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Market Analysis, November 2018, Salt Spring Island

November 2018, Salt Spring

The Fall Real Estate Sales Season

November 2018, Market Analysis

The Fall real estate sales season separates into two parts: late summer/early Fall (end of August to mid-October) and late Fall (mid-October to early December).

Salt Spring is really a “seasonless” market…buyers turn up throughout the year, and sales from later in a calendar year can take place right into very early January of the following year.

Although tourism is most evident in late Spring/Summer months, and a successful visitor experience usually leads to a real estate purchase in our discretionary marketplace, the two don’t always occur at the same time.

It often takes two visits, if not three, for an interested potential buyer to decide to make an offer. There can be substantial time lags between visits…it can take one to two years to have a successful sales transaction, even in a buoyant real estate trend.

Where Do the Buyers Come From?

Buyers are not local. They look in other areas, too. It’s perhaps about “being sure” about the “where”.

Whether they live a ferry trip away or are a substantial flight distant, the buyer usually leaves some time between visits (a few weeks to several months). Their own lives come first and it just takes the time it takes to have a result in any secondary home/discretionary marketplace.

That said, we enter November 2018 with a continuing “thin” inventory of available listings.

Prices stabilized in Fall, 2017.

The provincial government’s February 20, 2018 budget included taxation measures to cool the Vancouver market.

These measures were also expanded to include Victoria, Nanaimo, and Kelowna.

Since mid-2016, Salt Spring has been chiefly dependent on Vancouver buyers. As a recipient marketplace, Salt Spring is affected by events in the areas where the buyers come from.

Anecdotally, it seems that people take around five months to get over anger at something and then to just get on with things. The lack of solid action between February 20 and September 15 has now been replaced with some increased activity. Hmmm….

The last two months of a year and the first two of the following year can be seen as a cohesive timeline.

A Market Trend for properties below 900,000

The market trend right now is showing most action in properties below 900,000. Over half the current listings are over one million. Will we see substantial price reductions at the point of an offer, in order for a transaction to proceed to completion? Will prices begin to suppress, to reflect those marked reductions now evident in Vancouver? Are we starting back into buyer’s market territory? Hmmm….

November 2018, Salt Spring Real Estate Market

Although there is a lovely sense of apartness to the Salt Spring lifestyle, no location is exempt from global issues. Currency concerns, tariff wars, prohibitive tax measures, etc…outcomes in countries around the world also end by impacting SSI. There’s that butterfly concept again.

Uncertainty is not good for any market. We began 2018 with a strong seller’s market underway. We are ending 2018 with the impacts of the coalition provincial government measures to suppress that Vancouver “hot market”. These measures, short term, have been successful.

At the same time, there does seem to be renewed interest out of Ontario (other provinces like to retire to coastal communities). Toronto does not have the tax suppression measures seen in Vancouver. That may augur well, going forward into 2019.

Albertans & US Buyers?

We are still not seeing Albertans or U.S. buyers. Before the economic meltdowns of late 2008, these two buyer profiles were 50% of our buyers. They were also seasonal. The Vancouver buyers want to live on Salt Spring. This may be why they take longer to choose the “where”. Salt Spring has competition from nearby Vancouver Island communities…why choose here? Why not there? Hmmm….

Late Fall-into-Winter season, a softer time for tourism, is also an opportunity. The fallow field moment allows for some creative thinking, to keep that Salt Spring allure in play. The outcomes of the “real” 21st Century are around us all…Salt Spring is not exempt from the profound technological changes that are now the surround sound of our lives. Yes…block chain technology is our present.

Initially, the Islands Trust, created by the provincial government in 1974, had the purpose of preserving the environmental beauties of the Gulf Islands, for the benefit of all B.C. residents…the Trust capped growth and effectively created a park-like ambiance. Now, in our always-on, always-connected world, perhaps the real value of visiting and of living on Salt Spring Island is the ability to enjoy an experiential lifestyle…and not a mere searchable environment.

The Gift of Reality

The gift of reality…real reality, not virtual, not augmented…perhaps that’s the point of 1974 meeting up with 2018?

Markets are always a wave of up and down. Over time, an investment in real estate, in an area where growth is strongly controlled, where a community blueprint pays homage to 1974 concerns about over-growth, will become an enclave area…it will rise in value. Important, then, to always be thinking five years out.

At this moment in time, listings remain low, buyer interest is very present, and the allure of Salt Spring as a destination is high. Projections for early 2019, in areas that deliver buyers to Salt Spring, are about a bounce back in real estate dynamics. Hmmm….

Meantime, November unrolls before us: craft fairs (WinterCraft), Village galleries showcasing their artists, studio tours, continuing Farmers markets, theatre and dance and choral presentations at ArtSpring, hiking/walking trails beckon, and kayaking adventures and sailing races delight year-round.

There’s always lots to see and to do, on special Salt Spring Island.

Enjoy the softer season!

Market Analysis, October 2018, Salt Spring Island

October 2018, Salt Spring

Ganges Harbour

Ganges Harbour

We are now well into Fall…all the Harvest events, Farmers Markets, farmgate stands are busy inviting us to enjoy this fruition time.

Early Fall is a mix of rainy days, sunny days with almost summer warmth in afternoons, darker mornings and evenings as the days shorten…plus crisp evenings perfect for star watching. And yes, that is Orion, the Hunter constellation, creeping up the sky…the herald of Winter.

The Fall Market in real estate on Salt Spring and the Southern Gulf Islands can be busy. Buyers may have come in late Spring/Summer to “look”, but they often wait till Fall to offer.

People looking at properties on Salt Spring, right now, are seeking permanent homes…they are not, in the main, looking for recreational options.

That’s actually a change. In previous years (up to the economic meltdowns of late 2008), we saw many Albertans & U.S. buyers on Salt Spring and the Southern Gulf Islands. These were recreational buyers…this was not their primary residence.

Post-recovery (mid 2016), the main buyer profile became a Vancouver buyer…who had sold in their venue for large dollars. They were seeking a destination to move to…they were not recreational buyers.

So….in seeking that “forever” destination, Salt Spring garnered competition: Sooke/Metchosin, South Cowichan, Courtenay/Comox…hmm…why your area? Why not theirs? Good question!

Islands Trust

On Salt Spring, which is a part of the provincial government mandated Islands Trust (in place since 1974), one understands that development is “capped”. What you buy is what you get. There will not be myriad new subdivisions opening up. A cap on growth also delivers (over time) an increase in valuations: low supply & generally high buyer demand does, in the end, result in price escalation.

Salt Spring offers a hospital, great ferry connections (three ferries with year-round schedules: one to Vancouver, one to Victoria, & one to mid-Vancouver Island), year-round regular sked floatplane services (to Vancouver Airport, to downtown Vancouver, to Seattle, to Maple Bay on Vancouver Island), 3 elementary, a Middle School, a state of the art Senior School, plus indoor pool, plus Arts Centre (ArtSpring), plus alternative health opportunities, plus a strong artistic/cultural base, and…the list goes on. Salt Spring is an eclectic and vibrant Island, with a year round lifestyle.

The real estate market on a Gulf Island, including on Salt Spring Island, is always dependent on outcomes in the areas that generate the buyers. Since mid-2016, that has been a Vancouver buyer.

The current provincial government has purposefully been making taxation decisions that will suppress a real estate market. Their intention was to cool the market in Vancouver, and also in Victoria, Nanaimo, Kelowna. Their measures have worked…sales have softened in Vancouver. As a recipient market, dependent on non-local buyers, Salt Spring may feel the effect of this suppression. It may take longer to achieve a sale and prices may reduce.

Kinder, Gentler Lifestyle

That said, there is a huge desire for Vancouver residents to leave the city and Salt Spring is one of the locations they consider. Perhaps the Vancouver potentials will simply end up accepting the prohibitive tax measures in their area, and decide to just get on with things. That strong desire to live a kinder, gentler lifestyle may continue to uphold the Salt Spring and Gulf Islands markets.

At this moment in time, early October, listing inventory remains thin and buyer desire remains high. Over half of the Salt Spring listings are priced over one million. A very thin residential inventory available below 900,000. Hmmm…. To remain in the entry level pricing category, a buyer might be best served by purchasing undeveloped land and building a cottage or studio. It is a struggle to find a residential property, below 750,000, that does not need serious renovation work.

Meantime, in this era of consistent and constant change, it is a gift to visit Salt Spring and the Gulf Islands…to experience a lifestyle rooted in 1974 (the year the Islands Trust was created, by the provincial government). If one can also consider living here, one immediately understands that all the necessities of a 21st Century experience are available…though wrapped in the charm of 1974. Fall is a superb season to discover the Gulf Islands.

Maracaibo Oceanfront Delight

Maracaibo Oceanfront Delight

“Maracaibo Oceanfront Delight” is exceptional oceanfront opportunity on special Salt Spring Island. Truly a gem.

In prestigious Maracaibo, close to all services and amenities, and yet in its own serenely “apart” world, Maracaibo offers docks for your boat, cottages for extra guests, tennis, and miles of hiking/walking trails. Your purchase in Maracaibo allows you to enjoy these superb options. It’s like living in your own private park.

Salt Spring Island | Maracaibo Oceanfront

Maracaibo Oceanfront

The home offered for sale enjoys sun, privacy, peace…with dramatic panoramic oceanview, trail to beach below, if desired, plus a custom design/build…many unique features, here. Furniture is all custom designed for the space, and may be purchased separately, if desired.

Formal entry | foyer, dramatic living | dining, feature fireplace, easy access to expansive decking, to expand summer living pleasures. Cook’s dream kitchen, and part of the entertaining space.

Two master bed sitting rooms, both ensuite, with spacious walk in closets. Guest bed/bath, plus office (fourth bedroom?). Wine room, and “hidden” storage. Media room, too! Attached double garage.

Home’s exterior offers a Zen |Scandanavian simplicity, that is mirrored in the interior’s modern take on the “west coast contemporary” design ethic. Absolutely Beautiful.

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