increased. Stabilized, yes…and some properties have been selling for list price. Inventory is “thin”.

The 2017 real estate market kicks in here by mid-February. That’s just around the corner. At this time of year, some transactions will complete in January…perhaps for tax reasons. The process will have begun in this calendar year, though.

So…as we close 2016: strongest sales rhythm since 2006…very low inventory…price stability & sales at list price…all auguring for further improvement in the secondary home markets in 2017. The temperate climate and that slightly “apart” security of the Gulf Islands is also of appeal.

Market Analysis, November 2016, Salt Spring Island

Here we are, segueing into the last two months of 2016.

Although not as buoyant as in “the season” (May to October), the months of November and December still offer both important visitor experiences (tourism) and significant real estate sales.

For the first time in several years, Salt Spring appears to have returned to its former “seasonless” nature.

aubrey

People do visit throughout the year. The Gulf Islands are located in a micro-climate that is very temperate. Salt Spring offers a year round pleasing visitor experience and real estate transactions occur throughout the year.

For most of 2016 the buyer for Salt Spring properties came from Vancouver. These buyers had sold in Vancouver’s hot market. They were interested in buying down (in size & in price), putting money in the bank, and exploring a new location lifestyle.

This buyer profile plans to be a year round resident…which augurs well for year round community endeavours (such as the “shop local” movement). It is different from buyers in previous years (with Alberta & the U.S. delivering most purchasers), who may have been more seasonal.

The 15% tax for offshore buyers in Vancouver, law in early August, did immediately cool Vancouver’s marketplace. The impact on all coastal secondary home markets, including on Salt Spring, was also immediate. Vancouver’s sellers had been the buyers in all our coastal secondary home marketplaces.

A post-tax pause in activity took place here, on Salt Spring, in August & September. By mid-October, sales once again began to take place, although not with the same fervour seen in that mid-March to end of July period.

That said, inventory is low in all property categories. Prices have remained stable. Sales are often now occurring at list price. The bulk of sales still remain in step-in ready residential options.

Although essentially seasonless, it is busier between early May and mid-October, with tourism. I do think there is a connection, in secondary home/recreational regions, between a successful visitor experience and a real estate sale. Oddly, though, someone who views in July might wait till November to offer.

Secondary home/discretionary areas have their own rhythm, and it’s completely different from the patterns of a primary residence/city environment.

One chooses “for” a secondary home location…no one “has to” purchase on Salt Spring or on another Gulf Island. It often takes two & sometimes three visits for a buyer to decide on the location of a recreational purchase. Patience is always a requirement in real estate sales, regardless of market trend in play, in all discretionary regions.

At the end of October, the sales stats on Salt Spring were:

  • 28 sales up to 200,000
  • 32 sales between 200,000 & 300,000
  • 50 sales between 300 & 400,000
  • 56 sales between 400 & 500,000
  • 50 sales between 500 & 600,000
  • 31 sales between 600 & 700,000
  • 14 sales between 700 & 800,000
  • 13 sales between 800 & 900,000
  • 8 sales between 900,000 & one million
  • 20 sales between one and two million
  • 4 sales between two and three million
  • 2 sales between three and four million
  • 1 sale at four million even

(Most sales between one & four million were waterfronts).

The good news for Salt Spring: a return to busy days in tourism, with accommodations providers, restaurants, car & scooter rentals, kayak and whale-watching providers, retail shops, all saying it was their best season ever. That kind of buoyancy does have an impact on a real estate market.

Lots of events happening on Salt Spring in November and December: craft fairs, studio tours remain open, special events at ArtSpring, evening classes (always wanted to learn Japanese?), Salt Spring Folk Club monthly showcases, special harvest and celebratory menus at our great restaurants, WinterCraft at Mahon Hall, special Christmas/New Year events, and always the beauty of the Island, welcoming us all to simply enjoy.

It’s true that all world economies are a part of the globalization movement unleashed by the Internet shift in communication. The Internet changes concepts of boundaries. Initially, it may have appeared that “large population venues” were most important.

It’s also possible, though, that we are now seeing a move to localization, at the same time as continuing globalization. This may be the arrow all smaller communities have been seeking. Ganges Village on the same level as Toronto? Or New York? Or Beijing? Hmmm…. The personal and local becomes the global? Content really is king?

Many entrepreneurs are gathering on Salt Spring…ideas created here, coupled with a digital platform for presentation everywhere…that sounds like opportunity. And your thoughts are? Always welcome!