Tag Archives: all things salt spring

Market Analysis, April 2018, Salt Spring Island

April 2018, Salt Spring

Welcome to my world!

I am lucky to be able to live and to work on Salt Spring Island. I hope you enjoyed this video by a Vancouver based travel writer…who hopes to one day also live on Salt Spring. I thought he caught the essence of this magical place.

April is perhaps the true beginning of our real estate market “season”. Whispers of the year’s tone can appear around March Break, but the main action becomes evident by April.

We entered Spring with a very thin inventory of listings, in both residential and undeveloped land options. A lack of inventory, coupled with renewed buyer desire, does result in price escalation…the economic dynamic of supply and demand.

The “Speculation Tax” in the BC Real Estate Market

There can be interruptions to a market flow…the suggested speculation tax mentioned in the provincial government’s February budget appeared to be about to become such a non-market interruption. However, in late March, the government agreed to exempt the Gulf Islands from this tax. Initially, the capital regional district boundaries had put the speculation (vacancy tax) onto the Southern Gulf Islands, too.

The Islands Trust (the form of governance since 1974, on the Gulf Islands) created a secondary home/recreational/discretionary region.

Lack of affordable housing and work-rental choices are issues everywhere…Salt Spring’s approved affordable housing projects are not able to proceed because of a CRD water moratorium. The CRD needs to address this. More info? Call me.

April is an interesting month…it starts with the cool of March and ends with the largesse of almost-May. Every day is longer, softer temperatures encourage “real Spring” to energize us, and the exterior world welcomes us back.

Inventory

Whether inventory grows again and stabilizes prices or whether inventory remains thin and prices start to rise, Salt Spring and the Southern Gulf Islands remain their serenely beautiful selves…and with some creative thinking, it is always possible to seek ownership. Some ideas? Call me! There is always opportunity.

We live in a time of shift. Salt Spring and the Southern Gulf Islands enjoy proximity to major centres…they are apart but are not isolated.

Artificial Intelligence brings new technological benefits to our lives. The Gulf Islands, including Salt Spring Island, are time tunnels to previous times. Frozen by the 1974 Islands Trust mandate (“to preserve and protect” the environmental beauties of the Gulf Islands, for the benefit of all B.C. residents), the islands are all about direct experience of the natural world.

Salt Spring welcomes you to enjoy its parks, hiking/walking trails, farmgate organic produce, farmers markets, winery tastings, cheesemaker farm, art galleries, studio tours, live music venues, theatre experiences, marine discoveries…spas, alternative health opportunities, yoga retreats…great restaurants to tempt the palate…feed the body, the mind, the soul on these tranquil Gulf Islands.

Market Analysis, March 2018, Salt Spring Island

March 2018, Salt Spring

Salt Spring Island

Salt Spring Island

March…it brings with it “real Spring” (the one marked on the calendar), plus is the beginning of our main grid of sales activity.

Beginning of the Canadian Market Season

March Break to the Canadian Thanksgiving Weekend (mid-October) signals our “season” in our secondary home/discretionary/recreational region.

The busiest months are July, August, September, of course, and these months also encompass high tourist season, but holiday weekends in earlier months, and school holidays (March Break), begin the rhythms.

March is beginning with very little inventory for sale. High buyer demand (in the entry level residential segment) continued throughout January/February, in spite of weather hesitations. There may be some few new listings yet to come onstream, but there is much less choice for a buyer.

The definition of a buyer’s market: lots of listings and very few buyers. A seller’s market? Few listings and many buyers. This scenario often leads to higher list and sale prices.

Sellers and listing agents do not set markets. Buyers do that. Strong buyer demand and few purchase choices create rising values. The economic maxim of supply and demand is a real one.

There are always opportunities for a buyer in a seller’s market. If interested in a property, though, one must be prepared to act. Bidding wars are rare on a Gulf Island…but back-up offers do come into play.

How will new tax affect real estate market?

The new coalition provincial government raised the offshore purchase tax to 20%, at their February budget. It still applies to metro-Vancouver, but now will also apply to Victoria, to Nanaimo, and to Kelowna. For Salt Spring, many buyers are from Vancouver and the Lower Mainland. Will the tax create a hesitation in sales there, as the initial tax did in August, 2016? Those sellers in Vancouver have become many of our Island buyers.

The provincial government is stating that they are bringing in empty home taxes, in an effort to stop speculation…in their words: to stop people treating the housing market as a stock market. They tie this to the affordable housing crunch, which is a feature of all communities, but this also involves the B.C. Tenancy Act (many people choose not to rent their homes).

I write these market updates at the beginning of each month, and do updates via my blog, as the month proceeds. Check out my blog for March 1st. It gives the Vancouver Real Estate Board’s recap of the February Budget. There is some confusion right now, but the offshore purchase tax (at the moment) only applies to Vancouver, Victoria, Nanaimo, Kelowna.

Changes to the Real Estate Services Act of B.C.

Changes to the Real Estate Services Act of B.C. were meant to take place by March 15th. The government wasn’t ready with courses for realtors, or with new contract forms paperwork, for the proposed substantive changes. The date has now been set for June 15th. Until then, it’s business as usual.

2018 seems to be a time of change. For Salt Spring and the Southern Gulf Islands, locked into a form of governance from 1974 (Islands Trust), we might appear to be a time tunnel, but these beautiful islands are on the doorstep of major centres (Vancouver, Victoria, Seattle), and being slightly “apart” does not mean isolation.

It is now stated that all knowledge we possess right this minute will be replaced within 18 months. Hmmm…. The creative response of the artist may be needed more than ever.

Meantime, technological shifts are streaking right along, in our post-Internet world: crypto currencies, block chain investing, 3-D printers, robotics, artificial intelligence (will those machines out-think us?), driverless cars, smart homes, smart phones, online lives, meshed reality…. Hmmm….

1974 is beginning to sound pretty good? It still exists on the Gulf Islands…thanks to the Islands Trust. One can always go out to visit and sample the “always on” world and then come back home to your chosen island.

Are you seeking a Salt Spring Island or Gulf Islands property? Call me. Your best interests are my motivation. Benefit from my knowledge, expertise, and negotiation skills.

Salt Spring offers an authentic artists community, a temperate climate that sustains vineyards, olive groves, small holding farming, plus encourages appreciation of the preserved natural beauty. “Discover Yourself Here” is the tag line of the local Chamber…and it’s true.

Market Analysis, November 2017, Salt Spring Island

November 2017, Salt Spring

Salt Spring Island, November, 2017, Salt Spring

Salt Spring Island

There’s a total of 170 listed properties (November 2017, Salt Spring) at this moment (counting only residential of all types & undeveloped residentially zoned land of all types…not including commercial or industrial zoned listings).

In a “slow/downturn” market, there can be between 380 to 420 listings (residential and undeveloped lots/acreages).

The listing inventory, since mid-March 2016 to current date, has thinned out. Mid-March 2016 was the very first sign of a small recovery on Salt Spring, after the long 8 year downturn.

It was a very slow sales volume increase, however, between then & now, with several non-market driven “pauses”.

The 15% offshore tax in early August, 2016, for metro-Vancouver, for example, also completely stopped the secondary home regions recovery…those Vancouver sellers had become the buyers on Sunshine Coast, on Vancouver Island, and on Salt Spring Island. On Salt Spring, Aug/Sept/Oct, of 2016, were “lost”.

Then: “real winter” (between Dec 3 & May 15) struck: all over the Coast. Both tourism & real estate viewings on Salt Spring were dramatically slowed.

Almost a 9 month pause, then, between August 2016 & May 2017.

The Summer Market was 6 weeks late…it usually starts in last week of June, & did not kick in until July 15, 2017. There were pauses within the summer season, as well…due to smoke from both Interior & Washington State fires…again, affected the whole Coast, but also caused significant delays in Salt Spring activity.

That 6 weeks later scenario seemed to carry into the Fall Market, too. Perhaps October was really September!

August 2017 may also have seen a hesitation in activity due to the incorporation vote on Sept 9th…several people, on either side of the question, were waiting for the vote outcome. There was a lot of off island media coverage leading up to the vote. It may have caused a bit of a “digestion” pause throughout September. Difficult to track these kinds of hesitations.

All these fits and starts sales rhythms aside, the main sales on Salt Spring Island remain below 850,000.

November 2017, Salt Spring

To date, the sales are as follows, from January 1, 2017 to October 31, 2017:

  • 21 sales between 95,000 & 199,500.
  • 25 sales between 200,000 & 299,000.
  • 31 sales between 305,000 & 396,000.
  • 43 sales between 400,000 & 489,000.
  • 30 sales between 500,000 & 599,000.
  • 20 sales between 605,000 & 690,000.
  • 16 sales between 700,000 & 795,000.
  • 12 sales between 800,000 & 899,000.
  • 6 sales between 900,000 & 950,000.
  • 25 sales between Private Island Estate.
  • 4 sales between 2.2 and 2.5.

The sales between one & two million were either waterfronts (both ocean & lake) houses, or very large farms (20 to 104 acres), or large ocean view acreages/houses. The majority of them were waterfronts.

The sales over two million were waterfronts (3 ocean & one lake), with houses.

These sale price ranges in November 2017, Salt Spring, do not include price reductions…they are the completed sale price points. In some cases, in the over a million category, there were substantial reductions at the point of a sale.

What is the main buyer profile around Salt Spring Island?

The main buyer profile is still out of Vancouver/Lower Mainland. Alberta & U.S. (used to be 50% of our buyers) are still not in evidence. A smattering appear from Ontario, U.K., Europe…but they do not always focus on Salt Spring as a final destination choice. Most Vancouver buyers are seeking to buy down, if they have achieved a good sale price at their end.

It takes time to sell any property in all the secondary home markets, and this is true of Salt Spring, too. The first step is to choose “for” the Island…and then to choose for a property. It usually takes 2 visits (often 3), before a buyer acts on a specific property.

A showings pattern is about the buyer…not about sellers, or properties, or realtors. It just takes the time it takes. Time is a very significant element in every secondary home market transaction.

Properties still remain on the market here for lengthy timeframes, before capturing a sale. Price can sometimes be an allure factor…though not always.

So…here we are…in the closing weeks of a calendar year. Low inventory in all property types and prices. Sellers often achieving list price or close to it. Back up offers in place, if not small bidding wars. A sense that 2018 will see the beginning of serious price escalation, based on that thin inventory/buyer demand scenario.

Hmmm…it does appear that in November 2017, Salt Spring and the Southern Gulf Islands have returned to the buoyant times between 2002 and 2005. A nine year downturn now being followed by a nine year uptick? Stay tuned.

March 2012, Salt Spring Island Market Analyses

It seems, in our secondary home/discretionary area, that January & February are often a continuation of the rhythm of November & December, of the previous year.

March, then, usually begins the pattern of the current year, and the number of March Break arrivals to view property, and possibly to make offers, forecasts the summer season…busy at March-Break-into-Easter usually means brisk sales time from mid-May to mid-September (our traditional “season”).

We may be in year seven of a seven to ten year cycle, which means a slow upticking in sales volume may already have begun. To date, there have been fourteen firm sales, since beginning of January. Ten have been under 620,000…most below 500,000.

This steady sales pattern mainly in the entry level residential category has been a feature of the Salt Spring sales picture for about two years…this busier first two months is perhaps a sign of consistency to the marketplace…a good feature, indeed.

Sales in undeveloped land options have not yet improved. In a downmarket, buyers are not seeking a holding property nor do they want a building project. The slow roll-back of the HST tax may help in the new home category
, particularly in city or large town environments, with developments & spec housing…in discretionary/secondary home areas, where building projects are custom & personal options, the HST repeal may or may not create activity.

The upper tier priced luxury residential segment also remains quiet. In some few cases on Salt Spring & the Gulf Islands, extraordinarily motivated sellers have accepted very low prices, well below intrinsic or replacement values & also below tax assessments. Personal need is not noted by appraisers; they look at the sale price, only. These lower prices will affect stats.

In many cases, in the luxury segment, local realtors have encouraged very broad price reductions, in an effort to jump start action from a buyer. These reductions do not appear to create buyer interest. In a secondary home marketplace, a purchase is about choice…and that choosing can be deferred until the buyer sees a definite sign of a hard asset recovery. Buying is an action propelled by confidence.

Price reductions do affect all sellers, however, as it is essential to be seen to be competitive in pricing, when a buyer might be looking at equivalent properties, also for sale.

Thinning inventories may lead to price stability and then to slowly increasing prices.

Nothing ever stays down (or up)…that equilibrium moment, when the teeter-totter of a market cycle appears to be evenly balanced, is of very short duration.

Low mortgage rates are not the motivator to action that one might think. It is buyer confidence that creates a market response. Sellers and realtors do not create a market…buyers do.

In a city market, there are usually more entry level options available, overall, and correspondingly fewer luxury choices. In a secondary home/discretionary and resort-based area, the opposite is true. Such areas attract buyers lucky enough to own more than one property, or purchasers who, because of the Internet, can choose to live anywhere in the world and thus could work from a Gulf Island, or perhaps the buyer is someone who has done well elsewhere & can now choose a Gulf Island to retreat/”retire” to…it’s a specialized buyer profile who is in a position to create their personal dream.

A purchase in an area like Salt Spring Island and the Gulf Islands is about choice…and choice in timing is also a part of this. The buyer sets the pace in a discretionary marketplace.

The Gulf Islands are not municipalities…they are governed by the government body known as the Islands Trust. The Trust has been in place since 1974, & development on all the Islands is firmly controlled by strict zoning/density bylaws.

Bowen Island voted to become a Gulf Islands Municipality some years ago…the Trust & its bylaws remain in place, however. Salt Spring might consider this outcome, too.

There is an impression that the international market is moving out of cash right now and back into hard assets/commodities, including real estate. The continuing unraveling of the global economic picture has an impact on every region. We are in the post-Internet world, vitally interconnected, and the Global Village is with us. In difficult times, hard asset investment is understood as a way to protect capital.

An interesting sidebar to the post-Internet world is that it has not only erased time & geography, but has also made “someplace” in competition with “everyplace”. It’s a big world, after all! Choice, again….

Salt Spring Island and the Gulf Islands enjoy scenic beauty and environmental protection. They enjoy all of the amenities necessary to partake of life in the “real” 21st Century, and yet experience the allure of “yesteryear”. They have easy access to major centres, yet offer a village lifestyle. A temperate climate creates opportunity to be self-sustaining…the 10K diet is alive & well, here. A strong arts community, a dynamic cultural life, an oceanfront pleasure…these islands are in the heart of the best protected boating waters in the world. One is gifted to be able to live in this still very undiscovered area.

All Things Salt Spring | Liverpool Pete

Liverpool Pete | Mr. Bojangles

Liverpool Pete, Li Read & Dave Gordon – acoustic cover of Jerry Jeff Walker’s Mr.Bojangles.

Li Read & Liverpool Pete talk about the Golden Ratio, the Letter Press & Mr. Bojangles. You can hear Liverpool Pete’s version of Mr. Bojangles by Jerry Jeff Walker here: (oh… and Pete… in about 1 week, type in Google … or better yet… just click this link to Liverpool Pete’s rendition of Mr. Bojanges — in 1 week) 🙂

Liverpool Pete, Li Read & Dave Gordon – acoustic cover of Jerry Jeff Walker’s Mr.Bojangles.

[podcast]http://lireadgroup.com/blog/wp-content/podcasts/Li-Liverpool-Pete.mp3[/podcast]