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December 2021, Salt Spring Island Market Analysis

December 2021, Salt Spring Island Real Estate Market

Rain and snow and then crisp days of brilliant sun, with mesmerizing ocean/islands/mountain viewscapes.

A time of seasonal lights, family traditions, special menus, craft fairs, markets, choral presentations…and a time of gifting to those who need it most.

Salt Spring and the Gulf Islands are offering the softer season delights to both locals and visitors. Take part! Support local.

December is also a time to look back at what has been and to look forward to what is emerging.

Strong Sales in 2021

There have been strong sales throughout 2021. In residential options, if listed below one million, there were several sales “over ask”. Only one property and several interested buyers…a recipe for bidding wars.

By Spring, higher end listings began to sell and also undeveloped land opportunities…as we edge to the end of the year, we have extremely low inventory in all property types and price points.

While the majority of sales are below 1.2 million, there are still many more sales above that mark, and that has not been seen since pre-2008 economic meltdowns. It seems that we have returned to a pattern not seen since 2004/05.

A societal rewrite

The flight from urban to rural is underway, and the authentic ability to work from home supports this. A societal rewrite appears to be happening. The outcomes of the changes that began with the first covid closures almost two years ago are not fully in place yet.

  • At this very beginning of December, there are approximately 55 residential listings, not separating out waterfront, view, townhome, farm, lot, acreage. The prices range from 159,900 to 14,000,000.
  • At this very beginning of December, there are approximately 28 land listings…not separating out waterfront, view, lot, acreage. Prices range from 259,000 to 4,900,000.
  • Together, that means approximately 83 listings are available for a buyer to consider. Usually we would see a total of 300+ listings.
  • At this very beginning of December, there have been approximately 265 sales to date, ranging between 199,000 and 5,850,000.
Salt Spring Island

Salt Spring Island

A desire to leave city congestion and seek a rural lifestyle continue to be the main propellers to action. The Gulf Islands offer a preserved environment, due to the Islands Trust form of governance (in place since 1974). Ask me about this important aspect.

The evolution of the internet so that it now fully supports the ability to work remotely is also a part of allowing the shift to smaller communities.

Owners in these areas do not want to be sellers, and that is also part of the reason for such low inventory. This is a true sellers market.

A Competitive Market

Buyers have to make their best efforts…they are in competition. They might need to consider renovation or building projects after purchase…buyers are not in the driver’s seat right now. Until there is more supply, this thin market will continue. It may take two years to see a further supply of housing come to market.

Concerns over inflation might also be a factor in land sales…real estate values keep pace with inflation. It is a strong hard asset. Land banking may be the reason for some land sales. Welcome your thoughts here.

There are always issues, of course. December, though, brings with it a season of light and joy.

Some loved Island events (such as Santa’s Carol Ship) were cancelled due to covid shut-downs, but many remain. Check the various holiday calendars for the Gulf Islands and enjoy the special events that are offered. Whether large or small celebrations, remember to enjoy the festive time. It is “the season”!

December 2020, Salt Spring Island Market Analysis

'Tis the Season, 2020

We have arrived at the very beginning of December, in this most awkward and disturbing year.

Covid, and its attendant government closures to flatten the curve of this potentially deadly virus, have caused several interruptive pauses throughout 2020.

Although the calendar says Winter starts officially around December 20th, we in the great Pacific Northwest Coast know that November signals the seasonal shift in our region.

‘Tis the Season (of 2020)

Real Estate on Salt Spring Up or Down?
Salt Spring Island in the Snow

A darker time of year, coupled with continuing covid closures, is disturbing to many…and afflicts many businesses struggling to survive.

It’s rare that the Southern Gulf Islands get snow…when it happens, islanders love to take photos…and when it occurs, it doesn’t last long. I always think that Winter in this area is like a long late Fall or a lengthy early Spring…depending on one’s point of view. Shorter days are a factor.

Covid has cancelled the seasonal traditional pleasures at this December time of year. It is so important to listen to the shop local, think local, be local messaging in each small community. The hope is that visitor-centric communities will see business survival over the winter season.

People in many locales are decorating, putting seasonal lights up, and doing it earlier. A great idea! To be a billboard of light, for those passing our homes, gives such pleasure…maybe that’s our holiday gift to family, friends, neighbours.

How is Covid-19 affecting Salt Spring Island?

And what about real estate in the time of covid? That first closure, on March 12th, which lasted for 10 weeks, and a bit longer on the Gulf Islands (travel is tied to ferry schedules and they had to reinstate routes and sailings), signaled a lifestyle change. City dwellers, able to work via the internet and thus able to choose a rural area for their year-round living choice, began to check out all the secondary home/rural regions.

Snow on Lake in BC
Snow on Lake on Salt Spring Island, BC

Hong Kong Chinese, many with Canadian passports, looked beyond the provincial government tax suppression measures that had caused a pause in Vancouver sales (between 2017 and 2019). Suddenly, Vancouver sellers were turning up in all secondary home regions as buyers, and this also ignited sales on Salt Spring and the Gulf Islands.

Is the Real Estate Market Up or Down in BC?

Locally, the market clicked into place around June 23rd, for residential properties. Vancouver sellers had sold a house and needed a house at this end. To begin with, most sales were below 800,000…and then the price point went steadily up to around 1.4. A handful sold between 2 & 3 million. There may have been price reductions en route to an offer and there were still many price reductions at the point of an offer.

Undeveloped Land On the Gulf Islands

Real Estate on Salt Spring Up or Down?
Real Estate on Salt Spring Up or Down?

Now, at the beginning of December, the inventory for residential listings is exceptionally low. Very recently, we have seen buyers starting to consider buying an undeveloped land parcel and to begin a building project. This usually occurs as soon as good residential options have evaporated. It often presages, too, price escalation. At this moment, prices have stabilized.

So, at this very beginning of December…approximately…

  • 55 residential listings
  • 66 land listings.
  • 220 “solds to date”

The inventory of available listings remains extremely low and sales volume has increased over the year, in spite of various covid-related closures.

Salt Spring Island Market Trajectory 2020-2021

Projections are calling for continuing interest in rural regions, and with price increases for any new listings may be on the rise. It is not expected that inventory will increase substantially. Low inventory and high buyer demand usually lead to price escalation. It may take until late February to see the tone of 2021.

Rare whiteout day on Salt Spring Island
Rare whiteout on Salt Spring Island

When will the Canada-U.S. Border Reopen

No place is apart from global outcomes. A change of government in the U.S. will affect Canada. A majority NDP government in B.C. will affect provincial outcomes.? A vaccine against covid will bring change. A re-opened Canada-U.S. border may allow the re-emergence of a traditional buyer in the Gulf Islands. Change, change, everywhere a change…..

Hard asset investment may be another reason why real estate is looked on favourably right now. What I call “land bankers” are now recently turning up to look at undeveloped land parcels. The Islands Trust, a provincial government body created in 1974, did cap growth through its strict zoning bylaws. This cap on growth, over time, is appealing to that investor-buyer.

The season/weather is actually irrelevant in our Gulf Islands area. Although more people might visit Salt Spring and the Gulf Islands in the summer months, it is very usual to see Fall-Winter offers/sales. The Gulf Islands are “seasonless” regions and real estate interest and outcomes occur year-round.

How may I help you to fulfill your Gulf Islands and Salt Spring Island desired real estate outcomes? Look forward to hearing from you.